In the deep waters of the Iunctis Keeper League, the Nouméa Sharks made a splash with their draft, but unfortunately, it was more of a belly flop than a graceful dive. With the 8th pick in the draft order, they had a chance to reel in some top talent, but their C- draft grade suggests they may have been using a rusty fishing rod. While they did manage to snag Damien Harris at 93, beating his ADP of 116, their enthusiasm quickly sank when they reached for Dalvin Cook at 33, well above his ADP of 74. It seems the Sharks got caught in a feeding frenzy and ended up with a few less-than-ideal catches.
As the Sharks navigate the treacherous waters of the Iunctis Keeper League, they face an uphill battle. Projected to finish 7th with a record of 7-8-0, they'll need to summon their inner shark instincts to stay afloat. With a projected point total of 1858.61, they'll need to sharpen their teeth and sink them into the competition. However, their schedule won't make it easy, as it's ranked as the 6th toughest out of the 10 teams. To make matters worse, they'll have to navigate the choppy waters of bye week 10 with three players out of commission. It looks like the Nouméa Sharks will need more than just a dorsal fin to make a splash this season.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 8 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 56
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 74
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 47 - 2022 Rank: 47
The Rams offense was a mess last year, largely due to offensive line issues as well as the lack of a rushing attack. Also, free agent addition Allen Robinson didn't work out for the team, and all they really had to lean on at that point was Kupp. From a production standpoint, he mostly picked up where he left off in 2021. He had at least nine targets in all but one game. He also had at least 122 yards in four of eight games. Kupp also had at least 79 yards in seven of the eight games he played. However, he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the last eight games of the season. Other than missing eight games in 2018 as well, he had a very healthy career to date. Even though Kupp's entering his age-30 season, there appeared to be no sign of decline last year. He still should be a very high floor and high ceiling fantasy option. and Kupp should be an obvious first-round draft pick in most leagues. But keep your eye on an in-practice hamstring injury that Kupp suffered in early August.
- Round 4, Pick 33 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 142
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 5, Pick 48 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 17
Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.
- Round 6, Pick 53 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 75
A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.
- Round 7, Pick 68 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 90
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 8, Pick 73 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 84
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 9, Pick 88 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 62
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 10, Pick 93 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 131
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 11, Pick 108 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 110 - 2022 Rank: 110
Collins finished third on the Texans with 66 targets last season, and he's remarkably the only player among the team's top six in that category returning in 2023 for a remade Houston passing attack that also will be helmed by a new QB -- rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud. Brandin Cooks (93 targets in 2022) and Chris Moore (74) both left for greener pastures, but the Texans brought in a bevy of WRs to replace those outgoing options. Houston signed Robert Woods and Noah Bown in free agency, drafted Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round), and should get 2022 second-round pick John Metchie back after he missed his entire rookie season. The Texans also have a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, so Collins won't have much of an incumbent advantage, but the 2021 third-round pick should be ticketed for a prominent role if he can stay healthy after missing 10 games due to injuries over his first two seasons. In the 24 games he played, Collins caught 70 of 126 targets for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but his efficiency could improve significantly if Stroud proves to be an upgrade over Davis Mills, who remains on the roster after starting at QB in each of Collins' first two seasons. Collins' 6-foot-4 frame could theoretically make him an enticing target in the red zone, though such success hasn't materialized in what's been a lackluster Houston offense in recent years.
- Round 12, Pick 113 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 184
Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.
DEF - Round 13, Pick 128 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 139
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 14, Pick 133 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 156
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
- Round 15, Pick 148 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 232 - 2022 Rank: 232
Foreman is one of the true success stories of a player making it back from an Achilles injury. Once Christian McCaffrey was traded away by the Panthers last year, Foreman stepped into a large role. His 203 carries was the first big workload he had in his career. And he responded very well by posting a career-high 4.5 yards per carry. Despite having just a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was 76th percentile in yards after contact. But as good as some of his numbers looked, he was inconsistent. He had five games with at least 113 rushing yards. Conversely, he was held to fewer than 25 yards four times. And his performances weren't based on the level of competition. He had some excellent games against strong defenses while having some poor performances against weaker defenses. Now with Chicago, Foreman should bring the thunder to Khalil Herbert's lighting to form a one-two punch in the backfield. Foreman should profile as the primary goal-line back, though Justin Fields is sure to be a factor at the goal. Even though the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round, Foreman is likely a better RB at this stage, and Johnson may not be a major threat to Foreman's role. In his current situation, Foreman has RB2 or flex value in drafts.
- Round 16, Pick 153 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 7 - 2022 Rank: 7
It doesn't diminish his legacy with Aaron Rodgers any in hindsight, but it's quite a testament to Adams' abilities that he moved from Green Bay to the Raiders and had almost no drop off in his production. Although it took an extra game in 2022 than 2021, Adams eclipsed 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the second year in a row last year. Adams even improved on the touchdown production from Green Bay to Las Vegas, scoring 14 times on his 100 catches last year compared to 11 times on 123 catches his final year with the Packers. Adams expressed dissatisfaction with the Raiders organization and its direction following the 2022 season, but that realization probably hit him at some point before then, yet it didn't stop Adams from producing at an elite level. What could perhaps harm Adams' production is the Raiders quarterback situation. Free agent pickup Jimmy Garoppolo should be good enough for Adams to thrive, but Garoppolo's surgically-repaired foot is such a concern that the Raiders wrote an out clause in Garoppolo's contract that allows them to cut him with no cap penalty. Brian Hoyer would be the likely backup if Garoppolo were to miss time, and it's difficult to feel totally secure with Adams if that's the type of quarterbacking he might have to deal with.
- Round 17, Pick 168 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 182 - 2022 Rank: 182
Offseason knee surgery kept Jefferson out until Week 8 last season. When he returned, he had every opportunity to capitalize in the Rams' injury-riddled offense. By the time the team was down to a third-string quarterback and a bunch of depth pieces at wide receiver, Jefferson was seeing close to five targets per game. But he didn't do much with his opportunity, finishing with 24 receptions, 369 yards and three scores. He never caught more than three passes in a game. And that was with playing 64 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he frequently would get a free release from the line. The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers this offseason, leaving Jefferson as the No. 2 wideout to Cooper Kupp. That should give him plenty of opportunities this season to be a weekly threat in the passing game.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
