In the Motor City Football league, Patriot Killer took the 9th spot in the draft order. With 22 rounds to navigate, they mustered a C- grade, leaving room for improvement. Projected to finish 5th with a 7-7-0 record, they'll need to step up their game to secure a playoff spot among the top 6 teams. Despite facing the 10th toughest schedule, they're determined to overcome the odds.
Patriot Killer made some interesting choices in their draft. Their best pick was Mark Andrews, snagged at 52 when their ADP was 33. That's some serious value! However, they also had a questionable move, reaching for Russell Wilson at 89 when their ADP was 131. It's a risky gamble that could pay off or leave them scratching their heads. Additionally, they went all-in on a single team, drafting J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and Zay Flowers from the same squad. Will this strategy lead to domination or disaster? Only time will tell.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 21
A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.
- Round 2, Pick 12 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 754
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 37
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 4, Pick 32 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 78
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 283
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 6, Pick 52 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 91
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
- Round 7, Pick 69 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 53 - 2022 Rank: 65
Sanders signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers in March, cashing in after a career year in 2022 which included 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 17 games for Philadelphia. He won't be playing in a top offense anymore, but with the Panthers, he'll make far more money and have a secure rushing workload. The Eagles had a variety of options at their disposal and would sometimes go away from Sanders in the game plan, which made his production inconsistent even in 2022. He'll likely average fewer yards per carry with the Panthers, but he may also get more overall touches after averaging between 13.5 and 16.4 per game in four seasons with the Eagles. Chuba Hubbard looms as a capable alternative, though he might get the bulk of his work on passing downs where Sanders is less useful. While that might come with the risk of getting phased out of the offense when the Panthers abandon the run, it's also possible Sanders gets more involved in the passing game (only 20 catches last year) on early downs.
- Round 8, Pick 72 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 58
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 9, Pick 89 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 25
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
- Round 10, Pick 92 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 157 - 2022 Rank: 133
The Rams had a terrible offensive line last year, and their running game was stuck in neutral. As a result, Stafford paid the price with 29 sacks in 11 games. Last year, the team added Allen Robinson in free agency, but either the team didn't properly use him, or Robinson was on the downside of his career. So with very little going his way, Stafford was consistently getting hit, which kept him unable to put up consistent fantasy points. Stafford's 10:8 TD:INT ratio was his worst since 2012. And due to the constant pressure, his 6.9 yards per attempt was significantly lower than any of his last three seasons. Although Stafford had at least 240 passing yards in each of his first six games, he failed to crack 190 in any of his last three. He then suffered a neck injury and was shut down for the season. Going into 2023, Stafford may see an improvement from the offensive line, as a number of starters will return from injuries, and the Rams added guard Steve Avila in the second round of the draft. Coach Sean McVay will have had time to consider different ways for Stafford to attack defenses while hopefully getting the ball out of his hands quicker to keep him healthy. Still, the Rams seem a bit of a rebuilding mess. Stafford shouldn't be considered more than a backup in typical fantasy leagues.
- Round 11, Pick 109 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 192
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 112 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 44
Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,
DEF - Round 13, Pick 129 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 139
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 14, Pick 132 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 136
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 15, Pick 149 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 169
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 16, Pick 152 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 110 - 2022 Rank: 248
Collins finished third on the Texans with 66 targets last season, and he's remarkably the only player among the team's top six in that category returning in 2023 for a remade Houston passing attack that also will be helmed by a new QB -- rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud. Brandin Cooks (93 targets in 2022) and Chris Moore (74) both left for greener pastures, but the Texans brought in a bevy of WRs to replace those outgoing options. Houston signed Robert Woods and Noah Bown in free agency, drafted Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round), and should get 2022 second-round pick John Metchie back after he missed his entire rookie season. The Texans also have a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, so Collins won't have much of an incumbent advantage, but the 2021 third-round pick should be ticketed for a prominent role if he can stay healthy after missing 10 games due to injuries over his first two seasons. In the 24 games he played, Collins caught 70 of 126 targets for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but his efficiency could improve significantly if Stroud proves to be an upgrade over Davis Mills, who remains on the roster after starting at QB in each of Collins' first two seasons. Collins' 6-foot-4 frame could theoretically make him an enticing target in the red zone, though such success hasn't materialized in what's been a lackluster Houston offense in recent years.
- Round 17, Pick 169 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 183 - 2022 Rank: 135
Wilson re-signs with Miami to spend a sixth straight season in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Four of those years were in San Francisco, where Wilson proved himself as a more than capable rotational option. Durability issues have remained constant as well, though. Wilson hasn't managed to suit up for double-digit games since 2020, and he's only managed that feat twice in his NFL career. After joining the Dolphins mid-season via trade from San Francisco last year, Wilson established himself in a roughly even timeshare alongside Raheem Mostert, though he was the volume leader prior to injuring his hip. Miami could proceed with an identical layout to open the 2023 slate, with Mostert also having re-signed this offseason, but rookie third-round pick De'Von Achane reportedly began pushing for opportunities early in OTAs. Wilson is a solid pass-catcher and showed elite efficiency last season (5.1 YPC), but he'll open this year on injured reserve and thus is set to miss at least four games.
- Round 18, Pick 172 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 752
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 19, Pick 189 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 748
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 20, Pick 192 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 251 - 2022 Rank: 107
Mayfield has been right around a 60% passer in his career. As a rookie in 2018, he completed 63.8% and then last year in five games with Sean McVay, he completed 63.6%, the second-best mark of his career. Actually, his 2020 in-season was probably his best (his rookie year was close) when he attempted just 486 passes in a run-heavy offense but had a 26:8 TD: INT. He played with a messed-up shoulder in 2021. And then last year he went between Carolina and the Rams. It seems that during his time in Cleveland, he didn't mesh with Odell Beckham because Beckham was one of the greatest freelancers of our time while Mayfield needs plays to run on schedule. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Chris Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but with two excellent weapons in Godwin and Mike Evans, he has potential for top-24 QB value.
DEF - Round 21, Pick 209 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 247 - 2022 Rank: 88
Of the Colts' seven Pro Bowlers in 2021, three played on defense. All three of DT DeForest Buckner, LB Shaquille Leonard and CB Kenny Moore are still on the team, but Leonard and Moore both missed extensive time due to injury in 2022. Indianapolis drafted CB Julius Brents in the second round to replace the departing Stephon Gilmore, but the biggest key to improvement on defense may be out of DC's Gus Bradley's control. The Colts gave up the third-most PPG (25.1) last year despite being in the middle of the pack in yards allowed due to the team's turnovers and struggles on offense. Potential improvement on the offensive side spearheaded by rookie QB Anthony Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor -- if the latter's feud with the front office is sorted out -- could lead to a fresher and more effective Indianapolis defense in 2023.
- Round 22, Pick 212 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 273 - 2022 Rank: 217
Lutz averaged nearly 30 made field goals during his first four years with the Saints. Unfortunately, the team's offense regressed the last two years. As a result, Lutz converted just 23 field goals in each of those seasons. In addition, he posted his two worst seasons in terms of field-goal accuracy. Now Lutz gets a chance to redeem himself with a new team after the Saints traded him to Denver, where he'll be reunited with coach Sean Payton.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
