In the Iunctis Keeper League, Herbert Leonard had the privilege of picking 9th in a 10-team draft. With 17 rounds to fill their roster, they managed to secure a C+ draft grade. While projected to finish 5th with a record of 9-6-0, it seems Herbert Leonard will have their work cut out for them with the 4th toughest schedule in the league. To make matters worse, they will have to navigate through bye week 5 with 4 players on the sidelines. However, it wasn't all doom and gloom for Herbert Leonard as they made the best of their situation by snagging Tua Tagovailoa at pick 92, beating his ADP of 96. Unfortunately, not all picks were as successful, with Zay Flowers being selected at pick 52, way above his ADP of 121. Maybe Herbert Leonard knows something we don't, or maybe they just got a little too caught up in the excitement of the draft.
One thing that stands out about Herbert Leonard's draft strategy is their affinity for a particular team. They managed to draft not one, not two, but three players from the same team. It seems they are putting all their eggs in one basket, hoping that Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa will carry them to victory. Only time will tell if this bold move will pay off or if they will be left with a team that's too reliant on one squad. With a projected finish of 5th, Herbert Leonard will need all the help they can get. Maybe they should consider changing their team name to 'The One-Trick Ponies' because it looks like they're banking on a single team to carry them to glory.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 33
Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.
- Round 2, Pick 12 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 49
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 55
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 4, Pick 32 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 29
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 18
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 6, Pick 52 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 48
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 7, Pick 69 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 77 - 2022 Rank: 77
Mostert re-signs in Miami to return to an ideal scheme fit with coach Mike McDaniel, and also one of the league's more crowded backfields. He and fellow 49ers holdover Jeff Wilson figure to open the season as effectively a 1a/1b tandem, regardless of whoever is officially the starter, just as was the case last season whenever both veterans were simultaneously available. Wilson saw more work as a pass-catcher in 2022 while Mostert's skillset allows him to manufacture big plays more regularly. However, Mostert's role could overlap more with rookie third-round pick Devon Achane. Both are speedsters of slighter frames, although Mostert is far closer to a back or prototypical size than Achane. It seems almost a likely event that the Dolphins ultimately roll out a three-headed committee, one which would almost certainly prove productive, but make week-to-week performances difficult to predict.
- Round 8, Pick 72 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 124
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
- Round 9, Pick 89 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 15
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 10, Pick 92 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 85
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 11, Pick 109 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 86 - 2022 Rank: 86
Gainwell gave a glimpse of what he might be able to accomplish in a bigger role in last season's wild-card win over the Giants, erupting for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that could well end up being the high point of his Eagles tenure. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Gainwell's a valuable depth option in Nick Siranni's scheme, but his biggest asset is receiving skills that often go under-utilized in an offense that would rather have Jalen Hurts keep the ball himself than dump it off to a running back. Miles Sanders, another back who didn't get the workload his talent may have warranted, left for Carolina in the offseason, but Gainwell's shot at rising up the depth chart got thwarted when the team signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D'Andre Swift. The two imports have long injury histories though, so Gainwell might yet get a look as the Eagles' starter if both Swift and Penny happen to be on the shelf at the same time.
- Round 12, Pick 112 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 141
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 13, Pick 129 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 289 - 2022 Rank: 289
Metchie sat out his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia, but the 2022 second-round pick is expected to return healthy this season. He had 1,142 yards and eight TDs at Alabama in 2021 prior to being drafted 44th overall by the Texans. Metchie will have a chance to carve out a prominent role in Houston's new-look passing attack once he recovers from the hamstring strain he suffered during offseason workouts. Metchie, along with 2023 draft picks Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round) have yet to suit up in the NFL, while the more experienced Robert Woods, Nico Collins and Noah Brown all fell short of 600 receiving yards last season. Metchie's capable of emerging out of that underwhelming group as the top wide receiver for rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud, or at least as a starter. While Metchie's floor is low after a year away from football, there's certainly upside here given the lack of established options ahead of him and the high likelihood that Houston will be forced to pass while playing from behind after going 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons.
- Round 14, Pick 132 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 40
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 15, Pick 149 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 61 - 2022 Rank: 61
By now it's safe to call Herbert one of the league's elite quarterbacks, even after a somewhat disappointing 2022 season saw his touchdown rate and per-pass yardage decline from his 2021 and 2020 seasons. It didn't make much sense for Herbert to only throw for 25 touchdowns in 2022 after throwing for 69 touchdowns over the two prior seasons, so the Chargers decided to make a switch at offensive coordinator, deleting Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk offense for a Kellen Moore scheme that will hopefully do more to unleash Herbert's standout downfield passing ability. Between Moore's addition and the selection of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, it's shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Although it seems Herbert won't ever be inclined to run much, he still has the athleticism to do so. He could provide fantasy production similar to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen if he can just get his per-pass yardage up over 8.0 yards per attempt. If Herbert's pass attempt volume stabilizes while his per-pass returns spike upward, something like a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season could be on the table. He was already close in 2021, when he threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns.
DEF - Round 16, Pick 152 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 198
In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.
- Round 17, Pick 169 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 2396
Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
