In a draft that left other teams green with envy, the Leśnica Rads showed off their drafting prowess and secured an impressive A+ grade. With the 5th pick in the draft order, they strategically maneuvered through 17 rounds, skillfully selecting players that are projected to lead them to a 16-2-0 record and a 1st place finish. Their projected points of 2144.5 have the league shaking in their boots, as they are set to dominate the competition.
One of the highlights of the Leśnica Rads' draft was their steal of Patrick Mahomes at the 20th pick, surpassing his ADP of 15. This savvy move demonstrates their ability to spot talent and capitalize on it. However, not every pick was a slam dunk, as they reached a bit for Samaje Perine at the 101st pick, who had an ADP of 118. Hopefully, this pick won't turn out to be a thorn in their side.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 13
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 32
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 45
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 5, Pick 53 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 68
Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.
- Round 6, Pick 68 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 93
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 7, Pick 77 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 102
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 8, Pick 92 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1624 - 2022 Rank: 187
- Round 9, Pick 101 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 123
Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.
- Round 10, Pick 116 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1210 - 2022 Rank: 183
Smith was dealt by the Bears just before the trade deadline last season after it became clear the sides wouldn't agree to terms on a long-term extension. He didn't take much time to acclimate to his new surroundings in Baltimore, as he managed 94 tackles, two sacks, three passes defended, and an interception across 10 games. Smith was rewarded with a five-year, $100 million contract extension in January, and will now be the long-term centerpiece of the Ravens' defense. After an offseason to learn the defense, Smith will officially become the leader of the unit and wear the green dot. While others around the league will have more gaudy sack totals, Smith has topped 160 tackles in consecutive seasons. We should expect more of the same in 2023, which makes him among the safest IDP selections available.
- Round 11, Pick 125 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 209
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
- Round 12, Pick 140 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 63
Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.
- Round 13, Pick 149 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 504
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 14, Pick 164 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1423 - 2022 Rank: 200
- Round 15, Pick 173 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 107
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 16, Pick 188 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 141
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
- Round 17, Pick 197 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 238
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
