In the SAFS Keeper league, Shelpas UTD made their mark with a draft that earned them a solid C grade. With a projected record of 9-4-1, they're looking to secure a spot in the playoffs, where 6 out of the 14 teams will battle it out. Despite their 2nd draft order position, Shelpas UTD managed to create a team that is projected to finish 6th, showcasing their ability to defy expectations. Their projected points of 1339 indicate a strong offense, but they'll have to navigate the 8th toughest schedule in the league to achieve success.
While Shelpas UTD had some hits and misses in their draft, their best pick came in the form of Gerald Everett. Snagging him at 195, well below his ADP of 133, was a stroke of genius. This player is set to achieve great things for the team. On the other hand, their worst pick was Kirk Cousins, who was selected at 114, just slightly above his ADP of 117. Hopefully, this pick won't come back to haunt them. All in all, Shelpas UTD's draft may have earned them a C grade, but with their unconventional approach and projected 6th place finish, they're proving that they're not afraid to shake things up in the SAFS Keeper league.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 117
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 2, Pick 27 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 188
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 29
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 4, Pick 55 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 54
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 5, Pick 58 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 45
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 6, Pick 83 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 193
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 7, Pick 86 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 77
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 8, Pick 111 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 177
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 9, Pick 114 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 114 - 2022 Rank: 7
Typically when each season ends, Cousins puts up very good seasonal numbers. It's the week-to-week ride that can be very problematic for fantasy managers. He threw for the second-most yardage of his career last year, but don't forget we're in a 17-game season these days, so those numbers can be skewed a bit. Cousins threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was his highest total in a season to go along with 29 touchdowns. And although he's great for having explosive games, Cousins had three games with at least three touchdown passes, he often goes flat. He had eight games in which he threw zero or one touchdown. Cousins also had three games in which he failed to surpass 175 passing yards. Still not enough? He had four games with multiple interceptions. Cousins' ceiling games make him an excellent option in best ball leagues. But in redraft leagues, the implosion games are often unpredictable, and that makes him better as a QB2 in leagues that start a single quarterback. He's obviously a great option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
- Round 10, Pick 139 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 175
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 142 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 216 - 2022 Rank: 121
Coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme dragged Miami to a playoff appearance last season, but the need for improvements on defense were obvious. Enter DC extraordinaire Vic Fangio, who promises not only to unlock Bradley Chubb (traded to the Dolphins last November), but provide a salve across the board. Chubb isn't the only name of note up front, with the presence of 2021 first-rounder Jaelen Phillip also being notable. Free-agency additions LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott arrive to reinforce returning starters LB Jerome Baker and S Jevon Holland, giving Miami a well-rounded core before even accounting for the team's standout CB duo. Trading for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Xavien Howard puts legitimate top-5 upside within range for this defensive unit.
- Round 12, Pick 167 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 137 - 2022 Rank: 267
Hurst signed a three-year contract with the Panthers in the offseason, joining his third team in three years and fourth NFL franchise overall. From a fantasy perspective, it is a favorable landing spot for a tight end who would only be a backup for some teams. The Panthers lack not only competition at Hurst's position but also talented pass catchers overall, as they traded away WR DJ Moore to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young first overall. While far from explosive, Hurst has enjoyed spurts of fantasy utility in which he drew a handful of targets per week, including last season in Cincinnati as the fourth option in a WR-heavy passing game. With fewer standout players to compete with in Carolina, he could even challenge his 2020 career high of 88 targets, which resulted in a 56-571-6 receiving line for the Falcons that year. Heading into 2023, snap competition is weak, to say the least, with fellow Panthers tight ends Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble having repeatedly proven themselves non-factors in the passing game.
- Round 13, Pick 170 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 242 - 2022 Rank: -
Tiny by NFL running back standards, Vaughn's 5-foot-5 frame didn't stop him from being incredibly productive at Kansas State, and the Cowboys decided to invest a sixth-round pick in him rather than try to sign him as a priority UDFA. There are advantages to being a David in a land of Goliaths, and Darren Sproles made a career out of getting lost behind his offensive line before exploding into open space, but Vaughn has a lot to prove before he'll be at that level. If he's going to carve out a role it will likely come via his plus receiving skills. Dallas' backfield is wide open behind Tony Pollard, and while Vaughn almost certainly won't be a factor on early downs, he could inherit a sliver of the multi-purpose role Pollard held before ascending to the starting spot.
- Round 14, Pick 195 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 160 - 2022 Rank: 206
Now in the second year of a two-year contract with the Chargers, Everett heads into 2023 after a Chargers debut that was more busy than it was effective. Everett's target rate was excellent - 87 targets on 648 snaps should be major currency in such an enviable passing game - but the returns for those targets were underwhelming. It's a theme throughout Everett's career: despite being fast and making the occasional big play, his efficiency leaves something to be desired. To be fair to Everett, his 2022 production looks better if you include his performance in the Chargers' wildcard round loss to the Jaguars. If you include that game, then Everett finished 2022 with 64 catches for 663 yards and five touchdowns on 95 targets - an improved 67.4 percent catch rate at 7.0 yards per target compared to 66.7 percent at 6.4 YPT from the regular season - but it's worth remembering that Mike Williams missed that game and the Jaguars clearly sold out to stop Keenan Allen (six catches for 61 yards on 13 targets) and Austin Ekeler (two catches for eight yards on four targets). Everett is likely an excellent fantasy TE2 who could provide TE1 returns with a little luck, just don't expect the Jaguars game to be the norm.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
