In a draft that left other teams green with envy, K Bizzle's Team managed to secure an impressive A+ draft grade. Despite picking 10th in the draft order, they navigated their way through 23 rounds with the grace of a gazelle. With a projected record of 14-0-0, it seems like K Bizzle's Team is set to dominate the league. Their projected points of 3452.73 are enough to make any opponent tremble in their boots. However, it's not all smooth sailing for K Bizzle's Team, as they face the 10th toughest schedule out of the 12 teams. But hey, who needs an easy road to victory when you have an A+ draft grade and a projected 1st place finish?
While every pick made by K Bizzle's Team was solid, there were a couple that stood out from the rest. Their best pick was snagging T.J. Hockenson at 63, well below their ADP of 44. Talk about a steal! On the other hand, their worst pick was reaching for Isiah Pacheco at 39, who had an ADP of 75. Oops! But hey, even the best teams make a few blunders along the way. With an A+ draft grade and a projected 1st place finish, K Bizzle's Team is poised to take the league by storm. Watch out, folks, because K Bizzle's Team is ready to unleash their fantasy prowess!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 44
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 34
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 3, Pick 34 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 234
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 39 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 66
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 5, Pick 58 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 90
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
- Round 6, Pick 63 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 85
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 7, Pick 82 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 74
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 8, Pick 87 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 635
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 9, Pick 106 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 53
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 10, Pick 111 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 49
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 11, Pick 130 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1139 - 2022 Rank: 98
Bolton was selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft and has quickly proven to be a force in the middle of the defense. As a rookie, he registered 112 tackles as a part of a rotation amongst the linebacker corps. In his second campaign, Bolton topped 1,000 snaps and increased his production to a whopping 180 tackles (108 solo). As would be expected, his primary assignment is to sit in the middle of the field, leaving him with limited sack upside. On the other hand, the next step in Bolton's career could be his work in coverage, as he picked off two passes in 2022 and also logged three passes deflected. Overall, he should rank among the most sought-after IDP options.
- Round 12, Pick 135 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1282 - 2022 Rank: 133
Entering his ninth NFL season, Mosley has emerged as one of the most consistent tacklers in the league, topping 100 stops on six occasions. However, he's particularly blossomed under coach Robert Saleh in the last two years, posting his two highest tackle-total seasons and totaling 326 stops. Even at a relatively advanced age of 31, Mosley has recently shown the ability to improve his skills. He tallied seven passes defensed in 2022, his highest mark since the 2017 season. Given the wear and tear on his body, there will be some risk that Mosley will either lose a step or lose out on playing time due to injury in 2023 and beyond. However, it's hard to argue with his track record until he shows tangible signs of slowing down.
- Round 13, Pick 154 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 503 - 2022 Rank: 218
Injuries continue to be an issue for James, who played only 14 games and 799 defensive snaps in 2022. However, when he's on the field there are few safeties who can match the production of the 17th overall pick in 2018. He's topped 100 tackles on three occasions, but more importantly, he has a knack for the big play. In addition to breaking up 13 passes in his rookie year, James has combined to tally 11 such plays in the last two years. He's also picked off four passes in that span while forcing five fumbles. With the addition of Erick Hendricks and the ongoing presence of Joey Bosa, the Chargers could prove to be a menace to opposing quarterbacks in 2023, but James' health will play a key role in that possibility.
- Round 14, Pick 159 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1122 - 2022 Rank: 135
After showing promise in his first two seasons in the NFL, Okereke emerged as a top inside linebacker across the second half of his rookie contract. Between 2021 and 2022 combined, he piled up 283 tackles for the Colts and was available for all 34 games. The third-round pick out of Stanford turned that production into a four-year, $40 million contract from the Giants this offseason. He'll enjoy working behind Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence, both of whom should help occupy blockers and keep Okereke clean to make plays. Okereke will immediately be counted upon as a leader in the middle of coordinator Don Martindale's scheme, as both of the Giants' top two tacklers from 2022 (Julian Love and Jaylon Smith) departed in free agency.
- Round 15, Pick 178 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1143 - 2022 Rank: 195
Warner is entering his sixth season in the NFL and has been the picture of consistency. He's been available for either 16 or 17 games in every campaign, benefitting from playing a major role in an excellent defense but also getting some rest due to the excellent depth the team boasts. Warner has no fewer than 118 tackles in a given season and has at least 79 solo tackles in all five of his professional campaigns. If there's a downside to his game, it's a lack of production as a pass rusher, as he has only 6.5 career sacks. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with his work in coverage as he has 35 passes defended and four picks to his ledger. All told, he's an extremely reliable fantasy option due to both his skill and role in a prolific defense.
- Round 16, Pick 183 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 509 - 2022 Rank: 246
Baker rivals and perhaps exceeds Minkah Fitzpatrick as one of the most exciting defensive playmakers in the league. He's picked off seven passes across his last three seasons combined and has forced at least one fumble in all but one of his campaigns in the NFL. That's all true without discussing his more routine plays, as Baker has also racked up triple-digit tackles four times in the last five years. While his performance on the field is covered, the 27-year-old's future in Arizona is a bit unclear. As could be expected based on the production laid out above, Baker expects to be compensated. Presumably, after extension talks didn't go as hoped, he requested a trade this offseason. Meanwhile, new Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon appears to be preparing for the safety's departure by shifting Isaiah Simmons to the secondary. That could become a problem for Baker's role if he isn't moved, but it would be foolish for any team not to take full advantage of his talent.
- Round 17, Pick 202 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 176 - 2022 Rank: 25
There's some concern about the foot that Garoppolo injured in December and underwent surgical repair in March. That concern led the Raiders to word Garoppolo's three-year, $72.75 million contract such that he can be cut with no cap penalty unless he passes a physical at some unspecified point. The Raiders presumably plan on Garoppolo passing said physical, or else they (A) wouldn't have bothered pursuing him with such a high-dollar contract and (B) they would have done something more about the quarterback position otherwise than just signing Brian Hoyer and spending a fourth-round pick on Aidan Hutchinson. If Garoppolo is toast then so is the Raiders offense, and coach Josh McDaniels certainly doesn't want that, especially after such a disastrous 2022 season. If Garoppolo can stay healthy then he should be a stabilizing presence for the Raiders as they move on from Derek Carr, who did not take well to McDaniels' scheme. Garoppolo's familiarity with McDaniels from their New England days should hopefully make Garoppolo a better fit in 2023 than Carr was in 2022. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow to throw to, it would seem like Garoppolo has the necessary help to move the ball as long as that foot cooperates.
- Round 18, Pick 207 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 255 - 2022 Rank: 420
It remains to be seen how new coach Sean Payton assesses the Denver tight end room, but the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett was certainly a huge fan of Dulcich. Despite missing a handful of OTAs with what was initially described as a core injury and then almost all of training camp with a nagging hamstring issue, Hackett made Dulcich a foundational piece of the team offense, handing Dulcich not just the starting role but a heavy target rate immediately upon his return in Week 6, despite never actually being healthy enough to compete for the job in practice. With minimal blocking assignments, Dulcich was allowed to function basically like Denver's WR3 alongside Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Dulcich is a liability as a blocker and is both smaller and much slower than Albert Okwuegbunam, but it's possible that Dulcich is good enough as a route runner that it doesn't matter. In addition to Okwuegbunam, Dulcich needs to hold off former Saints tight end Adam Trautman, who's a superior blocker to both Dulcich and Okwuegbunam.
- Round 19, Pick 226 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: 1503
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
- Round 20, Pick 231 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1781 - 2022 Rank: 311
- Round 21, Pick 250 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 143
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 22, Pick 255 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 217 - 2022 Rank: 122
After playing only five games in his first season with Washington in 2021, Samuel stayed healthy last year and posted solid numbers as the No. 3 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Samuel saw significant usage on the ground to supplement his 64 catches, the second-highest total of his career, but his ceiling would appear to be firmly capped given his role in a middle-of-the-pack offense. There are reasons to think the unit as a whole could take a big step forward in 2023, however. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell takes the reins under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who brings a Super Bowl-winning scheme with him from Kansas City. Barring an injury to McLaurin or Dotson though, it's hard to see a path by which Samuel would get featured prominently.
- Round 23, Pick 274 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1851 - 2022 Rank: 293
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
