In a draft that left fantasy experts scratching their heads, Allen in the Family managed to secure a solid C grade. With the 2nd pick in the draft order, they had the opportunity to make a splash, but instead opted for a cannonball into the pool of mediocrity. Projected to finish 7th with a lackluster 6-9-0 record, it seems like Allen in the Family is content with being just another forgettable team in the League of Dynasties.
One shining moment in their otherwise underwhelming draft was the selection of Javonte Williams at pick 107, a steal considering his ADP of 75. However, this moment of brilliance was overshadowed by the head-scratching decision to reach for Dalton Kincaid at pick 83, well above his ADP of 126. It's clear that Allen in the Family has a knack for making questionable choices.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 482
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 263
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 283
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 182
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 417
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 7, Pick 83 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 1558
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 300
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
- Round 9, Pick 107 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 900
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 1556
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 11, Pick 131 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 113 - 2022 Rank: 1570
Even though the Seahawks had a strong rookie season from Kenneth Walker last year, the team used their second-round draft pick for the second year in a row to add Charbonnet. While in college, Charbonnet forced many missed tackles while also having the power to break tackles as well. In addition, he caught 37 passes and proved to be a solid receiver. It's possible that he was drafted to add depth to a thin backfield, but Seattle may also want Charbonnet to be a big factor in their backfield. It's likely that Walker has the edge for lead work going into the season, though Charbonnet should see significant work each week. However, if Charbonnet outplays Walker, don't be surprised if coach Pete Carroll changes the running back roles.
- Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 133 - 2022 Rank: 1577
Bigsby was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Jaguars after posting 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns on 540 carries (5.4 YPC) in 35 games over the past three years at Auburn. The 6-foot, 210-pound Bigsby reportedly impressed as both a rusher and pass catcher at OTAs, further entrenching his standing as the top backup to Travis Etienne. While Etienne was a big play machine in his first NFL season last year, he struggled to churn out consistent gains at times, so Bigsby has a direct path to a prominent role in clock-killing situations, which could be plentiful if the Jaguars play up to their billing as favorites in the AFC South. Bigsby will need to hold off RBs D'Ernest Johnson, JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner, and Qadree Ollison in camp and preseason, but the rookie is the clear favorite to open his NFL career as the No. 2 option behind Etienne, if not the 1B in a platoon.
- Round 13, Pick 155 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 149 - 2022 Rank: 1073
Love is an unknown commodity for fantasy football this year. He's had 83 pass attempts during his short time in the league. Love will be taking over an offense that has questions at tight end and wide receiver. It's possible that Christian Watson will be a star, but it's also possible that he's just an outstanding deep threat. At 6-4, 219, Love has demonstrated decent mobility. That could give Love a stable rushing floor while the passing game rounds into form, though a larger sample size of rushing attempts would be nice. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether that was due to decline or the talent that surrounded him is uncertain. Also, Green Bay has been a run-heavy team for the past couple years, and their quarterback pass attempts have been below league average. Drafting Love as a boom-or-bust option makes sense, due to the uncertainty that surrounds him. He also could be a player who gets better as the season moves forward and he gets more experience.
- Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 134 - 2022 Rank: 445
Johnson was a converted wide receiver when entering the NFL three years ago. Although some fantasy players were excited about his potential, he needed time to fully make the transition. Last year, he finally had an opportunity, and he took advantage of it. He turned 65 targets into a 500-yard season with seven touchdowns. Although his seasonal numbers weren't special, Johnson was a high-floor player for much of the year. He posted at least 40 yards eight times over 16 games. He was a regular visitor to the end zone in Weeks 7-15, when he scored all of his touchdowns for the season in a seven-game span. He also proved to be a big-play producer, as eight of his 42 catches resulted in gains of at least 20 yards. With Derek Carr under center and likely dealing with protection issues, Johnson may directly benefit from the QB's need to get the ball out quickly. Johnson has the potential to finish as a top-12 TE.
- Round 15, Pick 179 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1644 - 2022 Rank: 2005
- Round 16, Pick 182 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 589 - 2022 Rank: 236
- Round 17, Pick 203 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1151 - 2022 Rank: 99
The Bills spent the 16th overall pick on Edmunds in the 2018 draft, and he delivered five seasons of more than 100 tackles. In need of an overhaul at linebacker, the Bears signed Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason. He'll be relied upon as a centerpiece of the rebuilt Bears defense, and the only potential thing that would hold him back from that is his ability to stay on the field. Though he hasn't suffered any major injuries, Edmunds has played in every game in a season only once in his career. Even so, he's a safe bet to pile up a boatload of tackles, his primary appeal for IDP formats. While he's never tallied more than two sacks in a campaign, Edmunds has enough athleticism to be strong in coverage and he's managed at least seven pass breakups in three separate campaigns.
- Round 18, Pick 206 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1223 - 2022 Rank: 51
Entering the 2022 season, Anzalone had shown the ability to stay on the field and produce at an elite clip on a per-game basis. However, those things had never coalesced. That changed in 2022, as he put up a career year highlighted by 125 tackles. Across two campaigns with the Lions, he has also shown significant involvement in pass defense by breaking up a combined 13 passes. Detroit acknowledged Anzalone's importance to their defensive scheme and rewarded him with a three-year, $18.75 million this offseason -- positioning him as the 13th-best paid inside linebacker in the league. With that new deal, he'll be expected to anchor a young and potential-filled linebacker corps, highlighted by Jack Campbell and Malcolm Rodriguez.
- Round 19, Pick 227 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1116 - 2022 Rank: 95
Baker doesn't have the gaudy tackle total of some of his fellow inside linebackers, but he's turned in reliable production across all five seasons of his career. He's notched no fewer than 79 stops - that mark came in his rookie season - and has three 100-tackle campaigns on his ledger. Unlike most other inside linebackers, he also has pass-rush upside, tallying at least four sacks in each of the last three years. Baker has also proven reliable in coverage, breaking up four passes in three different seasons. Baker could find more room to make plays in 2023 as the new defensive coordinator introduces his system and playmaker Bradley Chubb gets fully integrated into the defensive scheme.
- Round 20, Pick 230 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 528 - 2022 Rank: 808
- Round 21, Pick 251 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1680 - 2022 Rank: 307
- Round 22, Pick 254 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1314 - 2022 Rank: 79
Washington took Davis 19th overall in the 2021 Draft, capital driven primarily by his size and athleticism after he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash while posting a 132-inch broad jump and 42-inch vertical at the Kentucky Pro Day. However, he entered the NFL with relatively little experience, which limited him to a 59 percent snap share as a rookie. That mark jumped to 85 percent last season, and he should take another step forward in 2023 after the departure of Cole Holcomb. We got a preview of what could be in store for Davis, as he averaged 7.9 tackles after Holcomb's season-ending injury in Week 7. Davis is working his way back from a relatively minor knee procedure, which will be something to monitor during training camp. Assuming he begins the season at full strength as expected, he can be projected to post new career-high marks in both tackles and sacks.
- Round 23, Pick 275 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1808 - 2022 Rank: 325
- Round 24, Pick 278 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 247
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 25, Pick 299 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 410 - 2022 Rank: 163
- Round 26, Pick 302 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1385 - 2022 Rank: 192
- Round 27, Pick 323 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1205 - 2022 Rank: 173
Vander Esch had his most productive season as a rookie in 2018 and has had his progress slowed since by a series of upper body injuries. He was on pace to top the 100-tackle mark in 2022 until he was sidelined by a neck issue from Weeks 16-18. Despite his checkered health history, the Cowboys signed the 27-year-old to a one-year, $2 million prove-it deal this offseason. Given his experience, Vander Esch will likely begin 2023 with a starting role, but the team also boasts a collection of young, athletic talent at linebacker that now includes 2023 third-round pick DeMarvion Overshown. Add in his extended injury history and Vander Esch seems likely to see his snap count diminish this season.
- Round 28, Pick 326 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 545 - 2022 Rank: 911
- Round 29, Pick 347 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1823 - 2022 Rank: 303
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
