In Garrett's Groovy League, Daddy Kirk had the honor of picking second in the draft. With 21 rounds to fill, they had plenty of opportunities to make some bold moves. Unfortunately, their draft grade of D suggests that those moves may not have been as groovy as they had hoped. Projected to finish 8th with a record of 4-10-0, Daddy Kirk is set to face a tough schedule, ranked 5th toughest out of 10 teams. On top of that, they'll have to navigate through three players on bye week 13. Ouch! But it's not all doom and gloom for Daddy Kirk, as they did manage to make one solid pick. At number 42, they snagged Chris Olave, who had an ADP of 28. That's a pretty groovy steal!
While Daddy Kirk may have had a few missteps in their draft, they did manage to avoid a complete disaster. Their worst pick came at number 79, where they selected Tua Tagovailoa, who had an ADP of 97. Maybe they saw something in Tua Tagovailoa that others didn't, or maybe they just got a little too caught up in the groovy vibes of the draft. Either way, it's safe to say that Daddy Kirk's draft was a bit of a rollercoaster. With a projected finish of 8th, they'll have their work cut out for them. But hey, at least they've got a cool team name to fall back on!
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 17
After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 47
A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.
- Round 3, Pick 22 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 66
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 4, Pick 39 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 1562
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 5, Pick 42 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 162
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 6, Pick 59 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 85
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 7, Pick 62 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 493 - 2022 Rank: 263
- Round 8, Pick 79 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 65
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 9, Pick 82 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1248 - 2022 Rank: 90
Kendricks has established himself as one of the premier inside linebackers across his prolific eight-year career. He can safely be penciled in for 100 tackles, as he even managed 107 stops across 11 games in an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. In addition to his run-stuffing abilities, Kendricks is also excellent in coverage, as he's managed at least six passes defended in all but two seasons. His work as a pass rusher is a bit more inconsistent, though he did rack up five sacks as recently as 2021. The one thing that has changed for the first time in his career is Kendricks' team, as he left Minnesota to join the Chargers in the offseason. That should mean little in terms of a change in role, as the team committed $13.3 million to him across the next two seasons. Despite the shift in scenery, expect more of the same from Kendricks in 2023.
- Round 10, Pick 99 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 859 - 2022 Rank: 128
Thompson has spent his entire eight-year career with Carolina, and he'll stick with the team in 2023 after reworking his deal in the offseason. He's always been an important part of the defensive unit, though his role has grown across the last four seasons. He's topped 100 tackles in each. In fact, 2022 was his most prolific campaign, as he led the Panthers with 135 stops in 17 games. Looking forward to 2023, Thompson's leadership and playmaking figure to be key as the Carolina defense transitions to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme. Along with a healthy Jeremy Chinn, Thompson once again is a top candidate to pace the Panthers in tackles.
- Round 11, Pick 102 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 466
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 12, Pick 119 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1262 - 2022 Rank: 89
Hicks joined the Vikings in 2022, his third team in his eight-year NFL career. He didn't miss a beat with the switch, tallying 128 tackles - the second-highest mark of his career - to top the century mark for the fourth consecutive campaign. Minnesota also asked Hicks to take on additional responsibilities in coverage, and he rose to the occasion by racking up 10 passes defensed. Entering his age-31 season, Hicks has been a picture of health by playing in every game across the last four campaigns. Assuming that continues, he'll remain a prominent member of the defense and is also a good bet to add to his impressive career resume.
- Round 13, Pick 122 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 496 - 2022 Rank: 156
- Round 14, Pick 139 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 531 - 2022 Rank: 1192
- Round 15, Pick 142 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1673 - 2022 Rank: 399
DEF - Round 16, Pick 159 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 4
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 17, Pick 162 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 407
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 18, Pick 179 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 118
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 19, Pick 182 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 1588
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 20, Pick 199 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 710 - 2022 Rank: 581
- Round 21, Pick 202 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 50
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
