In a draft that left fans feeling more like wallflowers than dance partners, Fantasy Team managed to secure a solid C grade. With a projected record of 6-8-0 and a projected finish in 10th place, it seems this team's moves on the draft floor may not be enough to secure a spot in the playoffs. Despite the lackluster performance, there were a few shining moments that gave fans a glimmer of hope.
The best pick of the night goes to Fantasy Team for snagging Joe Mixon at 44, a steal considering their ADP of 34. This player is set to achieve great things on the field and could be a key contributor to Fantasy Team's success. However, not all picks were as graceful. The worst pick of the night goes to the selection of Deshaun Watson at 68, a player who had an ADP of 87. It seems Fantasy Team may have stumbled on this one, but only time will tell if this pick will truly be a misstep or a hidden gem.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 47 - 2022 Rank: 62
The Rams offense was a mess last year, largely due to offensive line issues as well as the lack of a rushing attack. Also, free agent addition Allen Robinson didn't work out for the team, and all they really had to lean on at that point was Kupp. From a production standpoint, he mostly picked up where he left off in 2021. He had at least nine targets in all but one game. He also had at least 122 yards in four of eight games. Kupp also had at least 79 yards in seven of the eight games he played. However, he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the last eight games of the season. Other than missing eight games in 2018 as well, he had a very healthy career to date. Even though Kupp's entering his age-30 season, there appeared to be no sign of decline last year. He still should be a very high floor and high ceiling fantasy option. and Kupp should be an obvious first-round draft pick in most leagues. But keep your eye on an in-practice hamstring injury that Kupp suffered in early August.
- Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 124
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 60
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 41
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 5, Pick 53 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 123
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 6, Pick 68 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 243
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 7, Pick 77 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 128
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 8, Pick 92 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 179
Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.
- Round 9, Pick 101 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 250
Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.
- Round 10, Pick 116 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 214
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 125 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 95
Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,
- Round 12, Pick 140 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 135 - 2022 Rank: -
The NFL hasn't seen a running back of Achane's undersized frame succeed as more than a gadget player since Warrick Dunn in 1997. On the other hand, smaller wide receivers have begun finding real success in the modern league, and Achane is a more than capable pass-catcher. It shouldn't be overlooked, though, that he did hold up to significant volume at Texas A&M. Neither of Raheem Mostert nor Jeff Wilson is a slouch, so it's not as though the rookie-third-round pick would have a clear path to workhorse status even if he did boast prototypical size. Excitement over Achane stems less from projections of the volume and more from what his tools and 4.32-40 speed might accomplish in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Schemed plays ought to be regularly featured for Achane, and if he's able to earn sizeable weekly volume in Miami's backfield timeshare, his production could surprise.
- Round 13, Pick 149 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: -
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 14, Pick 164 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 40
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
- Round 15, Pick 173 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 255 - 2022 Rank: 256
It remains to be seen how new coach Sean Payton assesses the Denver tight end room, but the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett was certainly a huge fan of Dulcich. Despite missing a handful of OTAs with what was initially described as a core injury and then almost all of training camp with a nagging hamstring issue, Hackett made Dulcich a foundational piece of the team offense, handing Dulcich not just the starting role but a heavy target rate immediately upon his return in Week 6, despite never actually being healthy enough to compete for the job in practice. With minimal blocking assignments, Dulcich was allowed to function basically like Denver's WR3 alongside Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Dulcich is a liability as a blocker and is both smaller and much slower than Albert Okwuegbunam, but it's possible that Dulcich is good enough as a route runner that it doesn't matter. In addition to Okwuegbunam, Dulcich needs to hold off former Saints tight end Adam Trautman, who's a superior blocker to both Dulcich and Okwuegbunam.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
