The Boston Clams made a splash in the Iunctis Keeper League draft, but whether it's a cannonball or a belly flop remains to be seen. With a draft grade of C+ and a projected finish of 6th, it seems the Clams are destined for a season of lukewarm success. Their 7th pick in the draft order didn't do them any favors, but they managed to navigate the 17 rounds and come out with a team that's as exciting as a plate of steamed clams.
While the Clams did have a few highlights in their draft, such as snagging Evan Engram at 74 (ADP 78), they also made some questionable choices. Their worst pick came at 34, where they reached for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 111). It's clear that the Clams are willing to take risks, but whether those risks pay off remains to be seen. With a projected record of 8-7-0 and a schedule difficulty ranked as the 3rd toughest in the league, the Clams are in for a season that's as unpredictable as a clam's emotions. Let's hope they can find some pearls in their roster and avoid getting shell-shocked by their opponents.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 30
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 72
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 16
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 4, Pick 34 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 129
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 5, Pick 47 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 32
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 6, Pick 54 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 59
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 7, Pick 67 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 81
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 8, Pick 74 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 79
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 9, Pick 87 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 2
After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.
- Round 10, Pick 94 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 57
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 11, Pick 107 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 103
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 12, Pick 114 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 97
Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.
- Round 13, Pick 127 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 173 - 2022 Rank: 173
Thielen scored six touchdowns last year and 30 total in his final three seasons in Minnesota, but every other stat points to decline, including his 2022 averages of 4.1 catches for 42.1 yards per game. Undeterred, the Panthers signed Thielen to a three-year, $25 million contract that includes $14 million guaranteed at signing, ensuring No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will have at least one experienced starting wideout to target. The team also brought in WR DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst, later adding WR Jonathan Mingo in the second round of the draft. It was a full revamp of the skill positions, while the offensive line has more stability after making huge strides throughout last season. A full-on renaissance is unlikely for Thielen in his age-33 season, but he does at least seem locked in for a starting job and at least a handful of targets per week. Whether that translates to low-end fantasy value or not partially depends on how Young develops under new Panthers head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 14, Pick 134 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 175
It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 147 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 144 - 2022 Rank: 144
Last season, the Ravens performed impressively and ranked third, fifth, and ninth in points allowed per game, sacks and takeaways, respectively. The addition of LB Roquan Smith helped a great deal, and fellow linebacker Patrick Queen stepped up his own performance after the mid-season trade for Smith. However, the Ravens suffered a setback this offseason with the loss of DE Calais Campbell to the Falcons, while OLB Justin Houston, who posted 9.5 sacks last season, has not been signed yet. As a result, it's possible that the Ravens D/ST may not perform at the same level this season, sporting major question marks at cornerback and along the defensive line.
- Round 16, Pick 154 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 152
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
- Round 17, Pick 167 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: 126
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
