In a draft that left everyone reaching for their sweaters, Cold Brew managed to stand out with their icy performance. Despite picking 7th in the draft order, they failed to warm up the room with their selections, earning them a disappointing draft grade of F. With a projected record of 2-12-0 and a projected finish in 9th place, it seems Cold Brew is destined for a season as cold as their name suggests. Their projected points of 3181.61 may not be enough to thaw their icy fate, especially considering they have the second toughest schedule in the league.
While Cold Brew did manage to find a few bright spots in their draft, such as nabbing Amon-Ra St. Brown at 27th overall, beating his ADP of 20, they also stumbled upon some frosty missteps. The worst pick of the draft goes to their selection of Matthew Stafford at 94th overall, a player who had an ADP of 129. It seems Cold Brew was trying to create a team synergy by drafting three players from the same team, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Matthew Stafford, but whether this strategy will lead to success or a chilly reception remains to be seen. Additionally, their decision to draft three CBs, when the league average is 0.4, raises some eyebrows and leaves us wondering if they're planning to field an entire secondary on their roster. It seems Cold Brew is embracing their name a little too much, as they're brewing up trouble for themselves in Derek's Dazzling League.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 13 - 2022 Rank: 9
There are very few players in NFL history who compare to Ekeler, and aside from maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, none are in the league today. Among active players Ekeler is one of a kind, and the Chargers offense would be in a lot of trouble without him. Ekeler has reached volume/efficiency thresholds as a pass catcher otherwise only matched historically by Marshall Faulk, so when a pass catcher that productive adds 25 rushing touchdowns over two years it's unsurprising that Ekeler is now a consensus first-round fantasy pick. Ekeler is too small to hold up with a big rushing workload (that's why he's not Faulk), but his per-carry returns are excellent and his effectiveness as a runner should never be questioned. As much as Ekeler might be vulnerable to rushing touchdown regression, it won't occur on the basis of ability - if the touchdown carries are there for the taking, Ekeler is still a great bet to claim them. After a brief contract standoff earlier in the offseason, Ekeler raised the white flag and clarified that he will report for training camp.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 47 - 2022 Rank: 154
The Rams offense was a mess last year, largely due to offensive line issues as well as the lack of a rushing attack. Also, free agent addition Allen Robinson didn't work out for the team, and all they really had to lean on at that point was Kupp. From a production standpoint, he mostly picked up where he left off in 2021. He had at least nine targets in all but one game. He also had at least 122 yards in four of eight games. Kupp also had at least 79 yards in seven of the eight games he played. However, he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the last eight games of the season. Other than missing eight games in 2018 as well, he had a very healthy career to date. Even though Kupp's entering his age-30 season, there appeared to be no sign of decline last year. He still should be a very high floor and high ceiling fantasy option. and Kupp should be an obvious first-round draft pick in most leagues. But keep your eye on an in-practice hamstring injury that Kupp suffered in early August.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 79
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 4, Pick 34 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 59
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 5, Pick 47 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 136
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 6, Pick 54 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1294 - 2022 Rank: 554
- Round 7, Pick 67 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1784 - 2022 Rank: 473
- Round 8, Pick 74 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1101 - 2022 Rank: 100
White is entering the final season of his rookie contract with his future is in limbo. He requested a trade from the Buccaneers this offseason, though the team made it clear they have no interest in dealing him. They've stuck to that position, and White remains on the roster, though he made his displeasure known by sitting out mandatory minicamp. He'll gain no tangible benefit by sitting out game action, however, so we can expect him to be on the field come August and September. Once the pads come on, there are far fewer questions, as he has posted 252 tackles and nine sacks across the last two seasons. The addition of first-round pick Calijah Kancey gives Todd Bowles another disruptive defender to scheme with, but White will pair with Lavonte David as the heart of the defense again in 2023.
- Round 9, Pick 87 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 620 - 2022 Rank: 461
- Round 10, Pick 94 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 157 - 2022 Rank: 413
The Rams had a terrible offensive line last year, and their running game was stuck in neutral. As a result, Stafford paid the price with 29 sacks in 11 games. Last year, the team added Allen Robinson in free agency, but either the team didn't properly use him, or Robinson was on the downside of his career. So with very little going his way, Stafford was consistently getting hit, which kept him unable to put up consistent fantasy points. Stafford's 10:8 TD:INT ratio was his worst since 2012. And due to the constant pressure, his 6.9 yards per attempt was significantly lower than any of his last three seasons. Although Stafford had at least 240 passing yards in each of his first six games, he failed to crack 190 in any of his last three. He then suffered a neck injury and was shut down for the season. Going into 2023, Stafford may see an improvement from the offensive line, as a number of starters will return from injuries, and the Rams added guard Steve Avila in the second round of the draft. Coach Sean McVay will have had time to consider different ways for Stafford to attack defenses while hopefully getting the ball out of his hands quicker to keep him healthy. Still, the Rams seem a bit of a rebuilding mess. Stafford shouldn't be considered more than a backup in typical fantasy leagues.
- Round 11, Pick 107 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1236 - 2022 Rank: 293
Werner looked to be in for a breakout 2022 season, as he posted 71 tackles and three passes defended through the first eight games. However, the 2021 second-round pick went on to suffer a significant ankle injury in Week 9, limiting him to suiting up in just three of New Orleans' final eight games. Despite that setback and playing fewer snaps than his rookie season, Werner still put up career-best production in 2022. In addition to solid tackle totals and work in coverage, he also forced two fumbles. After fellow off-ball linebacker Kaden Elliss left in free agency this offseason, Werner should headline the Saints' relatively thin linebacking corps alongside four-time All-Pro middle linebacker Demario Davis. If he can stay healthy, 2023 could be his true breakout campaign.
- Round 12, Pick 114 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1891 - 2022 Rank: 768
- Round 13, Pick 127 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 580 - 2022 Rank: 284
- Round 14, Pick 134 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 346
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 15, Pick 147 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 123
Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.
- Round 16, Pick 154 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1885 - 2022 Rank: 178
DEF - Round 17, Pick 167 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 216 - 2022 Rank: 46
Coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme dragged Miami to a playoff appearance last season, but the need for improvements on defense were obvious. Enter DC extraordinaire Vic Fangio, who promises not only to unlock Bradley Chubb (traded to the Dolphins last November), but provide a salve across the board. Chubb isn't the only name of note up front, with the presence of 2021 first-rounder Jaelen Phillip also being notable. Free-agency additions LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott arrive to reinforce returning starters LB Jerome Baker and S Jevon Holland, giving Miami a well-rounded core before even accounting for the team's standout CB duo. Trading for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Xavien Howard puts legitimate top-5 upside within range for this defensive unit.
- Round 18, Pick 174 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1239 - 2022 Rank: 1039
- Round 19, Pick 187 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1212 - 2022 Rank: 233
- Round 20, Pick 194 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1376 - 2022 Rank: 685
- Round 21, Pick 207 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 302 - 2022 Rank: 308
Over the course of the last four years spent in New England, the 38-year-old kicker, Folk, experienced what could arguably be considered the prime of his lengthy career. During this period, he was able to convert an impressive 89.3 percent of his field-goal attempts and 91.3 percent of PATs. Additionally, Folk exceeded expectations by hitting nine kicks from 50-plus yards in just two seasons, despite having never made more than three kicks from that range in a single year previously. Although his offensive teammates were not always up to par, Folk still managed to rank top-5 in total field-goals made in both years. Despite his achievements, the team did not seem too impressed and opted to use a fourth-round pick in 2023 on Maryland kicker, Chad Ryland, who possesses a stronger leg and may eventually take over Folk's role.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
