In the highly competitive MPLiga B prime draft, the Antonio Clowns had the unfortunate luck of drawing the 12th pick. With 17 rounds to work with, they had their work cut out for them. Despite their best efforts, their draft grade of D+ left much to be desired. The experts predict a lackluster 7-11-0 record, landing them in a less-than-impressive 8th place. Looks like the Clowns are ready to put on a show, but it might not be the kind anyone wants to see.
While the Clowns did manage to snag a few decent picks, their choices left something to be desired. Their best pick of the draft was David Njoku, who was selected at 108, slightly better than their ADP of 95. However, their worst pick of the draft was J.K. Dobbins, taken at 37, much earlier than their ADP of 46. It seems the Clowns were aiming for the stars but ended up with a few too many clowns. To make matters worse, they decided to stack their team with three players from the same team, Bijan Robinson, Younghoe Koo, and Tyler Allgeier. Maybe they're hoping for some kind of team synergy, but it's a risky move that could easily backfire. And let's not forget that they went overboard with drafting linebackers, selecting four when the league average is only 1.5. Looks like the Clowns are ready to juggle their way to an average finish, but will they drop the ball? Only time will tell.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 12 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 1537
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 30
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 3, Pick 36 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 58
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 228
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 5, Pick 60 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 53
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 6, Pick 61 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 55
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 7, Pick 84 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 15
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 8, Pick 85 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 110
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 9, Pick 108 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 144
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 10, Pick 109 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 116
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 11, Pick 132 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 116 - 2022 Rank: 11
After throwing 34 touchdowns in 45 career games, Smith threw 30 touchdown passes last year. Before throwing for 4,282 yards last year, his best prior season was his 2013 rookie season when he threw for 3,046. He was an incredible success story after being written off as a fantasy option, and he didn't even win the Seahawks starting job until the last game of the preseason. For most of last season, Smith was very consistent. He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of 11 games between Weeks 3 and 14. However, Smith ended the season slowly. He threw exactly one touchdown pass in three of his last four games while also throwing for 215 or fewer yards in each of his last three games. There's always concern about paying up for a career year in fantasy football, and with Smith's career year coming at age 31, it raises a lot of red flags. However, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense requires a strong processor at quarterback, and Smith has always been that. In addition, he has excellent wide receiver weapons along with a good running game. Seattle also addressed their offensive line last season, so that it was no longer a liability. Overall, Smith is definitely in position to succeed with another strong season. It's also possible the stars aligned perfectly and his great prior season may see him regress back to career form. Since he is typically being selected outside the top quarterback options in fantasy drafts, there isn't a lot of risk in selecting him.
- Round 12, Pick 133 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 83
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 13, Pick 156 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1112 - 2022 Rank: 176
Oluokun began his career more as a special teams ace rather than defensive stopper while in Atlanta. However, he has led the league in tackles in each of his two seasons with the Jaguars, posting 192 and 184 tackles, respectively. A bit more under the radar is his work in coverage, as he's broken up 11 combined passes across the last two campaigns. In addition to his statistical impact, Oluokun is a leader of the Jaguars' defense. He has served as a captain and also helped turn around the culture of the team after the departure of coach Urban Meyer. The linebacker is entering the final year of his deal with Jacksonville, but there's little reason to doubt that Oluokun will again be among the league's most productive inside linebackers.
- Round 14, Pick 157 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1143 - 2022 Rank: 312
Warner is entering his sixth season in the NFL and has been the picture of consistency. He's been available for either 16 or 17 games in every campaign, benefitting from playing a major role in an excellent defense but also getting some rest due to the excellent depth the team boasts. Warner has no fewer than 118 tackles in a given season and has at least 79 solo tackles in all five of his professional campaigns. If there's a downside to his game, it's a lack of production as a pass rusher, as he has only 6.5 career sacks. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with his work in coverage as he has 35 passes defended and four picks to his ledger. All told, he's an extremely reliable fantasy option due to both his skill and role in a prolific defense.
- Round 15, Pick 180 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 127 - 2022 Rank: 1546
The Packers needed a lead TE, so they drafted Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the second and third rounds of this year's NFL Draft. Of the two, Musgrave is more of a seam stretcher. He needs development in all areas, and he could have significant struggles as a rookie. It's probable he finishes outside the top-24 tight ends, and he'll likely go undrafted in many fantasy leagues. While he'll likely be limited to a dynasty league option in 2023, it's still worth keeping an eye on quarterback Jordan Love's progression and the offensive scheme as a whole to see if Musgrave could eventually work his way up to a fantasy streaming possibility.
- Round 16, Pick 181 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1131 - 2022 Rank: 321
Not all careers progress linearly, but Wilson's certainly has. A third-round pick in 2020, Wilson served primarily on special teams as a rookie. He took a step forward in 2021, only to truly break out in 2022 by tallying 123 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Though he's not overly athletic, Wilson has shown enough intelligence to be an asset in coverage as he has racked up 11 passes defended and seven interceptions across 40 career games. He's a true three-down linebacker. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, Wilson will certainly be a key member of the Bengals defense yet again. The only question is his health, as he's missed eight games in his three-year career.
- Round 17, Pick 204 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1130 - 2022 Rank: 218
Wagner suited up for a team other than the Seahawks for the first time in 2022, as he signed with the division-rival Rams. He has managed at least 100 tackles in each of his 11 seasons as a pro and has proven he can remain productive as he heads into the back end of his career. In fact, he showed a new facet to his game, racking up a career-high six sacks with Los Angeles. Despite things going well away from Seattle on a personal level, Wagner returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal this offseason. He'll certainly be locked into a starting role, and with Jordyn Brooks on the mend from an ACL tear, Wagner should have the chance to lead the team in tackles.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
