Los Bastardos, with their draft grade of D, seem to have embraced the philosophy of 'mediocrity is key' in The Patron Bowl. Despite picking third in the draft order, they managed to assemble a team that is projected to finish 7th with a record of 6-8-0. With a projected points total of 2598.34, they are set to bring a whole new meaning to the term 'average'.
While Los Bastardos did have a few shining moments in the draft, such as their best pick of Mike Evans at 98 (ADP 85), they also had their fair share of head-scratching decisions. Their worst pick of Mike Williams at 63 (ADP 81) left many wondering if they were trying to set a record for the earliest reach of the draft. With a schedule difficulty ranked as the 10th toughest out of 10 teams, Los Bastardos are in for a season filled with challenges. Perhaps they should consider changing their team name to 'The Mediocre Marvels' to better reflect their draft performance.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 61
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: -
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 3, Pick 23 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 168
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 139
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 5, Pick 43 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 9
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 6, Pick 58 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 298
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 7, Pick 63 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 135
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 8, Pick 78 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 141
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 9, Pick 83 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 184
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 10, Pick 98 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 80
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 11, Pick 103 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 64
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 118 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 44
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 13, Pick 123 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 22 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 138 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 278 - 2022 Rank: -
DEF - Round 15, Pick 143 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 133
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
