In the Hiawatha Elite League, Deshaun of the Dead shuffled their way to the 11th spot in the draft order, setting the tone for their lackluster performance. With a draft grade of D+, it's safe to say that their team name is more exciting than their draft strategy. Projected to finish 8th with a record of 5-9-0, it seems like the dead will be rising, but only to haunt the middle of the pack.
Deshaun of the Dead's draft strategy was as confusing as a zombie's appetite for brains. While they managed to make a solid pick with Dak Prescott at 110, snatching him up well below his ADP of 78, they stumbled with their worst pick of Deebo Samuel at 35, a reach compared to his ADP of 41. Perhaps they were trying to build an army of quarterbacks, as they ended up with a staggering 4 QBs, far surpassing the league average of 1.8. With three players on bye week 7, it seems like Deshaun of the Dead is preparing for a spooky season ahead. Let's hope they can find some life in their team before it's too late!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: -
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 14
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 134
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 86
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 5, Pick 59 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 190
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 70
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 7, Pick 83 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 95
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 189
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 107 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 130
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 29
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 11, Pick 131 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 175
There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.
- Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 20
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 13, Pick 155 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 120 - 2022 Rank: -
Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. In the days after the draft, much of the conversation by the organization about Johnson centered around his leadership and special-teams ability. It was also mentioned that he could be good in pass protection. When a team doesn't first talk about the player's ability at the position he was drafted, that's a massive red flag. Although he's a bigger back at 6', 219 pounds, he ran below average in his 40-yard-dash time and explosiveness drills. Although he forced many missed tackles in college, he took a significant number of his runs to the outside. That's unlikely to be a recipe for success at the NFL level, especially for a slower runner. Johnson may eventually become a staple in the Chicago backfield, but it may be difficult for him to move past D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert this year.
- Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 201 - 2022 Rank: 100
Sanders managed a career-high 41 PATs in coach Mike McDaniel's high-flying offense last season, while also converting 81 percent of his 32 field-goal attempts. He went an impressive 12 of 13 from the 40-49 range, but only converted 2 of 6 from 50+ yards out. Though he may not be more than a slightly above league-average kicker, Sanders' leg strength allows his number to be dialed from a wide range of positions on the field. The Dolphins' offense projects to be among one of the league's better scoring units, and if the team's additions on defense also work out, Sanders could find himself in position to close out games more often.
- Round 15, Pick 179 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 148
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
