In a draft that can only be described as a comedy of errors, the Night Hawk managed to secure a solid D- grade, proving that mediocrity is their middle name. With a projected record of 2-12-0, it's safe to say that this team won't be soaring to new heights anytime soon. The Night Hawk's draft order of 7th didn't do them any favors, as they struggled to make wise choices throughout the 22 rounds. However, they did manage to make one shining moment with their best pick, snagging Kenneth Walker III at 54, beating out their ADP of 45. It's a small victory in a sea of questionable decisions.
While the Night Hawk may have had a glimmer of hope with their best pick, their worst pick quickly brought them back down to earth. Taking a player at 27 who had an ADP of 79 is a bold move, to say the least. It's almost impressive how they managed to reach so far for a player who may not live up to expectations. With a projected finish of 10th and a schedule difficulty that ranks as the toughest in the league, the Night Hawk will have their wings full trying to navigate their way to victory. Maybe they should consider changing their team name to the Night Flock, because they're going to need all the help they can get.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 17
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 28
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 29
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 4, Pick 34 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 82 - 2022 Rank: 118
Pierce was a pleasant surprise for the Texans as a rookie, even if the 2022 fourth-round pick's heroics didn't translate to many wins. After averaging 5.5 YPC as part of a platoon in college at Florida, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four TDs in 13 games for the Texans before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Pierce's 4.3 YPC in Houston was nothing to write home about, but that production came in the context of few threats in the passing game to keep defenses from keying on the run. The Texans are hoping to have changed that by drafting QB C.J. Stroud second overall in 2023. While they also bolstered their backfield depth by signing former Bills RB Devin Singletary, Pierce should continue to handle the majority of the workload as long as he's healthy. To that end, Pierce has been practicing at full speed at OTAs, suggesting he has long since put the ankle injury behind him. There's also room for further growth as a pass catcher for Pierce, as Houston still has an underwhelming receiving corps. Pierce caught 30 of 39 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.
- Round 5, Pick 47 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 129
Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.
- Round 6, Pick 54 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 76
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 7, Pick 67 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 363
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 8, Pick 74 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 90
A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.
- Round 9, Pick 87 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 153
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 10, Pick 94 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 55
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 11, Pick 107 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 745
The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.
- Round 12, Pick 114 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 259 - 2022 Rank: 686
- Round 13, Pick 127 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 141
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 14, Pick 134 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 149 - 2022 Rank: 465
Love is an unknown commodity for fantasy football this year. He's had 83 pass attempts during his short time in the league. Love will be taking over an offense that has questions at tight end and wide receiver. It's possible that Christian Watson will be a star, but it's also possible that he's just an outstanding deep threat. At 6-4, 219, Love has demonstrated decent mobility. That could give Love a stable rushing floor while the passing game rounds into form, though a larger sample size of rushing attempts would be nice. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether that was due to decline or the talent that surrounded him is uncertain. Also, Green Bay has been a run-heavy team for the past couple years, and their quarterback pass attempts have been below league average. Drafting Love as a boom-or-bust option makes sense, due to the uncertainty that surrounds him. He also could be a player who gets better as the season moves forward and he gets more experience.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 147 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 263 - 2022 Rank: 87
The Seahawks were in the top half of the NFL with 45 sacks (ninth) and 14 interceptions (14th). However, they allowed 401 points, which was the seventh-most in the league.Adding back Bobby Wagner this offseason was a huge boost to what was a terrible run defense, though fellow linebacker Jordyn Brooks (knee) may not be ready for the season. Overall, the Seahawks should be better against the run. After drafting Devon Witherspoon with the fifth pick in the draft to go along with Tariq Woolen, Seattle may have two excellent cornerbacks. That would also allow them to dedicate more resources to stop the run. The pass rush is nothing special, so they'll need their corners to play well. They also have three safeties who are excellent in coverage. This is a defense on the rise, and they can emerge as a top-half defense. They should be able to improve their points against from last year while maintaining similar levels of sacks and interceptions.
- Round 16, Pick 154 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 161 - 2022 Rank: 428
Howell made only one start last year as a rookie, and that came in Week 18, but the North Carolina product appears poised to begin 2023 as the starting quarterback for Washington. The team cleared the way for the 2022 fifth-round pick to take over by releasing Carson Wentz and letting Taylor Heinicke walk in free agency. Howell has the arm talent to succeed in the NFL, but he lacks game-changing mobility and has to prove he can diagnose coverage quickly enough to take full advantage of a solid group of wideouts led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Commanders brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, and the former Kansas City offensive coordinator will likely focus on setting Howell up for quick strikes rather than leave him hanging in the pocket behind what was one of the league's poorer offensive lines in 2022. If Howell stumbles badly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but the younger QB will get every chance to show he can solve the franchise's long-running woes at the position.
DEF - Round 17, Pick 167 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 89
The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.
- Round 18, Pick 174 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 204
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
DEF - Round 19, Pick 187 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 71
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.
- Round 20, Pick 194 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 250 - 2022 Rank: 174
"The Leg" has converted 82.1% of his FGAs in his 12-year career, but his accuracy from long ranges has been less than steady in recent seasons. The arrival of QB Aaron Rodgers could set Zeurlein up to once again operate in a high-powered offense, as he got used to with the Cowboys and Rams. Zuerlein will need things to go right on offense for his production to skyrocket, but there's plenty of reason for optimism in projecting the Jets. Of course, there's also risk things go sideways for the aged Rodgers and Zeurlein.
- Round 21, Pick 207 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 158
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
- Round 22, Pick 214 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: 779
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
