In the wild jungle of The Patron Bowl, the Huss Monkeys swung from vine to vine during the draft, but unfortunately, they failed to land on any fruitful branches. With a draft grade of C+ and a projected finish of 5th, it seems like these monkeys will be doing more monkeying around than dominating the league. Their projected record of 7-7-0 may leave them feeling like they're stuck in a banana peel, unable to climb higher in the standings.
One bright spot for the Huss Monkeys was their best pick of the draft, selecting Jerry Jeudy at 96, well below his ADP of 70. It seems like they were able to snatch a hidden gem from the jungle, but unfortunately, this success was overshadowed by their worst pick of the draft. They reached for Joe Burrow at 5, much earlier than his ADP of 42, leaving everyone scratching their heads in confusion. Additionally, the Huss Monkeys seemed to have a strong affinity for a particular team, as they drafted not one, not two, but three players from the same team: Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee, and Matthew Stafford. Perhaps they're hoping that the synergy between these players will lead to a successful season, but it's a risky strategy that could leave them swinging from branch to branch, desperately searching for points.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 3
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 43
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 36
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 4, Pick 36 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 118
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
- Round 5, Pick 45 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 57
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 6, Pick 56 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 77
Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.
- Round 7, Pick 65 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 144
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 8, Pick 76 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 179
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 9, Pick 85 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 234
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 10, Pick 96 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 99
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 11, Pick 105 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 137
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 116 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 117
In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.
- Round 13, Pick 125 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 229
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 14, Pick 136 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 167
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 15, Pick 145 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 157 - 2022 Rank: 29
The Rams had a terrible offensive line last year, and their running game was stuck in neutral. As a result, Stafford paid the price with 29 sacks in 11 games. Last year, the team added Allen Robinson in free agency, but either the team didn't properly use him, or Robinson was on the downside of his career. So with very little going his way, Stafford was consistently getting hit, which kept him unable to put up consistent fantasy points. Stafford's 10:8 TD:INT ratio was his worst since 2012. And due to the constant pressure, his 6.9 yards per attempt was significantly lower than any of his last three seasons. Although Stafford had at least 240 passing yards in each of his first six games, he failed to crack 190 in any of his last three. He then suffered a neck injury and was shut down for the season. Going into 2023, Stafford may see an improvement from the offensive line, as a number of starters will return from injuries, and the Rams added guard Steve Avila in the second round of the draft. Coach Sean McVay will have had time to consider different ways for Stafford to attack defenses while hopefully getting the ball out of his hands quicker to keep him healthy. Still, the Rams seem a bit of a rebuilding mess. Stafford shouldn't be considered more than a backup in typical fantasy leagues.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
