In the Black Sheep Division, where conformity is frowned upon, the 🖕🏼 team made a bold statement with their draft performance. Despite picking 4th in the draft order, they managed to assemble a roster that has the potential to leave their opponents feeling a bit sore. With a draft grade of A-, they clearly had a game plan and executed it flawlessly. Their projected record of 9-5-0 and projected finish in 2nd place show that they are not here to play nice.
One of the highlights of their draft was snagging Breece Hall at pick 52, a steal considering his ADP of 37. This pick alone could be a game-changer for the team. However, not every pick was a winner. The team's worst pick was Skyy Moore at pick 93, well above his ADP of 124. Hopefully, this pick won't come back to haunt them. With the 4th toughest schedule out of 12 teams, the 🖕🏼 team will have to work hard to prove that their draft prowess wasn't just a one-finger salute to luck. But if their team name is any indication, they won't back down easily.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 45
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 30
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: -
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 4, Pick 45 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 141
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 5, Pick 52 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 171
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 6, Pick 69 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 7
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 7, Pick 76 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 51
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 8, Pick 93 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 322
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
- Round 9, Pick 100 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 139
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
- Round 10, Pick 117 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: -
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 11, Pick 124 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: -
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 141 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 162
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
- Round 13, Pick 148 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 167
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 14, Pick 165 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 228 - 2022 Rank: 148
Campbell played more games in 2022 than in his first three NFL seasons combined, but the Colts' quarterback issues kept him from truly capitalizing on his good health last season. The 2019 second-round pick still has enticing size and athleticism and posted solid numbers while working primarily out of the slot, earning a one-year, $4.7 million contract from the Giants this offseason. Campbell will have plenty of competition for targets on his new team, and if he doesn't establish some early chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones he could become a forgotten man in an offense that also features holdovers Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, plus new tight end Darren Waller and 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
- Round 15, Pick 172 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 140
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
