AfterDeath's performance in the Texas Swimming draft left much to be desired. Despite having the 5th pick in the draft order, they failed to make a splash with their selections. With a draft grade of D-, it's safe to say that their team is sinking before it even hits the water. Projected to finish dead last with a record of 0-14-0, AfterDeath seems destined to drown in the depths of the league.
One of the few bright spots for AfterDeath was their selection of Pat Freiermuth at pick 117, well below his average draft position of 76. This steal of a pick might be their only hope of staying afloat. Unfortunately, their draft was marred by the questionable decision to draft Ja'Marr Chase at pick 5, despite his average draft position being 3. It seems like AfterDeath is determined to swim against the current and make things harder for themselves.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 86
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 24 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 57
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 3, Pick 33 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 89
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 4, Pick 52 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 74
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 5, Pick 61 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 368
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 6, Pick 80 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 97
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 7, Pick 89 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 314
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 8, Pick 108 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 102 - 2022 Rank: 232
Brown is at his best when he's used as a downfield target, however he had a career low 6.6 yards per target and 10.6 yards per reception with the Cardinals last year. It didn't help that Kyler Murray missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but regardless, this was far from a big play offense last year. There's also concern that Murray may not be ready to start the season due to his injury. Brown did miss Weeks 7 through 11 with an injury last year, but he had been coming on just before then. He posted at least 68 yards in each of the five games leading up to week 11. And during that stretch, he averaged 11.6 targets with no fewer than nine in any game. but once he returned, and specially due to the quarterback play, he never surpassed 61 yards the rest of the way. If Murray was going to be a full go for the season, Brown's fantasy value would be much higher. but if Murray misses time, the drop off in quarterback play is so significant that it hurts Brown's fantasy value.
- Round 9, Pick 117 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 272
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 136 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 12
Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,
- Round 11, Pick 145 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 117
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 12, Pick 164 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 2596 - 2022 Rank: 568
Even though McCoy played in four games last year and averaged 34 pass attempts per game, he wasn't a strong fantasy option. In addition to averaging 195 yards per game, he threw just one touchdown pass to three interceptions. And if he's pressed into starting duty to start the season while Kyler Murray (knee) recovers, he'll be without his top weapon from last year, DeAndre Hopkins. Since 2010, McCoy has mostly been a decent backup quarterback, but entering his age-35 season, he may just be an emergency option for an NFL team. The Cardinals released him in late August and went with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune as their quarterbacks instead.
- Round 13, Pick 173 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 620 - 2022 Rank: 529
- Round 14, Pick 192 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 645 - 2022 Rank: 1054
- Round 15, Pick 201 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 162 - 2022 Rank: 752
A fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2022, Ferguson didn't post big receiving numbers in college. As a rookie, though, he showed flashes of being more than just a depth option in the NFL when injuries to Dalton Schultz pushed him into a more prominent role. Schultz was allowed to leave in free agency, and while Ferguson moved to the top of the depth chart as a result, he will face real competition for that spot from 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker, as well as fellow second-year tight end Peyton Hendershot. Schoonmaker was viewed as the better prospect when he was drafted, although he did battle foot issues over the summer that may have cost him some key development time. Even if Ferguson wins the Week 1 starting job, all three tight ends could wind up splitting the receiving workload.
- Round 16, Pick 220 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 434
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
- Round 17, Pick 229 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 160 - 2022 Rank: 294
Now in the second year of a two-year contract with the Chargers, Everett heads into 2023 after a Chargers debut that was more busy than it was effective. Everett's target rate was excellent - 87 targets on 648 snaps should be major currency in such an enviable passing game - but the returns for those targets were underwhelming. It's a theme throughout Everett's career: despite being fast and making the occasional big play, his efficiency leaves something to be desired. To be fair to Everett, his 2022 production looks better if you include his performance in the Chargers' wildcard round loss to the Jaguars. If you include that game, then Everett finished 2022 with 64 catches for 663 yards and five touchdowns on 95 targets - an improved 67.4 percent catch rate at 7.0 yards per target compared to 66.7 percent at 6.4 YPT from the regular season - but it's worth remembering that Mike Williams missed that game and the Jaguars clearly sold out to stop Keenan Allen (six catches for 61 yards on 13 targets) and Austin Ekeler (two catches for eight yards on four targets). Everett is likely an excellent fantasy TE2 who could provide TE1 returns with a little luck, just don't expect the Jaguars game to be the norm.
- Round 18, Pick 248 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 123 - 2022 Rank: 501
When healthy, Edwards has been a dependable player for Baltimore, providing a reliable source of power running off the bench and making several starts when J.K. Dobbins couldn't play. While limited to just nine games last season after an ACL tear the year before, Edwards once again managed to average 5.0 yards per carry -- a mark he's never failed to reach. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken may create some challenges and puts the streak in serious jeopardy. Former OC Greg Roman's heavy-package runs suited Edwards well, allowing him to focus on running between the tackles while defenses had to account for the threat of QB Lamar Jackson running around the end. Monken's expected emphasis on the passing game likely will come with fewer option plays, which means Edwards must demonstrate competence as a blocker and/or pass catcher to earn significant playing time. If the Ravens run less, as anticipated, Dobbins' superiority in these areas could result in fewer snaps for Edwards, especially since he is in the final year of his contract following a pay cut.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
