In the League of Dynasties, the Sugar Hill Gang made their mark with a draft that left some scratching their heads. With the 7th pick in the draft order, they had the chance to make a statement, but their performance earned them a lackluster C grade. However, don't count them out just yet. Projected to finish 6th with a record of 8-7-0, this gang might have a few tricks up their sleeves.
One shining moment for the Sugar Hill Gang came with their best pick of the draft. Snagging Derrick Henry at 55, who had an ADP of 15, was a stroke of genius. This player is set to achieve great things and could be a game-changer for the team. On the flip side, their worst pick came at 78 with Anthony Richardson, who had an ADP of 119. It seems like they reached a bit too far for this one, but hey, sometimes you have to take a risk to reap the rewards.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 3
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 77
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 3, Pick 31 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 125
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 4, Pick 43 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 64
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 5, Pick 55 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 30
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 6, Pick 67 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 240
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 7, Pick 78 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 44 - 2022 Rank: 1555
The Colts couldn't pass up Richardson's tremendous athletic upside with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie out of Florida is raw, having completed only 53.8 percent of his passes last season, but Richardson has one of the most impressive physical profiles ever among QB prospects. Richarson has a cannon for an arm at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, plus he boasts 4.44 speed and set the QB record at the NFL Combine with a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Indianapolis also brought in Gardner Minshew in free agency, but it's likely just a matter of time until Richardson is handed the reins to the offense, and the rookie should be involved in short yardage and goal-line packages from the get-go. Even under the tutelage of head coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the meteoric rise of fellow dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator over the past two seasons, Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his NFL career, especially with few established targets to throw to besides Michael Pittman in a run-first offense centered around RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, Richardson's rushing ability (nine rushing TDs in 2022) makes him the most intriguing member of this rookie QB class from a fantasy perspective, as Justin Fields proved last year that you don't need to be a proficient passer to find significant fantasy success as a QB in the modern NFL.
- Round 8, Pick 91 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1143 - 2022 Rank: 53
Warner is entering his sixth season in the NFL and has been the picture of consistency. He's been available for either 16 or 17 games in every campaign, benefitting from playing a major role in an excellent defense but also getting some rest due to the excellent depth the team boasts. Warner has no fewer than 118 tackles in a given season and has at least 79 solo tackles in all five of his professional campaigns. If there's a downside to his game, it's a lack of production as a pass rusher, as he has only 6.5 career sacks. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with his work in coverage as he has 35 passes defended and four picks to his ledger. All told, he's an extremely reliable fantasy option due to both his skill and role in a prolific defense.
- Round 9, Pick 102 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 394 - 2022 Rank: 22
The Texans haven't done much right in the past couple of seasons, but selecting Pitre in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft certainly appears to be one. The rookie out of Baylor excelled with 147 tackles and five interceptions, wildly exceeding expectations while topping the team in both categories. One thing to keep an eye on is Pitre's deployment moving forward. He opened the 2022 campaign at strong safety and appeared to be heading to a reserve role after a number of miscues. Instead, the team shifted him to free safety, where he seemingly found a groove and some comfort on the field. The Texans did a lot of work on defense during the offseason, but Pitre is expected to remain a starter alongside veteran Jimmie Ward. All told he'll be looking to prove his initial production in the NFL was no fluke.
- Round 10, Pick 115 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1167 - 2022 Rank: 126
Campbell has been the model of consistency across his seven-year career in the NFL, topping 90 tackles in each of his last six. In part, his production has been dictated by model health, as he played 16 games in each season from 2017-2021. That run ended in 2022, when a knee injury cost Campbell four contests. However, his production was otherwise right on target, and he was on pace for 137 tackles if he'd played the same number of snaps as the year before. One unique area that Campbell has produced is in coverage, as he has two picks in three of the last four campaigns. Overall, he's been an excellent fit for coordinator Joe Barry's 3-4 scheme since the duo arrived in Green Bay in 2021, and Campbell has been free to focus on chasing after ball carriers.
- Round 11, Pick 126 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1784 - 2022 Rank: 295
- Round 12, Pick 139 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1579 - 2022 Rank: 88
- Round 13, Pick 150 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 104
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 14, Pick 163 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 424
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
- Round 15, Pick 174 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1186 - 2022 Rank: 2009
Campbell is an off-ball linebacker, which made him something of a curious chance at 18th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, there are certain athletic traits that he possesses that simply can't be taught - highlighted by a 4.65 40-yard dash, 128-inch broad jump, and a 6.74-second three-cone drill - so that isn't to say he won't be productive. His draft capital also all but ensures that he'll get regular reps among the Lions' linebacker corps immediately. After that, nothing is guaranteed. It will be interesting to see how Campbell adjusts to the NFL after he didn't post particularly compelling numbers in run defense or as a pass rusher while at Iowa. Specifically, he never recorded more than one sack in a season and never had more than 5.5 tackles for loss in a single season.
- Round 16, Pick 187 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 536 - 2022 Rank: 78
- Round 17, Pick 198 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 438
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 18, Pick 211 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1637 - 2022 Rank: 388
- Round 19, Pick 222 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1367 - 2022 Rank: 365
- Round 20, Pick 235 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1291 - 2022 Rank: 324
- Round 21, Pick 246 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 1554
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 22, Pick 259 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 352 - 2022 Rank: 1565
Mayer probably shouldn't have fallen to the Raiders at the 35th pick. As much as it was fair for NFL teams to find some concern in his athletic testing (4.7-second 40 at 249 pounds), it was never a good basis for letting Mayer fall out of the first round. If Mayer had run any faster, he would have been worth a top-15 pick - his barely disappointing combine was a basis to have Mayer fall out of the top-15, not out of the first round. Dalton Kincaid wasn't nearly as good of a collegiate tight end as Mayer, and Sam LaPorta probably was worse too, yet both players went ahead of Mayer. Mayer will likely be a steal for the Raiders as a result - think a better version of Zach Ertz - so the question of when Mayer breaks out as a fantasy asset might be pending how soon he can overtake the veteran Austin Hooper. Mayer is a good bet to skip the rookie-year struggles that most tight ends face (Mayer caught 42 passes as a true freshman at Notre Dame), but Hooper could be just enough of an obstacle to delay Mayer's full arrival as a fantasy option by a year.
- Round 23, Pick 270 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 135 - 2022 Rank: 1584
The NFL hasn't seen a running back of Achane's undersized frame succeed as more than a gadget player since Warrick Dunn in 1997. On the other hand, smaller wide receivers have begun finding real success in the modern league, and Achane is a more than capable pass-catcher. It shouldn't be overlooked, though, that he did hold up to significant volume at Texas A&M. Neither of Raheem Mostert nor Jeff Wilson is a slouch, so it's not as though the rookie-third-round pick would have a clear path to workhorse status even if he did boast prototypical size. Excitement over Achane stems less from projections of the volume and more from what his tools and 4.32-40 speed might accomplish in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Schemed plays ought to be regularly featured for Achane, and if he's able to earn sizeable weekly volume in Miami's backfield timeshare, his production could surprise.
- Round 24, Pick 283 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 498 - 2022 Rank: 166
- Round 25, Pick 294 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1651 - 2022 Rank: 394
- Round 26, Pick 307 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 320
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 27, Pick 318 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 199 - 2022 Rank: 52
Murray has been able to do some incredible things on the football field since coming into the league. but between personnel issues on offense and questionable coaching, it's fair to say we haven't seen the best out of him yet. Unfortunately, after suffering an ACL tear on December 12th, he's expected to miss at least the first four games of 2023. Much of last year's problems can be placed on external factors, but there's no certainty those will be any better this season. Murray had a career low 6.1 yards per attempt last year, and his 14.7 TD:INT ratio was the first time he wasn't over 2:1 since his 2019 rookie season. Of course, Murray continued to do well as a runner. He had at least 25 rushing yards in all but one game while going over 40 four times. Because of the knee injury, it's hard to recommend Murray as any more than a QB2 this season. And that is mostly in single quarterback leagues where fantasy managers take a second quarterback. To count on him in superflex leagues is difficult until we have a firm timetable for his return to complete health.
- Round 28, Pick 331 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 411 - 2022 Rank: 2022
- Round 29, Pick 342 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 154 - 2022 Rank: 1058
Williams will miss the first six games of the year due to suspension. As a rookie last year, he was eased into the lineup after suffering an ACL injury during his last year in college. He was targeted nine times, but he showed game-breaking speed -- his only catch was a 41-yard touchdown. Even when he was running routes on which he wasn't targeted, he usually looked like the fastest player on the field. And although it didn't show up on the stat sheet, he had a 66-yard touchdown called back by penalty. In fantasy drafts, he should be treated with the uncertainty of a supremely talented rookie with a ceiling of 11 games played. But the traits that led him to be a first-round pick are apparent.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
