In the WHAT?! Radio Football - XIII draft, the Pittsburgh Bombers soared to new heights, leaving their opponents in awe. With a draft grade of A+, they showed off their strategic prowess and left no stone unturned. Their projected record of 12-2-0 and 1st place finish have sent shockwaves through the league, leaving the other teams trembling in their cleats. Despite having the 2nd pick in the draft order, the Bombers managed to make every selection count, proving that they're a force to be reckoned with.
The Bombers' draft was a masterclass in finding hidden gems. Their best pick was Tyler Boyd, who was snatched up at 159, way below their ADP of 129. This steal of a selection is sure to pay dividends for the team. However, not every pick was a touchdown dance. The Bombers' worst pick was Javonte Williams, taken at 66, higher than their ADP of 75. But hey, even the best teams fumble occasionally. With their explosive draft performance, the Pittsburgh Bombers are ready to unleash a blitzkrieg of fantasy dominance upon the league.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 64
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 31 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 3, Pick 34 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 173
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 63 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 284
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 5, Pick 66 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 341
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 6, Pick 95 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 118
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
DEF - Round 7, Pick 98 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 155
In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.
- Round 8, Pick 127 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 187 - 2022 Rank: 231
Injuries could well end up being the story of Gallup's career when it's all said and done. A third-round pick in 2018, the Colorado State product topped 1,100 receiving yards in his second NFL season and appeared poised for a big run in an explosive offense, but Gallup hasn't sniffed that kind of production since as he and quarterback Dak Prescott have rarely been 100 percent healthy at the same time. An ACL tear that shut the wideout down in the second half of 2021 also seemed to hamper Gallup in 2022, and he didn't have the same ability to gain separation once he was back in action. The Cowboys hope a healthy offseason will allow him to return to form, but the team also hedged its bets by trading for Brandin Cooks to be the No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb. Gallup has contributed in the No. 3 role before, but with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible the Dallas passing game won't be able to support three receivers again to that extent.
- Round 9, Pick 130 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 294 - 2022 Rank: 177
Last year, Boswell only made 71.4 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ended his streak of at least 90 percent in each of the previous three years. However, it should be taken into account that he attempted only 28 field goals, 19 of which were from 40 yards or longer. He only made half of the 40-49 yard attempts, but impressively went 7-for-9 from 50 yards or more, following his 8-for-9 record from the previous year. It's of course worth noting that Boswell missed five games and was attached to a terrible offense. He'll likely be healthier this year, but improvement from the Pittsburgh offense appears closer to a 50/50 proposition, largely depending on the progress of second-year QB Kenny Pickett.
- Round 10, Pick 159 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 151
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 11, Pick 162 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 194
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
- Round 12, Pick 191 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 206
It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.
- Round 13, Pick 194 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 123 - 2022 Rank: 247
When healthy, Edwards has been a dependable player for Baltimore, providing a reliable source of power running off the bench and making several starts when J.K. Dobbins couldn't play. While limited to just nine games last season after an ACL tear the year before, Edwards once again managed to average 5.0 yards per carry -- a mark he's never failed to reach. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken may create some challenges and puts the streak in serious jeopardy. Former OC Greg Roman's heavy-package runs suited Edwards well, allowing him to focus on running between the tackles while defenses had to account for the threat of QB Lamar Jackson running around the end. Monken's expected emphasis on the passing game likely will come with fewer option plays, which means Edwards must demonstrate competence as a blocker and/or pass catcher to earn significant playing time. If the Ravens run less, as anticipated, Dobbins' superiority in these areas could result in fewer snaps for Edwards, especially since he is in the final year of his contract following a pay cut.
- Round 14, Pick 223 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 170 - 2022 Rank: -
The Texans selected Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the highly touted rookie out of Ohio State is expected to start right away over Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Stroud has all the physical tools to succeed out of the gate, but his processing ability was shaky in pre-draft testing, and he'll have to buck the trend of NFL underperformance for quarterbacks coming out of Ohio State. An even bigger issue for Stroud early on could be Houston's lack of playmakers. After posting an 85:12 TD: INT over the past two seasons in an Ohio State offense that included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stroud will helm a Houston offense without a single player that reached 600 receiving yards last season. His top weapons figure to be WRs Robert Woods and Nico Collins, along with TE Dalton Schultz, but Houston's offense will likely revolve around second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Perhaps the decently mobile Stroud can find some fantasy relevance by using his legs, but that wasn't a strong suit of his in college, as Stroud didn't post a single regular season rushing TD in his two years as the starter at Ohio State.
- Round 15, Pick 226 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 223 - 2022 Rank: 293
It would be hasty to count Renfrow out after one bad season, especially since he was so solid in all of the three prior years. But his 2022 season could hardly have been more concerning. A concussion and oblique issue played a role, but for Renfrow to return just 36 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 50 targets in 10 games is the kind of dysfunction that could hint at a poor system fit. It's possible that Josh McDaniels just doesn't have much idea of how to use Renfrow, a fear that was made worse when the Raiders signed New England slot standout Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $33 million contract this offseason. Then the Raiders bizarrely targeted two more slot specialists -- former Chargers wideout DeAndre Carter in free agency and Cincinnati wideout Tre Tucker in the third round of the draft. Renfrow himself is on a two-year, $31.7 million extension signed before the 2022 season, so the Raiders are on the hook for a lot of cash either way. Even if it's not his first inclination, McDaniels has plenty of incentive to figure out how to use Renfrow more properly in 2023. It's just not clear if McDaniels is any closer to getting there.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
