In a draft that had the League of Endzone Dancers (B) on their feet, EBDBBnB managed to snag an impressive A grade. With a projected record of 8-6-0, this team is poised to make some noise on the dance floor. Despite being the second pick in the draft order, EBDBBnB showed off their moves and wowed the crowd with their selections in the 15 rounds. Their best pick was Josh Jacobs, who was drafted at 26, beating out their ADP of 19. Talk about a steal! However, not every move was a perfect 10, as their worst pick was Brandon Aiyuk, who was drafted at 50, falling short of their ADP of 69. Looks like they stumbled a bit on that one, but hey, nobody's perfect.
With a projected finish of 3rd, EBDBBnB is ready to show the League of Endzone Dancers (B) what they're made of. They'll need to bring their A-game to overcome the 5th toughest schedule in the league, but this team is up for the challenge. The only hiccup on their journey to glory is the fact that they have 4 players on bye week 9. Hopefully, they've got some fancy footwork up their sleeves to navigate that obstacle. All in all, EBDBBnB has set the stage for an exciting season. Get ready to see some impressive moves from this team, because they're about to dance their way to victory!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 7
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 23 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 10
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 4, Pick 47 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 38
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 45
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 6, Pick 71 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 37
A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.
- Round 7, Pick 74 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 86
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 8, Pick 95 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 104
Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.
- Round 9, Pick 98 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 98
Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.
- Round 10, Pick 119 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 73
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 122 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 122
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 12, Pick 143 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 100
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 13, Pick 146 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 125
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 14, Pick 167 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 21
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
- Round 15, Pick 170 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 193 - 2022 Rank: 78
Singletary spent most of the past four years as Buffalo's starting RB after being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC over that span, and after scoring just six scrimmage touchdowns in his first two seasons, Singletary found the end zone 14 times over the last two years. Despite underwhelming measurables (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds with 4.66 speed), Singletary has proven to be a capable NFL running back, but he's looking at a massive downgrade in the situation heading into 2023. After playing the lead RB role in one of the league's most prolific offenses, Singletary's expected to be bumped to the backup spot behind Dameon Pierce in a Houston offense that's been one of the least effective in recent years. The Texans are going through a makeover on offense, and the addition of Singletary on a one-year deal is part of that effort, but there isn't much upside here barring an injury to Pierce. Perhaps Singletary can carve out more playing time on passing downs since Pierce is unproven as a receiver, though Singletary's career mark of 5.0 yards per target doesn't inspire much confidence in that regard, either.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
