In the Vince Lombardi Keeper League, Beloglavi's draft performance left much to be desired. With a draft grade of D-, it's safe to say that this team has some work to do. Projected to finish dead last in 12th place, Beloglavi's prospects for success are about as bright as a candle in a hurricane. Their projected record of 3-10-1 is less than inspiring, and with a projected point total of 1459, they'll be lucky to outscore a team of sleepy kittens.
Beloglavi's draft strategy was as questionable as a fashion trend from the 80s. Their best pick, Jonathan Taylor, was selected at 45, a solid 16 spots later than their ADP of 29. It seems like they were trying to be the trendsetters of the draft, but ended up looking more like the kid who wore socks with sandals. On the other hand, their worst pick, Dalvin Cook, was taken at 21, a whopping 53 spots ahead of their ADP of 74. It's almost as if they were trying to single-handedly prove that hindsight is 20/20. With three players on bye week 10, Beloglavi's chances of success are about as likely as finding a unicorn at a dog show.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 28
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 38
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 102
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 4, Pick 45 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 144
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 5, Pick 52 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 53 - 2022 Rank: 41
Sanders signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers in March, cashing in after a career year in 2022 which included 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 17 games for Philadelphia. He won't be playing in a top offense anymore, but with the Panthers, he'll make far more money and have a secure rushing workload. The Eagles had a variety of options at their disposal and would sometimes go away from Sanders in the game plan, which made his production inconsistent even in 2022. He'll likely average fewer yards per carry with the Panthers, but he may also get more overall touches after averaging between 13.5 and 16.4 per game in four seasons with the Eagles. Chuba Hubbard looms as a capable alternative, though he might get the bulk of his work on passing downs where Sanders is less useful. While that might come with the risk of getting phased out of the offense when the Panthers abandon the run, it's also possible Sanders gets more involved in the passing game (only 20 catches last year) on early downs.
- Round 6, Pick 69 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 188
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 7, Pick 76 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 288
The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.
- Round 8, Pick 93 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 766
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 9, Pick 100 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 313
Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.
- Round 10, Pick 117 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 14
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 11, Pick 124 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 63
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 12, Pick 141 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 223 - 2022 Rank: 305
It would be hasty to count Renfrow out after one bad season, especially since he was so solid in all of the three prior years. But his 2022 season could hardly have been more concerning. A concussion and oblique issue played a role, but for Renfrow to return just 36 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 50 targets in 10 games is the kind of dysfunction that could hint at a poor system fit. It's possible that Josh McDaniels just doesn't have much idea of how to use Renfrow, a fear that was made worse when the Raiders signed New England slot standout Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $33 million contract this offseason. Then the Raiders bizarrely targeted two more slot specialists -- former Chargers wideout DeAndre Carter in free agency and Cincinnati wideout Tre Tucker in the third round of the draft. Renfrow himself is on a two-year, $31.7 million extension signed before the 2022 season, so the Raiders are on the hook for a lot of cash either way. Even if it's not his first inclination, McDaniels has plenty of incentive to figure out how to use Renfrow more properly in 2023. It's just not clear if McDaniels is any closer to getting there.
- Round 13, Pick 148 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 159
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
- Round 14, Pick 165 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 170 - 2022 Rank: 745
The Texans selected Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the highly touted rookie out of Ohio State is expected to start right away over Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Stroud has all the physical tools to succeed out of the gate, but his processing ability was shaky in pre-draft testing, and he'll have to buck the trend of NFL underperformance for quarterbacks coming out of Ohio State. An even bigger issue for Stroud early on could be Houston's lack of playmakers. After posting an 85:12 TD: INT over the past two seasons in an Ohio State offense that included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stroud will helm a Houston offense without a single player that reached 600 receiving yards last season. His top weapons figure to be WRs Robert Woods and Nico Collins, along with TE Dalton Schultz, but Houston's offense will likely revolve around second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Perhaps the decently mobile Stroud can find some fantasy relevance by using his legs, but that wasn't a strong suit of his in college, as Stroud didn't post a single regular season rushing TD in his two years as the starter at Ohio State.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 172 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 204 - 2022 Rank: 105
The Bengals defense had a strong 2022, ranking eighth with 24 takeaways and sixth with only 19 points allowed per game. However, the team lost both starting safeties, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, during free agency in the offseason. As a result, they will have to rely on 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill and new signing Nick Scott to step up.Additionally, the Bengals have added second-round rookie CB DJ Turner to their secondary. The team's front seven at least looks strong again, which may aid the inexperienced secondary. And from a fantasy standpoint, it helps that the Bengals have an offense capable of providing large leads throughout the season.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
