In the deep waters of the Texas Swimming league, the Matagorda Mudskippers made quite a splash with their draft performance. Unfortunately, it was more of a belly flop than an elegant dive. With the 11th pick in the draft order, they had high hopes of reeling in some top talent, but their selections left much to be desired. The draft grade of D- speaks volumes about their questionable choices, as they failed to make a splash with their picks.
Projected to finish in 12th place with a dismal 3-11-0 record, the Mudskippers are swimming against the current right from the start. Their projected points of 2605.45 are as elusive as a slippery fish, and their schedule difficulty ranks as the 3rd toughest out of 14 teams. To make matters worse, they have three players on bye week 5, leaving them high and dry during a crucial period of the season. It seems the Mudskippers' best pick was Dalvin Cook, drafted at 102, but even that shining moment is overshadowed by their worst pick, Brock Purdy, selected at 39 when their ADP was a whopping 126. Looks like the Mudskippers are going to need more than just a little luck to swim their way to victory this season.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 13 - 2022 Rank: 49
There are very few players in NFL history who compare to Ekeler, and aside from maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, none are in the league today. Among active players Ekeler is one of a kind, and the Chargers offense would be in a lot of trouble without him. Ekeler has reached volume/efficiency thresholds as a pass catcher otherwise only matched historically by Marshall Faulk, so when a pass catcher that productive adds 25 rushing touchdowns over two years it's unsurprising that Ekeler is now a consensus first-round fantasy pick. Ekeler is too small to hold up with a big rushing workload (that's why he's not Faulk), but his per-carry returns are excellent and his effectiveness as a runner should never be questioned. As much as Ekeler might be vulnerable to rushing touchdown regression, it won't occur on the basis of ability - if the touchdown carries are there for the taking, Ekeler is still a great bet to claim them. After a brief contract standoff earlier in the offseason, Ekeler raised the white flag and clarified that he will report for training camp.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 69 - 2022 Rank: 19
Fields had the second-best rushing season ever for a quarterback, and the Bears really didn't turn him loose until just before mid season. Durability down the stretch became a concern, as he injured his shoulder. Fields lacked legitimate receiving weapons last season. As a result, it was very difficult for the passing game to have any consistency. There was a short period of time after the coaching staff opened up the offense in which he had both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, and they had moderate success during that time. But Fields threw for over 190 yards just twice, with 254 being his highest mark of the season. However, he did throw touchdown passes in 11 of his last 13 games. With the team adding DJ Moore at receiver, Fields now goes into 2023 with a legitimate arsenal of weapons. If he's even passable as a thrower, this offense can quickly make a massive jump forward. And as long as Fields has his rushing ability, he'll be a very high-floor fantasy option. Improved passing production could make him elite.
- Round 3, Pick 39 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 114
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 4, Pick 46 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 82
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 5, Pick 67 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 162
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 6, Pick 74 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 769
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 7, Pick 95 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 260
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 8, Pick 102 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 79
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 9, Pick 123 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 268
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
- Round 10, Pick 130 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 52 - 2022 Rank: 608
Ford will enter training camp as Nick Chubb's backup after the Browns opted against re-signing both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson. A fifth-round pick last year, Ford was limited mainly to kick returns as a rookie. However, in 2021 he had an impressive final collegiate season at Cincinnati with 20 touchdowns and more than 1,500 scrimmage yards. Prior to that, Ford played ahead of eventual third-round pick Brian Robinson at Alabama. Ford has average size for an NFL RB at 5-10, 210, and he was clocked at 4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash last spring. The Browns seem to be believers, with 2021 sixth-round pick Demetric Felton representing Ford's most serious competition for playing time behind Chubb unless the team signs a noteworthy veteran over the summer.
- Round 11, Pick 151 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2556 - 2022 Rank: 189
Duvernay was poised to surpass his prior career highs for receiving in 2022, only to be sidelined for the remainder of the season after breaking his foot in December. His prospects for involvement in the Baltimore offense have not improved in recent months. While the Ravens hired OC Todd Monken to lead an offense with a greater emphasis on passing, the team also prioritized its WR room this offseason. Notably, the Ravens added Odell Beckham in free agency, drafted Zay Flowers in the first round, and brought on Nelson Agholor for depth. Additionally, 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman is expected to start if he returns healthy from his own 2022 foot injury. Duvernay remains the favorite to handle kick and punt returns, but that may be the full extent of his role some weeks.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 158 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 11
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 13, Pick 179 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 150
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 14, Pick 186 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1262 - 2022 Rank: 169
Hicks joined the Vikings in 2022, his third team in his eight-year NFL career. He didn't miss a beat with the switch, tallying 128 tackles - the second-highest mark of his career - to top the century mark for the fourth consecutive campaign. Minnesota also asked Hicks to take on additional responsibilities in coverage, and he rose to the occasion by racking up 10 passes defensed. Entering his age-31 season, Hicks has been a picture of health by playing in every game across the last four campaigns. Assuming that continues, he'll remain a prominent member of the defense and is also a good bet to add to his impressive career resume.
- Round 15, Pick 207 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 213 - 2022 Rank: 352
After leading the Titans in targets (91), catches (53) and receiving yards (527) last season, Woods is set to play a prominent role in a different AFC South receiving corps. He's the most established option in a Texans wide receiver room that also includes Nico Collins, John Metchie (hamstring), Noah Brown, Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. Three of those WRs have yet to play a down in the NFL, and the other two have topped 500 yards in a season once between them. As a two-time 1,000-yard receiver, the 31-year-old Woods will be an experienced option for rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud to lean on, and Woods likely will be penciled into a starting role after signing a two-year, $15.25 million contract. The veteran WR has topped 500 yards in all 10 of his previous NFL campaigns, and it's possible Woods will get back some of the burst he lacked last season after tearing his ACL in Nov. 2021. The Texans have won four or fewer games in each of the past three seasons, so they could find themselves in frequent pass-heavy game scripts playing from behind.
- Round 16, Pick 214 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1900 - 2022 Rank: 555
When Agholor was signed by the Ravens in March, it seemed like he had a decent chance to start for the team this season. Since then, the Ravens has brought in Odell Beckham and first-round pick Zay Flowers, potentially dropping Agholor to fourth or fifth on the depth chart. Agholor is entering his ninth season and has been in decline since his 2020 renaissance in Las Vegas, where he recorded more receiving yards (896) and touchdowns (eight) than he produced over two subsequent seasons in New England combined. While reportedly one of Baltimore's standouts during spring practices, Agholor nonetheless finds himself in a precarious position, competing for snaps in a WR room that also has Beckham, Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay. The Ravens also have a two receiving threats at tight end in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, which further reduces the odds of Agholor operating as a high-volume pass catcher.
- Round 17, Pick 235 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 580 - 2022 Rank: 380
- Round 18, Pick 242 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 180 - 2022 Rank: 1615
The Saints invested a third-round pick in Miller this April as they started to prepare for the transition from Alvin Kamara, which may be a couple of years away. Although Miller has the traits to be an early down RB, he's far from a sure thing. He looked slow on inside runs in college and often tried to break runs outside instead of using his 215-pound frame to attack defenders. The Saints also brought in veteran back Jamaal Williams, a reliable runner between the tackles who won't make anyone miss and can't outrun defensive backs. That makes Miller the more explosive option while Kamara serves a three-game suspension to start the season, but it isn't clear how much the Saints value the rookie's speed and acceleration relative to Williams' reliability as a pass blocker and inside runner.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
