In the SAFS Keeper league, Kablarski OVNOVI showed off their drafting prowess by earning an impressive A+ grade. With a projected record of 12-2-0, they're poised to make a strong run for the playoffs. Despite picking 4th in the draft order, Kablarski OVNOVI managed to snag some hidden gems and surprise steals throughout the 14 rounds. Their best pick was Derek Carr, who was drafted at 172, well below their ADP of 129. It seems like Kablarski OVNOVI has a knack for finding hidden talent!
Of course, even the best drafters have their missteps, and Kablarski OVNOVI's worst pick was Samaje Perine, who was drafted at 116, just slightly higher than their ADP of 118. But hey, nobody's perfect, right? Despite this minor hiccup, Kablarski OVNOVI's overall draft performance was nothing short of impressive. With a projected finish of 2nd and a tough schedule ahead, they'll need to rely on their strategic drafting skills to secure a spot in the playoffs. Kablarski OVNOVI is definitely a team to watch out for this season!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 16
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 2, Pick 25 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 49
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 3, Pick 32 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 4, Pick 53 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 104
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 5, Pick 60 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 686
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 6, Pick 81 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 203
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
DEF - Round 7, Pick 88 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 47
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 8, Pick 109 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 98
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 9, Pick 116 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 171
Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.
- Round 10, Pick 137 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 251
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 11, Pick 144 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 181
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 165 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 108
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 13, Pick 172 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 20
Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.
- Round 14, Pick 193 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 215 - 2022 Rank: -
With Robbie Gould no longer with the 49ers, the team drafted Moody with a third-round pick. With that type of investment, Moody, who converted 87 percent of his field-goal attempts at Michigan, has a strong chance to enter the year as the starter. Due to the explosiveness of the 49ers offense, Moody should have a solid weekly scoring floor, and is worth considering as a top-12 option at his position.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
