In Alison's Unreal League, the Dragon Queen has made her mark with an A+ draft grade and a projected 1st place finish. Despite picking 5th in the draft order, this team managed to secure a roster that is set to dominate the competition. With a projected record of 12-2-0 and a whopping 3721.9 projected points, the Dragon Queen is ready to breathe fire on her opponents. While the schedule difficulty is ranked as the 6th toughest out of 10 teams, this team is unfazed and ready to conquer.
The Dragon Queen's draft strategy paid off with a brilliant move in the 96th pick, snagging Amari Cooper who had an ADP of 41. This steal of a pick is sure to be a game-changer and will leave the other teams green with envy. However, not every pick was a gem, as the Dragon Queen made a questionable decision with the 5th pick, selecting Josh Allen who had an ADP of 24. Perhaps this was a strategic move that only the Dragon Queen can understand, but time will tell if it pays off. With three players on bye week 7, the Dragon Queen will need to rely on her fiery bench to keep the flames burning.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 13
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 60
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 4, Pick 36 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1112 - 2022 Rank: 37
Oluokun began his career more as a special teams ace rather than defensive stopper while in Atlanta. However, he has led the league in tackles in each of his two seasons with the Jaguars, posting 192 and 184 tackles, respectively. A bit more under the radar is his work in coverage, as he's broken up 11 combined passes across the last two campaigns. In addition to his statistical impact, Oluokun is a leader of the Jaguars' defense. He has served as a captain and also helped turn around the culture of the team after the departure of coach Urban Meyer. The linebacker is entering the final year of his deal with Jacksonville, but there's little reason to doubt that Oluokun will again be among the league's most productive inside linebackers.
DEF - Round 5, Pick 45 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 5
Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,
- Round 6, Pick 56 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 394 - 2022 Rank: 69
The Texans haven't done much right in the past couple of seasons, but selecting Pitre in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft certainly appears to be one. The rookie out of Baylor excelled with 147 tackles and five interceptions, wildly exceeding expectations while topping the team in both categories. One thing to keep an eye on is Pitre's deployment moving forward. He opened the 2022 campaign at strong safety and appeared to be heading to a reserve role after a number of miscues. Instead, the team shifted him to free safety, where he seemingly found a groove and some comfort on the field. The Texans did a lot of work on defense during the offseason, but Pitre is expected to remain a starter alongside veteran Jimmie Ward. All told he'll be looking to prove his initial production in the NFL was no fluke.
- Round 7, Pick 65 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1195 - 2022 Rank: 78
- Round 8, Pick 76 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 91
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 9, Pick 85 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1151 - 2022 Rank: 187
The Bills spent the 16th overall pick on Edmunds in the 2018 draft, and he delivered five seasons of more than 100 tackles. In need of an overhaul at linebacker, the Bears signed Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason. He'll be relied upon as a centerpiece of the rebuilt Bears defense, and the only potential thing that would hold him back from that is his ability to stay on the field. Though he hasn't suffered any major injuries, Edmunds has played in every game in a season only once in his career. Even so, he's a safe bet to pile up a boatload of tackles, his primary appeal for IDP formats. While he's never tallied more than two sacks in a campaign, Edmunds has enough athleticism to be strong in coverage and he's managed at least seven pass breakups in three separate campaigns.
- Round 10, Pick 96 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 92
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 11, Pick 105 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 589 - 2022 Rank: 324
- Round 12, Pick 116 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 702 - 2022 Rank: 134
- Round 13, Pick 125 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 299
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 14, Pick 136 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1844 - 2022 Rank: 259
- Round 15, Pick 145 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 291
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 16, Pick 156 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1098 - 2022 Rank: 116
As could be expected for a first-round pick, Walker was immediately slotted into a starting role among the Packers' linebacker corps in 2022. He led the team in tackles - an impressive feat - despite tallying five or fewer stops in six contests. That was a sign of his immaturity as a player, as were the two games from which he was ejected for making contact with an opposing coach. While there are areas to smooth out, Walker also proved quickly why he was worthy of a first-round selection. In addition to his aforementioned run-stopping ability, Walker was also able to quickly translate his athleticism into effective coverage by breaking up seven passes. Assuming he can become more consistent in his decision-making and level of play, Walker has every opportunity to vault up these rankings and is a prime breakout candidate.
- Round 17, Pick 165 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1808 - 2022 Rank: 520
- Round 18, Pick 176 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 192
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 19, Pick 185 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 119
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 20, Pick 196 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 31
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
DEF - Round 21, Pick 205 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 21
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
