In Keith's Victorious League, the Killaz took their shot at fantasy glory from the 6th spot in the draft order. With 21 rounds to fill their roster, they managed to secure a solid B grade, showing they have some potential. The projections have them finishing in 4th place with a record of 8-6-0, which is not too shabby. However, they'll need to bring their A-game to overcome the 7th toughest schedule in the league.
The Killaz made some interesting choices during the draft. Their best pick was snagging Cam Akers at 86, a steal considering his ADP of 57. On the other hand, their worst pick was reaching for Justin Fields at 26, when his ADP was 48. It seems like the Killaz have a knack for finding hidden gems and overvaluing certain players. Let's hope their team name doesn't foreshadow their performance on the field!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 94
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 10
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 69 - 2022 Rank: 43
Fields had the second-best rushing season ever for a quarterback, and the Bears really didn't turn him loose until just before mid season. Durability down the stretch became a concern, as he injured his shoulder. Fields lacked legitimate receiving weapons last season. As a result, it was very difficult for the passing game to have any consistency. There was a short period of time after the coaching staff opened up the offense in which he had both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, and they had moderate success during that time. But Fields threw for over 190 yards just twice, with 254 being his highest mark of the season. However, he did throw touchdown passes in 11 of his last 13 games. With the team adding DJ Moore at receiver, Fields now goes into 2023 with a legitimate arsenal of weapons. If he's even passable as a thrower, this offense can quickly make a massive jump forward. And as long as Fields has his rushing ability, he'll be a very high-floor fantasy option. Improved passing production could make him elite.
- Round 4, Pick 35 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 78 - 2022 Rank: 129
Higgins is well established as a high-quality WR2 in both real life and fantasy football. There's been some talk of him getting a WR1 opportunity as he enters the final year of his contract, but the Bengals don't seem interested in succumbing to trade rumors. Higgins showed up for the offseason program, and the team can keep him around next year with a franchise tag even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer/fall. He had at least 908 yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns the past two years. At 6-4, he excels on jump balls and contested catches, and although he is not as fast as teammate Ja'Marr Chase or as much of a YAC threat, Higgins nonetheless has proven quite useful on short and intermediate passes. In terms of fantasy upside beyond the 1,200-yard range or so, that'll probably only happen for Higgins in Cincinnati if Chase misses extended time -- a scenario that would leave the talented 2020 second-round pick as Joe Burrow's unquestioned top option.
- Round 5, Pick 46 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1282 - 2022 Rank: 72
Entering his ninth NFL season, Mosley has emerged as one of the most consistent tacklers in the league, topping 100 stops on six occasions. However, he's particularly blossomed under coach Robert Saleh in the last two years, posting his two highest tackle-total seasons and totaling 326 stops. Even at a relatively advanced age of 31, Mosley has recently shown the ability to improve his skills. He tallied seven passes defensed in 2022, his highest mark since the 2017 season. Given the wear and tear on his body, there will be some risk that Mosley will either lose a step or lose out on playing time due to injury in 2023 and beyond. However, it's hard to argue with his track record until he shows tangible signs of slowing down.
- Round 6, Pick 55 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 573
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 7, Pick 66 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1624 - 2022 Rank: 256
DEF - Round 8, Pick 75 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 18
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.
- Round 9, Pick 86 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 176
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 10, Pick 95 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 576 - 2022 Rank: 142
Wilson has overcome the odds as a sixth-round pick in 2019 to become a key part of the Dallas secondary. The 28-year-old rebounded from an injury-marred 2021 campaign, topping 100 tackles for the first time in his four-year career last season. He possesses a versatile skillset, as he regularly gets to the quarterback on blitzes and tallied a career-best five sacks in 2022. He rounds out his profile with good coverage skills, making him an outstanding fit for coordinator Dan Quinn's defense. Wilson was rewarded with a three-year contract this offseason worth up to $24 million. If he can stay healthy, Wilson again should post excellent all-around production again in 2023.
- Round 11, Pick 106 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1646 - 2022 Rank: 496
- Round 12, Pick 115 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 149 - 2022 Rank: 1150
Love is an unknown commodity for fantasy football this year. He's had 83 pass attempts during his short time in the league. Love will be taking over an offense that has questions at tight end and wide receiver. It's possible that Christian Watson will be a star, but it's also possible that he's just an outstanding deep threat. At 6-4, 219, Love has demonstrated decent mobility. That could give Love a stable rushing floor while the passing game rounds into form, though a larger sample size of rushing attempts would be nice. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether that was due to decline or the talent that surrounded him is uncertain. Also, Green Bay has been a run-heavy team for the past couple years, and their quarterback pass attempts have been below league average. Drafting Love as a boom-or-bust option makes sense, due to the uncertainty that surrounds him. He also could be a player who gets better as the season moves forward and he gets more experience.
- Round 13, Pick 126 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 492 - 2022 Rank: 170
- Round 14, Pick 135 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1207 - 2022 Rank: 120
Luvu entered the 2022 season known almost exclusively for his work on special teams. He had never totaled more than 43 tackles in any of his first four pro campaigns, but he enjoyed a breakout season with increased opportunity. Despite missing two games, he registered 111 stops to go with seven sacks - both marks were second on the Panthers - and four passes defended. Those numbers are impressive on their own, but he also displayed big-play ability by forcing a fumble and returning his only interception for a score. Looking forward, Luvu faces a transition to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme, but he is slated to start alongside Shaq Thompson at inside linebacker. Whether he can reproduce last year's success remains to be seen, but Luvu's stock nonetheless has never been higher.
- Round 15, Pick 146 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 155
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 16, Pick 155 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 530
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
- Round 17, Pick 166 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1108 - 2022 Rank: 451
Holcomb was just a fifth-round pick in the 2019 draft, but that didn't stop him from being immediately productive with the Commanders. Across four seasons with the team, he topped the century mark in tackles on two occasions. He was held back by lower-body injuries in the other two campaigns, which is a potential concern as heads to Pittsburgh in 2023 on a three-year deal. While his history suggests caution is warranted, Holcomb participated in OTAs with his new team and reported that he was playing at full strength. He projects to form a middle linebacker tandem with Elandon Roberts in the middle of the Steelers defense. Assuming he can hold up throughout the regular season, Holcomb is a strong bet for over 100 tackles and perhaps a couple of sacks and pass breakups.
- Round 18, Pick 175 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1858 - 2022 Rank: 257
- Round 19, Pick 186 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 54
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 20, Pick 195 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1795 - 2022 Rank: 339
- Round 21, Pick 206 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1851 - 2022 Rank: 296
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
