In a draft that can only be described as a descent into fantasy football purgatory, Doc's Devils managed to secure a solid D grade. With a projected record of 3-11-0, it seems like this team is destined for a season of disappointment. Despite having the 3rd pick in the draft, they failed to capitalize on their early position and ended up with a roster that leaves much to be desired. Their projected points of 3284.82 are as lackluster as their draft performance, and to add insult to injury, they have the 2nd toughest schedule out of all 10 teams. It's going to be a long and arduous road for Doc's Devils.
While there were a few glimmers of hope in their draft, such as snagging Dallas Goedert at pick 98 when their ADP was 57, those moments were overshadowed by some questionable decisions. The worst pick of the draft goes to the selection of Deshaun Watson at pick 38, despite their ADP being a lowly 89. It's clear that the devil was in the details for Doc's Devils. To make matters worse, they ended up drafting not one, not two, but three players from the same team. Perhaps they were hoping for some sort of supernatural synergy, but it's more likely that they just weren't paying attention. With all these missteps, it's no wonder that Doc's Devils are projected to finish 9th in the league. Looks like the devil's luck has run out for this team.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 15
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 33
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 3, Pick 23 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 68
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 213
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 5, Pick 43 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 51
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 6, Pick 58 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 66 - 2022 Rank: 96
London had a great start and a great finish to his rookie season, but the nine games that fell between those periods of production were uninspiring. In the first three games of the season, the eighth overall pick averaged 5.3 receptions for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns. Over the last five games of the year, he fell below 70 yards just once. In between those two stretches, he had 40 or fewer yards in nine consecutive games. Some of his downswing may have been due to Marcus Mariota being the QB, especially after defenses had an idea how the Falcons wanted to 'run' their offense. However, the fact that London played his best football with Desmond Ridder under center bodes well for his future. Utilized both outside and in the slot, London was able to win matchups even when defenses focused on him after TE Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending injury. London's overall numbers didn't look great, but he had enough big games to show that he has the makings of a star. While the Falcons figure to sport a run-first offense again, it's a safe bet London and Pitts dominate whatever volume the passing game provides.
- Round 7, Pick 63 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 14
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 8, Pick 78 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 99
Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 83 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 40
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 10, Pick 98 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 168
Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.
- Round 11, Pick 103 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 155
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 12, Pick 118 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 199
Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.
- Round 13, Pick 123 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 146 - 2022 Rank: 335
Selected 27th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft after a prolific college career, Bateman has seen his pro career defined by injuries. After undergoing abdominal surgery in the summer of his rookie season, Bateman missed the first five games. He then sustained a Lisfranc injury early last October, causing him to miss the final 11 weeks of the 2022 season. Bateman showed promise early last year in catching eight of 16 targets for 226 yards and two touchdowns in the first three weeks, supported by two long-distance scores on which his 4.39 speed was evident. Bateman is only 23 and remains a promising prospect, but he confronts greater competition for targets after the Ravens signed WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor and spent a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. There should at least be more receiving production to go around in Baltimore this year, as the change in offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Todd Monken implies a more pass-oriented offense. This modification gives Bateman a chance at a third-year breakout even with more competition for QB Lamar Jackson's attention.
- Round 14, Pick 138 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 359 - 2022 Rank: 240
Although he missed four games last year, Prater converted more than 84 percent of his field goals for the first time since 2018. Despite not being one of the more accurate kickers in the league, his leg strength is among the best in the NFL. Prater has converted at least five field goals of at least 50 yards on nine different occasions during his career. The biggest obstacle to Prater being a useful fantasy option is the state of the Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is a question mark to start the season, DeAndre Hopkins is no longer with the team and the offensive line projects to struggle again. If the team can't move the ball, Prater won't get the needed opportunities to be a weekly fantasy option.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 143 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 34
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 16, Pick 158 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 172
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 17, Pick 163 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 768
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 18, Pick 178 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 254
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 19, Pick 183 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 180 - 2022 Rank: 776
The Saints invested a third-round pick in Miller this April as they started to prepare for the transition from Alvin Kamara, which may be a couple of years away. Although Miller has the traits to be an early down RB, he's far from a sure thing. He looked slow on inside runs in college and often tried to break runs outside instead of using his 215-pound frame to attack defenders. The Saints also brought in veteran back Jamaal Williams, a reliable runner between the tackles who won't make anyone miss and can't outrun defensive backs. That makes Miller the more explosive option while Kamara serves a three-game suspension to start the season, but it isn't clear how much the Saints value the rookie's speed and acceleration relative to Williams' reliability as a pass blocker and inside runner.
DEF - Round 20, Pick 198 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 245 - 2022 Rank: 72
Jacksonville was a better fantasy defense than real-life defense in 2022 by virtue of scoring four defensive touchdowns, which was third-most in the league. Otherwise, the Jaguars had 35 sacks (seventh-fewest) and allowed 353.3 scrimmage yards per game (ninth-most). This unit's largely returning its key personnel from last season, so the most obvious avenue for improvement is the potential evolution of 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker, who had just 3.5 sacks as a rookie. However, Jacksonville will likely face a far tougher schedule in 2023. Not only did the Jaguars win the AFC South last year after drafting first overall the previous two seasons, but two of the three other teams in their division (the Texans and Colts) could be much improved on offense after taking QBs with top-five draft picks.
- Round 21, Pick 203 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 249 - 2022 Rank: 185
Joseph has attempted an impressive 86 field goals over the last two years while converting 88.3 percent of his chances for the Vikings. Playing on a team that's seen its defense decline over the past couple years, Minnesota is often forced into shootouts, which is always great for kickers. However, the downside can be that when a team trails too much, they have to go for touchdowns over field goals. So although Joseph had seven games with at least nine points, he also had six games with four or fewer points. Although it's unlikely he'll be an elite fantasy option, he's a reasonable option as a top-12 kicker.
- Round 22, Pick 218 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 187 - 2022 Rank: 228
Injuries could well end up being the story of Gallup's career when it's all said and done. A third-round pick in 2018, the Colorado State product topped 1,100 receiving yards in his second NFL season and appeared poised for a big run in an explosive offense, but Gallup hasn't sniffed that kind of production since as he and quarterback Dak Prescott have rarely been 100 percent healthy at the same time. An ACL tear that shut the wideout down in the second half of 2021 also seemed to hamper Gallup in 2022, and he didn't have the same ability to gain separation once he was back in action. The Cowboys hope a healthy offseason will allow him to return to form, but the team also hedged its bets by trading for Brandin Cooks to be the No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb. Gallup has contributed in the No. 3 role before, but with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible the Dallas passing game won't be able to support three receivers again to that extent.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
