The Masseurs Alpins brought their magic touch to the draft, earning an impressive A- grade. With a projected record of 10-5-0, they're set to provide some much-needed relaxation to their opponents. Despite being the 4th pick in the draft order, they managed to snag Saquon Barkley at 4, a steal considering his ADP of 12. It seems like their opponents will be in for a real massage session on game day.
While the Masseurs Alpins had a strong draft overall, they did have one slight misstep. They selected Dalton Kincaid at 64, which raised a few eyebrows considering his ADP of 124. It's safe to say that this pick didn't quite hit the spot. However, with their projected finish of 4th, it seems like the Masseurs Alpins are still on track to provide some top-notch relaxation services this season. Opponents beware, because this team is ready to knead their way to victory.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 46
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 2, Pick 17 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 67
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 3, Pick 24 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 121
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 65
Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.
- Round 5, Pick 44 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 36
A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.
- Round 6, Pick 57 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 4
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 7, Pick 64 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 107
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 8, Pick 77 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 93
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 9, Pick 84 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 180 - 2022 Rank: 180
The Saints invested a third-round pick in Miller this April as they started to prepare for the transition from Alvin Kamara, which may be a couple of years away. Although Miller has the traits to be an early down RB, he's far from a sure thing. He looked slow on inside runs in college and often tried to break runs outside instead of using his 215-pound frame to attack defenders. The Saints also brought in veteran back Jamaal Williams, a reliable runner between the tackles who won't make anyone miss and can't outrun defensive backs. That makes Miller the more explosive option while Kamara serves a three-game suspension to start the season, but it isn't clear how much the Saints value the rookie's speed and acceleration relative to Williams' reliability as a pass blocker and inside runner.
- Round 10, Pick 97 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 38
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 11, Pick 104 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 63
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 12, Pick 117 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 120 - 2022 Rank: 120
Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. In the days after the draft, much of the conversation by the organization about Johnson centered around his leadership and special-teams ability. It was also mentioned that he could be good in pass protection. When a team doesn't first talk about the player's ability at the position he was drafted, that's a massive red flag. Although he's a bigger back at 6', 219 pounds, he ran below average in his 40-yard-dash time and explosiveness drills. Although he forced many missed tackles in college, he took a significant number of his runs to the outside. That's unlikely to be a recipe for success at the NFL level, especially for a slower runner. Johnson may eventually become a staple in the Chicago backfield, but it may be difficult for him to move past D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert this year.
- Round 13, Pick 124 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 154 - 2022 Rank: 154
Williams will miss the first six games of the year due to suspension. As a rookie last year, he was eased into the lineup after suffering an ACL injury during his last year in college. He was targeted nine times, but he showed game-breaking speed -- his only catch was a 41-yard touchdown. Even when he was running routes on which he wasn't targeted, he usually looked like the fastest player on the field. And although it didn't show up on the stat sheet, he had a 66-yard touchdown called back by penalty. In fantasy drafts, he should be treated with the uncertainty of a supremely talented rookie with a ceiling of 11 games played. But the traits that led him to be a first-round pick are apparent.
- Round 14, Pick 137 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 238
The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 144 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 210
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 16, Pick 157 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 9
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 17, Pick 164 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 95
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
