Jerry's Kid had a draft that can only be described as... average. With a draft grade of C+ and a projected finish of 5th, they seem destined for mediocrity. Their draft order of 11th didn't do them any favors, but they managed to make the best of it. The highlight of their draft was snagging David Montgomery at pick 86, a steal considering his ADP of 78. However, they also made a questionable move by reaching for AJ Dillon at pick 62, who had an ADP of 100. It's always a gamble when you go against the experts, and it remains to be seen if this gamble will pay off for Jerry's Kid.
In an interesting twist, Jerry's Kid decided to go all-in on a single team, drafting four players from the same squad. While this strategy can pay off if the team performs well, it also puts all their eggs in one basket. Will CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup, and Deuce Vaughn be the key to Jerry's Kid's success, or will they sink the team? Only time will tell. With three players on bye week 7, Jerry's Kid will need to find some creative solutions to keep their lineup competitive. All in all, it's hard to say what the future holds for Jerry's Kid, but one thing's for sure: they'll be right in the middle of the pack, just like their team name suggests.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 25
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 21
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
- Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 44
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 66
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 5, Pick 59 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 36
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 87
Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.
- Round 7, Pick 83 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 47
A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.
- Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 76
Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.
- Round 9, Pick 107 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 250
Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.
- Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 116
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 131 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 147
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 187 - 2022 Rank: 213
Injuries could well end up being the story of Gallup's career when it's all said and done. A third-round pick in 2018, the Colorado State product topped 1,100 receiving yards in his second NFL season and appeared poised for a big run in an explosive offense, but Gallup hasn't sniffed that kind of production since as he and quarterback Dak Prescott have rarely been 100 percent healthy at the same time. An ACL tear that shut the wideout down in the second half of 2021 also seemed to hamper Gallup in 2022, and he didn't have the same ability to gain separation once he was back in action. The Cowboys hope a healthy offseason will allow him to return to form, but the team also hedged its bets by trading for Brandin Cooks to be the No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb. Gallup has contributed in the No. 3 role before, but with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible the Dallas passing game won't be able to support three receivers again to that extent.
- Round 13, Pick 155 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 242 - 2022 Rank: -
Tiny by NFL running back standards, Vaughn's 5-foot-5 frame didn't stop him from being incredibly productive at Kansas State, and the Cowboys decided to invest a sixth-round pick in him rather than try to sign him as a priority UDFA. There are advantages to being a David in a land of Goliaths, and Darren Sproles made a career out of getting lost behind his offensive line before exploding into open space, but Vaughn has a lot to prove before he'll be at that level. If he's going to carve out a role it will likely come via his plus receiving skills. Dallas' backfield is wide open behind Tony Pollard, and while Vaughn almost certainly won't be a factor on early downs, he could inherit a sliver of the multi-purpose role Pollard held before ascending to the starting spot.
- Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 184
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
- Round 15, Pick 179 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 28
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
