In the Endzone Gladiators League, the Ale86 Bears showed off their drafting prowess, earning an impressive A+ grade. With the 9th pick in the draft order, they navigated through 17 rounds with finesse, leaving their opponents in awe. The Bears' projected record of 12-2-0 has the league shaking in their cleats, as they are poised to claim the top spot.
While the Bears' schedule may present some challenges, ranking as the 8th toughest out of 12 teams, they have a secret weapon up their sleeve. With the best pick of the draft, snagging Mike Williams at 81 when their ADP was 80, the Bears have a player who is set to exceed expectations. However, not every pick was a touchdown dance. The Bears' worst pick came at 93, where they selected Sam LaPorta despite an ADP of 131. Let's hope this pick doesn't turn into a fumble for the Bears.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 30
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 26
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 3, Pick 33 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 98
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 4, Pick 45 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 372
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
DEF - Round 5, Pick 57 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 36
The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.
- Round 6, Pick 69 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2511 - 2022 Rank: 132
McCloud's main role on the 49ers is as a kick returner, but he proved a useful took in coach Kyle Shanahan's playbook as he had 18 touches for 321 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in 17 games last season. McCloud will continue to return kicks and serve as the No. 4 wide receiver. A injury could give him a bigger role, but the 49ers have so many weapons that even in that scenario he might not get consistent targets.
- Round 7, Pick 81 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 158
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 8, Pick 93 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: -
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 9, Pick 105 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 7
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 10, Pick 117 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 352 - 2022 Rank: -
Mayer probably shouldn't have fallen to the Raiders at the 35th pick. As much as it was fair for NFL teams to find some concern in his athletic testing (4.7-second 40 at 249 pounds), it was never a good basis for letting Mayer fall out of the first round. If Mayer had run any faster, he would have been worth a top-15 pick - his barely disappointing combine was a basis to have Mayer fall out of the top-15, not out of the first round. Dalton Kincaid wasn't nearly as good of a collegiate tight end as Mayer, and Sam LaPorta probably was worse too, yet both players went ahead of Mayer. Mayer will likely be a steal for the Raiders as a result - think a better version of Zach Ertz - so the question of when Mayer breaks out as a fantasy asset might be pending how soon he can overtake the veteran Austin Hooper. Mayer is a good bet to skip the rookie-year struggles that most tight ends face (Mayer caught 42 passes as a true freshman at Notre Dame), but Hooper could be just enough of an obstacle to delay Mayer's full arrival as a fantasy option by a year.
- Round 11, Pick 129 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 164
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 12, Pick 141 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 157 - 2022 Rank: 137
The Rams had a terrible offensive line last year, and their running game was stuck in neutral. As a result, Stafford paid the price with 29 sacks in 11 games. Last year, the team added Allen Robinson in free agency, but either the team didn't properly use him, or Robinson was on the downside of his career. So with very little going his way, Stafford was consistently getting hit, which kept him unable to put up consistent fantasy points. Stafford's 10:8 TD:INT ratio was his worst since 2012. And due to the constant pressure, his 6.9 yards per attempt was significantly lower than any of his last three seasons. Although Stafford had at least 240 passing yards in each of his first six games, he failed to crack 190 in any of his last three. He then suffered a neck injury and was shut down for the season. Going into 2023, Stafford may see an improvement from the offensive line, as a number of starters will return from injuries, and the Rams added guard Steve Avila in the second round of the draft. Coach Sean McVay will have had time to consider different ways for Stafford to attack defenses while hopefully getting the ball out of his hands quicker to keep him healthy. Still, the Rams seem a bit of a rebuilding mess. Stafford shouldn't be considered more than a backup in typical fantasy leagues.
- Round 13, Pick 153 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2458 - 2022 Rank: 376
- Round 14, Pick 165 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 52 - 2022 Rank: 242
Ford will enter training camp as Nick Chubb's backup after the Browns opted against re-signing both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson. A fifth-round pick last year, Ford was limited mainly to kick returns as a rookie. However, in 2021 he had an impressive final collegiate season at Cincinnati with 20 touchdowns and more than 1,500 scrimmage yards. Prior to that, Ford played ahead of eventual third-round pick Brian Robinson at Alabama. Ford has average size for an NFL RB at 5-10, 210, and he was clocked at 4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash last spring. The Browns seem to be believers, with 2021 sixth-round pick Demetric Felton representing Ford's most serious competition for playing time behind Chubb unless the team signs a noteworthy veteran over the summer.
- Round 15, Pick 177 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2337 - 2022 Rank: 162
Agnew's a key contributor on special teams, but his role in Jacksonville's offense will likely remain limited to gadget plays. The Jaguars let Marvin Jones walk but will be replacing him with Calvin Ridley, leaving Agnew as the team's WR4 at best behind Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Agnew had 23 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets last season while adding 86 rushing yards on 12 attempts. His career high in scrimmage yards is 340, and Agnew's unlikely to see a drastic change in role at age 28. Agnew averaged 26.0 yards per kick return and 8.2 yards per punt return last season. He has four punt return TDs and two kickoff return TDs in his six-year NFL career.
DEF - Round 16, Pick 189 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 197 - 2022 Rank: 75
Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in points allowed (371) last year. The Packers had playmakers in the secondary that helped them finish fifth in the league with 17 interceptions. But in terms of pass rush, they recorded just 34 sacks, the sixth-fewest in the league. As has been the case the last few years, the Packers project to be a terrible run defense. They don't have a single run defender who is considered a plus option. The pass defense continues to be one of the better ones in the league, though. Not only is the cornerback group strong, led by Jaire Alexander, but safety Rudy Ford as well as the LBs are outstanding. Rashan Gary is easily their best pass rusher, and if Lukas Van Ness is able to pressure consistently, they'd have great bookends. On paper, this should be an average defense, but they're not dominant in any one area. As a result, this will likely be a middling and uninspiring fantasy unit.
- Round 17, Pick 201 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 130
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
