In Damien Pearce's Neat League, $DameDolla$ found themselves in the 8th spot of the draft order, which didn't bode well for their chances. With 21 rounds to fill their roster, they had plenty of opportunities to make some solid picks. Unfortunately, their draft grade of F suggests that they missed the mark. Despite snagging Alexander Mattison at pick 88, a steal compared to his ADP of 59, their worst pick of Aaron Rodgers at 73 (with an ADP of 101) left much to be desired. With a projected record of 2-12-0 and a projected finish of 9th, it seems $DameDolla$ will be singing the blues this season.
To add insult to injury, $DameDolla$ will have to face the toughest schedule out of all 10 teams in the league. Talk about bad luck! And if that wasn't enough, they'll also have to navigate through bye week 13 with two players sitting on the sidelines. It's safe to say that $DameDolla$ has their work cut out for them. With a draft grade of F and a projected finish of 9th, it looks like they'll be dancing to a different tune this season - a sad one.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 8 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 26
Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 1592
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 86
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 4, Pick 33 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 82
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 5, Pick 48 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1322 - 2022 Rank: 73
Edwards enjoyed a breakout 2022 season and emerged as a key member of the Eagles' excellent defense. His 1,005 snaps were 311 more than he had in the previous campaign, and he turned that into career-high marks in tackles (159) and passes defended (7). Edwards parlayed his production into a three-year, $19.5 million contract with the Bears this offseason. He'll play alongside Tremaine Edwards - another free-agent addition for Chicago - in a reimagined defense. While Edwards has just five sacks and two forced fumbles as a pro, he could become more of a playmaker on his new team as he's projected to shift from being inside to an outside linebacker. Regardless of exactly where he lines up, he'll be counted on for a similar workload in Chicago and thus should be a top IDP in the fall.
- Round 6, Pick 53 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1118 - 2022 Rank: 177
Jones took a significant step forward in his sophomore season as measured by both skill and role. He increased his snap count from 452 to 693, and he should take another step forward in that area after the offseason departure of Bobby Wagner. Jones also proved he knew what to do with that playing time, notching 114 tackles (66 solo), two passes defended, an interception, and a forced fumble. Heading into 2023, Jones will be asked to lead a young and unproven linebacker corps in Los Angeles. While that will prove to be significant pressure on a third-year player, it also gives him the chance to take another step forward and perhaps replicate Wagner's stat line from last season.
- Round 7, Pick 68 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1131 - 2022 Rank: 121
Not all careers progress linearly, but Wilson's certainly has. A third-round pick in 2020, Wilson served primarily on special teams as a rookie. He took a step forward in 2021, only to truly break out in 2022 by tallying 123 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Though he's not overly athletic, Wilson has shown enough intelligence to be an asset in coverage as he has racked up 11 passes defended and seven interceptions across 40 career games. He's a true three-down linebacker. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, Wilson will certainly be a key member of the Bengals defense yet again. The only question is his health, as he's missed eight games in his three-year career.
- Round 8, Pick 73 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 67
The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.
- Round 9, Pick 88 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 456
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 10, Pick 93 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1787 - 2022 Rank: 295
- Round 11, Pick 108 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 551 - 2022 Rank: 317
- Round 12, Pick 113 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1299 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 128 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 1583
The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.
- Round 14, Pick 133 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 287
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 15, Pick 148 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1863 - 2022 Rank: 297
- Round 16, Pick 153 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 510 - 2022 Rank: 644
- Round 17, Pick 168 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 173 - 2022 Rank: 206
Thielen scored six touchdowns last year and 30 total in his final three seasons in Minnesota, but every other stat points to decline, including his 2022 averages of 4.1 catches for 42.1 yards per game. Undeterred, the Panthers signed Thielen to a three-year, $25 million contract that includes $14 million guaranteed at signing, ensuring No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will have at least one experienced starting wideout to target. The team also brought in WR DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst, later adding WR Jonathan Mingo in the second round of the draft. It was a full revamp of the skill positions, while the offensive line has more stability after making huge strides throughout last season. A full-on renaissance is unlikely for Thielen in his age-33 season, but he does at least seem locked in for a starting job and at least a handful of targets per week. Whether that translates to low-end fantasy value or not partially depends on how Young develops under new Panthers head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 18, Pick 173 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 302
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
DEF - Round 19, Pick 188 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 36
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 20, Pick 193 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 552 - 2022 Rank: 264
- Round 21, Pick 208 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 66 - 2022 Rank: 197
London had a great start and a great finish to his rookie season, but the nine games that fell between those periods of production were uninspiring. In the first three games of the season, the eighth overall pick averaged 5.3 receptions for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns. Over the last five games of the year, he fell below 70 yards just once. In between those two stretches, he had 40 or fewer yards in nine consecutive games. Some of his downswing may have been due to Marcus Mariota being the QB, especially after defenses had an idea how the Falcons wanted to 'run' their offense. However, the fact that London played his best football with Desmond Ridder under center bodes well for his future. Utilized both outside and in the slot, London was able to win matchups even when defenses focused on him after TE Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending injury. London's overall numbers didn't look great, but he had enough big games to show that he has the makings of a star. While the Falcons figure to sport a run-first offense again, it's a safe bet London and Pitts dominate whatever volume the passing game provides.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
