In the Movie Forums Fantasy Football league, the Return of the Dark Decade team made a statement with their draft performance. Despite picking 10th in the draft order, they managed to secure an impressive A+ draft grade. With a projected record of 10-4-0 and a projected finish in 2nd place, it seems like this team is ready to bring back the glory days. Their projected points of 1843.16 show that they have the potential to light up the scoreboard, even if their schedule is the 2nd toughest in the league.
While the Return of the Dark Decade team made some solid picks, there were a couple of eyebrow-raising choices. Their best pick came in the form of Deshaun Watson, who was drafted at 111, well below their ADP of 88. This steal of a pick could be a game-changer for the team. On the other hand, their worst pick was James Cook, who was selected at 58, despite having an ADP of 81. It seems like the Dark Decade team took a bit of a gamble with this one. Additionally, the team showed some loyalty by drafting three players from the same team: Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, and Younghoe Koo. It remains to be seen if this strategy will pay off or if it will lead to some bye week headaches.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 47 - 2022 Rank: 78
The Rams offense was a mess last year, largely due to offensive line issues as well as the lack of a rushing attack. Also, free agent addition Allen Robinson didn't work out for the team, and all they really had to lean on at that point was Kupp. From a production standpoint, he mostly picked up where he left off in 2021. He had at least nine targets in all but one game. He also had at least 122 yards in four of eight games. Kupp also had at least 79 yards in seven of the eight games he played. However, he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the last eight games of the season. Other than missing eight games in 2018 as well, he had a very healthy career to date. Even though Kupp's entering his age-30 season, there appeared to be no sign of decline last year. He still should be a very high floor and high ceiling fantasy option. and Kupp should be an obvious first-round draft pick in most leagues. But keep your eye on an in-practice hamstring injury that Kupp suffered in early August.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 28
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 3, Pick 34 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 78 - 2022 Rank: 63
Higgins is well established as a high-quality WR2 in both real life and fantasy football. There's been some talk of him getting a WR1 opportunity as he enters the final year of his contract, but the Bengals don't seem interested in succumbing to trade rumors. Higgins showed up for the offseason program, and the team can keep him around next year with a franchise tag even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer/fall. He had at least 908 yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns the past two years. At 6-4, he excels on jump balls and contested catches, and although he is not as fast as teammate Ja'Marr Chase or as much of a YAC threat, Higgins nonetheless has proven quite useful on short and intermediate passes. In terms of fantasy upside beyond the 1,200-yard range or so, that'll probably only happen for Higgins in Cincinnati if Chase misses extended time -- a scenario that would leave the talented 2020 second-round pick as Joe Burrow's unquestioned top option.
- Round 4, Pick 39 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 40
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 5, Pick 58 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 207
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 6, Pick 63 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 277
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 7, Pick 82 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 31
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 87 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 158 - 2022 Rank: 85
Even though the 49ers' 44 sacks last year placed them outside of the top 10, the pressure they applied helped their secondary record 20 interceptions, which was the second-most in the league. Overall, this was the closest thing in this high-scoring era to a shutdown defense, as they gave up the fewest points (277) in the league. The strength of the defense is the trio of Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They also have strong defensive tackles in free agent addition Javon Hargrave along with holdovers Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead -- they should keep the linebackers freed up to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. The cornerback play should be good, not great, and they lack depth behind Charvarius Ward and Isaiah Oliver. With the four superstars up front, this should be a top-five defense.
- Round 9, Pick 106 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 83
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 10, Pick 111 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 201
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 11, Pick 130 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 95
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 12, Pick 135 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 89 - 2022 Rank: 96
Meyers continues to ascend as an NFL wideout, a conversion project that started in 2016 after he arrived to North Carolina State as a quarterback recruit. Perhaps Meyers will unveil a trick pass now and then, but at this point he's established himself as a natural wide receiver. After primarily lining up as a slot receiver in New England, Josh McDaniels might envision more of an all-around role for Meyers with the Raiders, if only because it's impossible to see how slot specialist Hunter Renfrow would see the field if it were Meyers in the slot. It's not a given that Meyers thrives outside -- his 4.63-second 40 is not normally what you look for in a boundary wideout -- but his lack of speed can be mitigated somewhat if the Raiders line up with tight splits. If the Raiders line up in narrow formations then it places Meyers a little closer to the slot than if he were lining up closer to the sideline, and perhaps that's all the accommodation he needs. With 303 targets on his last 2,180 snaps (118 per 850 snaps) and a three-year, $33 million contract in hand it's safe to say that Meyers will be busy with the Raiders one way or another. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) stays healthy, Meyers should be a decent bet to surpass 70 catches on the year, even with Davante Adams raking ahead of him.
- Round 13, Pick 154 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: -
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 14, Pick 159 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 232 - 2022 Rank: 141
Foreman is one of the true success stories of a player making it back from an Achilles injury. Once Christian McCaffrey was traded away by the Panthers last year, Foreman stepped into a large role. His 203 carries was the first big workload he had in his career. And he responded very well by posting a career-high 4.5 yards per carry. Despite having just a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was 76th percentile in yards after contact. But as good as some of his numbers looked, he was inconsistent. He had five games with at least 113 rushing yards. Conversely, he was held to fewer than 25 yards four times. And his performances weren't based on the level of competition. He had some excellent games against strong defenses while having some poor performances against weaker defenses. Now with Chicago, Foreman should bring the thunder to Khalil Herbert's lighting to form a one-two punch in the backfield. Foreman should profile as the primary goal-line back, though Justin Fields is sure to be a factor at the goal. Even though the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round, Foreman is likely a better RB at this stage, and Johnson may not be a major threat to Foreman's role. In his current situation, Foreman has RB2 or flex value in drafts.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 178 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 172
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
- Round 16, Pick 183 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 93
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 17, Pick 202 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 229
Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
