In the highly competitive Black Sheep Division, the Squirtle Squad UA made quite a splash in their fantasy draft. With the first overall pick, they had the opportunity to set the tone for the entire league, but unfortunately, their draft grade of C+ suggests they may have missed the mark. Despite the hype surrounding their top pick, Garrett Wilson, who was selected at 24th overall despite an ADP of 20, it seems the Squirtle Squad UA may have overestimated their potential. On the other hand, their worst pick, Alvin Kamara, drafted at 49th overall with an ADP of 80, leaves us scratching our heads and wondering what they were thinking.
Adding to the intrigue of their draft, the Squirtle Squad UA managed to draft not one, not two, but three players from the same team. While this may seem like a bold strategy, it remains to be seen whether this will pay off for them. With a projected finish of 5th place and a projected record of 8-6-0, the Squirtle Squad UA seems destined for a middle-of-the-pack performance. Their projected points of 1540.59 and a schedule difficulty ranking of 10th out of 12 teams further solidify their status as a team that may struggle to make waves in the league. With one player on a bye week in week 9, the Squirtle Squad UA will need to rely on their remaining roster to carry them through.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 8
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 24 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 62
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 3
Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.
- Round 4, Pick 48 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 104
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 50
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 6, Pick 72 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 195
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 7, Pick 73 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 54
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 8, Pick 96 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 306
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 9, Pick 97 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 33
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 10, Pick 120 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 89 - 2022 Rank: 91
Meyers continues to ascend as an NFL wideout, a conversion project that started in 2016 after he arrived to North Carolina State as a quarterback recruit. Perhaps Meyers will unveil a trick pass now and then, but at this point he's established himself as a natural wide receiver. After primarily lining up as a slot receiver in New England, Josh McDaniels might envision more of an all-around role for Meyers with the Raiders, if only because it's impossible to see how slot specialist Hunter Renfrow would see the field if it were Meyers in the slot. It's not a given that Meyers thrives outside -- his 4.63-second 40 is not normally what you look for in a boundary wideout -- but his lack of speed can be mitigated somewhat if the Raiders line up with tight splits. If the Raiders line up in narrow formations then it places Meyers a little closer to the slot than if he were lining up closer to the sideline, and perhaps that's all the accommodation he needs. With 303 targets on his last 2,180 snaps (118 per 850 snaps) and a three-year, $33 million contract in hand it's safe to say that Meyers will be busy with the Raiders one way or another. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) stays healthy, Meyers should be a decent bet to surpass 70 catches on the year, even with Davante Adams raking ahead of him.
- Round 11, Pick 121 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 310
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 12, Pick 144 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 130
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 13, Pick 145 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: -
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
DEF - Round 14, Pick 168 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 197 - 2022 Rank: 165
Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in points allowed (371) last year. The Packers had playmakers in the secondary that helped them finish fifth in the league with 17 interceptions. But in terms of pass rush, they recorded just 34 sacks, the sixth-fewest in the league. As has been the case the last few years, the Packers project to be a terrible run defense. They don't have a single run defender who is considered a plus option. The pass defense continues to be one of the better ones in the league, though. Not only is the cornerback group strong, led by Jaire Alexander, but safety Rudy Ford as well as the LBs are outstanding. Rashan Gary is easily their best pass rusher, and if Lukas Van Ness is able to pressure consistently, they'd have great bookends. On paper, this should be an average defense, but they're not dominant in any one area. As a result, this will likely be a middling and uninspiring fantasy unit.
- Round 15, Pick 169 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 128 - 2022 Rank: -
A 2023 second-round draft pick, Reed has a chance to earn a significant role in the Packers' offense this season. The Packers are young and inexperienced at wide receiver with second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs his main competition for targets. Reed showed versatility in college and should have little trouble earning a spot in the top-three WRs, even if he doesn't over take Watson or Doubs. But the Packers are likely to remain a run-heavy offense, which could limit the WR targers. New quarterback Jordan Love is also a factor. Reed's development could hinge on Love's development.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
