In the League of Dynasties, Show Me Your TDs lived up to their name by securing the first overall pick in the draft. However, their performance on draft day left much to be desired, earning them a disappointing D- grade. With a projected record of 5-10-0 and a projected finish in 9th place, it seems like this team might need to show a little more than just their TDs to make a splash in the league.
Despite their lackluster draft, Show Me Your TDs did manage to make a few notable picks. Their best pick came in the form of Rachaad White, who was drafted at 108, beating out their ADP of 85. On the other hand, their worst pick was Jahan Dotson, who was taken at 85, falling short of their ADP of 100. Additionally, Show Me Your TDs took a risky strategy by drafting four players from the same team: Marvin Mims Jr., Justin Simmons, Matt Henningsen, and Damarri Mathis. Will this bold move pay off or leave them with a team that's too dependent on one squad? Only time will tell, but for now, Show Me Your TDs might want to consider showing a little more than just their TDs if they want to climb up the standings.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 271
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 82 - 2022 Rank: 242
Pierce was a pleasant surprise for the Texans as a rookie, even if the 2022 fourth-round pick's heroics didn't translate to many wins. After averaging 5.5 YPC as part of a platoon in college at Florida, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four TDs in 13 games for the Texans before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Pierce's 4.3 YPC in Houston was nothing to write home about, but that production came in the context of few threats in the passing game to keep defenses from keying on the run. The Texans are hoping to have changed that by drafting QB C.J. Stroud second overall in 2023. While they also bolstered their backfield depth by signing former Bills RB Devin Singletary, Pierce should continue to handle the majority of the workload as long as he's healthy. To that end, Pierce has been practicing at full speed at OTAs, suggesting he has long since put the ankle injury behind him. There's also room for further growth as a pass catcher for Pierce, as Houston still has an underwhelming receiving corps. Pierce caught 30 of 39 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.
- Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 722
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 551
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 622
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 6, Pick 61 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 27
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 7, Pick 84 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 310
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 8, Pick 85 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 437
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 9, Pick 108 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 439
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 10, Pick 109 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 235
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 11, Pick 132 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 1574
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 12, Pick 133 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 597
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 13, Pick 156 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 256
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 14, Pick 157 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: 1564
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 15, Pick 180 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1096 - 2022 Rank: 2010
- Round 16, Pick 181 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1476 - 2022 Rank: 178
- Round 17, Pick 204 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1164 - 2022 Rank: 74
Bentley has proven to be a trustworthy member of Bill Belichick's defense across the last three seasons, playing at least 600 snaps and over 90 tackles each year during that span. He's coming off of his best campaign, during which he racked up a team-high 125 tackles along with three sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery in 17 games. The team rewarded him with an extension, which should keep him in New England until after the 2024 campaign. It also means that the 2018 fifth-rounder is set to reprise his starting inside linebacker role for the Patriots. Bentley isn't an IDP superstar, as he's never managed to contribute much in the way of pass rush or coverage stats. On the other hand, he has a clear role in the middle of the defense and should pile up tackles once again.
- Round 18, Pick 205 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 859 - 2022 Rank: 46
Thompson has spent his entire eight-year career with Carolina, and he'll stick with the team in 2023 after reworking his deal in the offseason. He's always been an important part of the defensive unit, though his role has grown across the last four seasons. He's topped 100 tackles in each. In fact, 2022 was his most prolific campaign, as he led the Panthers with 135 stops in 17 games. Looking forward to 2023, Thompson's leadership and playmaking figure to be key as the Carolina defense transitions to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme. Along with a healthy Jeremy Chinn, Thompson once again is a top candidate to pace the Panthers in tackles.
- Round 19, Pick 228 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: 1559
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
- Round 20, Pick 229 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1300 - 2022 Rank: 343
After working in a reserve role during his rookie season of 2021, Deablo looked to be gaining the trust of his team in his sophomore year. Through eight games, he had played 441 defensive snaps and tallied an impressive 74 total tackles. However, his season ended in Week 9 after suffering a significant forearm injury. Deablo proved to be a strong defender against the run, but moving forward, he'll have to prove he can be effective in coverage while. In an ideal world, he'd also add some pass-rushing ability to his skills profile, as he has yet to record a sack in his career. While he's not yet a complete player, Deablo is a safe bet to work with the first team this season he should have the chance to post some gaudy tackle totals.
- Round 21, Pick 252 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 582 - 2022 Rank: 259
- Round 22, Pick 253 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 581 - 2022 Rank: 209
- Round 23, Pick 276 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1876 - 2022 Rank: 172
- Round 24, Pick 277 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1671 - 2022 Rank: 807
- Round 25, Pick 300 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1813 - 2022 Rank: 368
- Round 26, Pick 301 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1414 - 2022 Rank: 288
- Round 27, Pick 324 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 400 - 2022 Rank: 180
- Round 28, Pick 325 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1173 - 2022 Rank: 156
- Round 29, Pick 348 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1771 - 2022 Rank: 215
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
