In the Iunctis Keeper League draft, the Billou Ass Chargers took the field with high hopes, but unfortunately, their performance left much to be desired. Despite their 6th place draft order, they managed to secure a disappointing draft grade of D. With a projected record of 2-13-0 and a projected finish of 8th, it seems the Chargers may be facing an uphill battle this season. Their projected points of 1759.54 don't exactly inspire confidence either, especially considering they have the 8th toughest schedule out of the 10 teams in the league. To make matters worse, they have not one, but two players on bye week 7, adding insult to injury.
While the Chargers did have a glimmer of hope with their best pick, DK Metcalf, who was drafted at 6 with an ADP of 36, it was quickly overshadowed by their worst pick, Zach Charbonnet, who was drafted at 35 with an ADP of 119. It seems the Chargers may have underestimated the value of certain players, leading to this questionable decision. With their lackluster draft performance, it's clear that the Chargers have a long way to go if they want to live up to their name. Perhaps they should consider recharging their strategy before it's too late.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 37
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 76
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 26
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 4, Pick 35 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 113 - 2022 Rank: 113
Even though the Seahawks had a strong rookie season from Kenneth Walker last year, the team used their second-round draft pick for the second year in a row to add Charbonnet. While in college, Charbonnet forced many missed tackles while also having the power to break tackles as well. In addition, he caught 37 passes and proved to be a solid receiver. It's possible that he was drafted to add depth to a thin backfield, but Seattle may also want Charbonnet to be a big factor in their backfield. It's likely that Walker has the edge for lead work going into the season, though Charbonnet should see significant work each week. However, if Charbonnet outplays Walker, don't be surprised if coach Pete Carroll changes the running back roles.
- Round 5, Pick 46 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 119 - 2022 Rank: 119
Taken in the third round out of Memphis in 2020, Gibson found himself falling out of favor with former offensive coordinator Scott Turner last year and was reduced to primarily a passing-down role despite having rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2021. While he's an outstanding athlete with great speed and good receiving skills, Gibson's instincts as a runner have never really developed, and he lost early-down touches to rookie Brian Robinson. Robinson was unimpressive though, and Turner was replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy in the offseason. While Gibson's profile more closely resembles the kind of backs who thrived in the scheme Bieniemy brings with him, 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez is also a legitimate threat to claim the starting job, which would once again relegate Gibson to passing-down and change-of-pace work.
- Round 6, Pick 55 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 12
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 7, Pick 66 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 191
The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 75 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 158 - 2022 Rank: 158
Even though the 49ers' 44 sacks last year placed them outside of the top 10, the pressure they applied helped their secondary record 20 interceptions, which was the second-most in the league. Overall, this was the closest thing in this high-scoring era to a shutdown defense, as they gave up the fewest points (277) in the league. The strength of the defense is the trio of Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They also have strong defensive tackles in free agent addition Javon Hargrave along with holdovers Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead -- they should keep the linebackers freed up to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. The cornerback play should be good, not great, and they lack depth behind Charvarius Ward and Isaiah Oliver. With the four superstars up front, this should be a top-five defense.
- Round 9, Pick 86 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 45
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 10, Pick 95 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 68
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
- Round 11, Pick 106 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 54
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 12, Pick 115 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 58
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 13, Pick 126 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 145
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 14, Pick 135 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 147 - 2022 Rank: 147
The Chiefs surprised most when they selected Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (55th overall), as the former SMU star was more so expected to be a Day 3 selection. The Chiefs might have been onto something, though, because Rice was a very productive player at SMU and his athletic testing at the combine was better than expected (4.51-second 40, 41-inch vertical at 6-foot-1, 204). Not just that, but Patrick Mahomes requested that the Chiefs select Rice at some point in the draft. In addition to his springy athleticism, Rice plays with a physicality that makes him a threat both at the catch point and as a ballcarrier after the catch. Fantasy drafters might be leery of Rice's rookie season after Skyy Moore disappointed as a second-round pick in 2022, but it's worth noting that Rice has a more versatile skill set than Moore. Whereas Moore can only realistically earn snaps in the slot, Rice can credibly compete for reps at any wide receiver position in the Chiefs offense.
- Round 15, Pick 146 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 211
Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 16, Pick 155 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 206 - 2022 Rank: 206
Only seven tight ends have recorded at least 550 yards in each of the past two seasons, and Conklin quietly counts himself among that mark. In similarly under-the-radar fashion, he finished second on the Jets in targets (87), catches (58), receiving yards (552) and TDs (three) last year, behind Garrett Wilson in each category. New York's new-look offense brings a more crowded receiving corps to join Aaron Rodgers, as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman both resemble new competition for targets, but this is also a passing game that looks primed to take a significant step forward as a whole. Conklin remains likely to operate as the team's No. 1 tight end, ahead of C.J. Uzomah and 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. It remains to be seen whether that role can lead to an uptick in receiving utility.
- Round 17, Pick 166 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 115
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
