In the fiery depths of the Payton34 FFL draft, Josh Allen’s Burner blazed a trail of success. With a draft grade of A+ and a projected finish of 1st, this team is set to scorch the competition. The 7th pick in the draft order didn't deter them from making some sizzling selections in the 14 rounds. Their best pick was Davante Adams, snatched up at 21, beating their ADP of 17. Talk about finding a hidden gem in the flames! However, not every pick was a winner, as they slightly singed their fingers with Javonte Williams at 63, who had an ADP of 76. Maybe they were hoping for a smoldering surprise, but it seems they got burned instead.
Josh Allen’s Burner didn't shy away from stacking the heat with three players from the same team. They're banking on the fiery synergy between Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Kansas City to ignite their success. With a projected record of 13-0-0 and a projected points total of 1455, this team is ready to leave their opponents in ashes. Even though they face the 8th toughest schedule out of 14 teams, it's clear that Josh Allen’s Burner is prepared to turn up the heat and scorch their way to victory. Watch out, because this team is about to set the league ablaze!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 40
A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 7 - 2022 Rank: 29
It doesn't diminish his legacy with Aaron Rodgers any in hindsight, but it's quite a testament to Adams' abilities that he moved from Green Bay to the Raiders and had almost no drop off in his production. Although it took an extra game in 2022 than 2021, Adams eclipsed 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the second year in a row last year. Adams even improved on the touchdown production from Green Bay to Las Vegas, scoring 14 times on his 100 catches last year compared to 11 times on 123 catches his final year with the Packers. Adams expressed dissatisfaction with the Raiders organization and its direction following the 2022 season, but that realization probably hit him at some point before then, yet it didn't stop Adams from producing at an elite level. What could perhaps harm Adams' production is the Raiders quarterback situation. Free agent pickup Jimmy Garoppolo should be good enough for Adams to thrive, but Garoppolo's surgically-repaired foot is such a concern that the Raiders wrote an out clause in Garoppolo's contract that allows them to cut him with no cap penalty. Brian Hoyer would be the likely backup if Garoppolo were to miss time, and it's difficult to feel totally secure with Adams if that's the type of quarterbacking he might have to deal with.
- Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 16
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 4, Pick 49 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 62
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 5, Pick 63 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 360
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 6, Pick 77 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 99
Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.
- Round 7, Pick 91 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 27 - 2022 Rank: 133
A third-round pick in 2022 out of Alabama, Robinson's rookie campaign started out in shocking fashion when he was shot during an attempted robbery. He made his debut in Week 5 and was quickly pushed into a prominent early-down role by former offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who seemed to blame Antonio Gibson for his own failures. While Robinson delivered decent volume numbers, his inability to shed tacklers and gain yards after contact kept him from separating himself from his competition and establishing himself as the Commanders' lead back of the future. Turner has since been replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and it's not clear whether Robinson, Gibson, or even 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez will emerge as the top option in Washington's backfield. If Robinson isn't in a workhorse role though, it's tough to see him making much of an impact due to his lack of passing-down work and ineffectiveness in short-yardage situations.
- Round 8, Pick 105 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 136
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 9, Pick 119 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 8
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
- Round 10, Pick 133 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 147 - 2022 Rank: 765
The Chiefs surprised most when they selected Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (55th overall), as the former SMU star was more so expected to be a Day 3 selection. The Chiefs might have been onto something, though, because Rice was a very productive player at SMU and his athletic testing at the combine was better than expected (4.51-second 40, 41-inch vertical at 6-foot-1, 204). Not just that, but Patrick Mahomes requested that the Chiefs select Rice at some point in the draft. In addition to his springy athleticism, Rice plays with a physicality that makes him a threat both at the catch point and as a ballcarrier after the catch. Fantasy drafters might be leery of Rice's rookie season after Skyy Moore disappointed as a second-round pick in 2022, but it's worth noting that Rice has a more versatile skill set than Moore. Whereas Moore can only realistically earn snaps in the slot, Rice can credibly compete for reps at any wide receiver position in the Chiefs offense.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 147 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 223
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.
- Round 12, Pick 161 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 195
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 13, Pick 175 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 738
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 14, Pick 189 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 137 - 2022 Rank: 275
Hurst signed a three-year contract with the Panthers in the offseason, joining his third team in three years and fourth NFL franchise overall. From a fantasy perspective, it is a favorable landing spot for a tight end who would only be a backup for some teams. The Panthers lack not only competition at Hurst's position but also talented pass catchers overall, as they traded away WR DJ Moore to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young first overall. While far from explosive, Hurst has enjoyed spurts of fantasy utility in which he drew a handful of targets per week, including last season in Cincinnati as the fourth option in a WR-heavy passing game. With fewer standout players to compete with in Carolina, he could even challenge his 2020 career high of 88 targets, which resulted in a 56-571-6 receiving line for the Falcons that year. Heading into 2023, snap competition is weak, to say the least, with fellow Panthers tight ends Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble having repeatedly proven themselves non-factors in the passing game.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
