In a draft that would make Tom Brady proud, the Brady Bunch showed off their skills and earned themselves an impressive A+ draft grade. With the 4th pick in the draft order, they strategically selected their players over 16 rounds, leaving their opponents green with envy. The Brady Bunch's projected record of 10-4-0 and projected finish in 2nd place has the rest of the league quaking in their cleats. They are set to score a whopping 2198.98 points, making it rain touchdowns on the field.
While the Brady Bunch may have faced some tough competition with the 7th toughest schedule difficulty, they are ready to tackle any challenge that comes their way. Despite having 6 players on bye week 7, they have assembled a formidable team that is sure to dominate the fantasy football world. Their best pick of the draft was Joe Mixon, snatched up at 44 when their ADP was 32, proving that the Brady Bunch has an eye for talent. However, not every pick was a touchdown, as their worst pick of the draft was Mike Williams, taken at 64 when their ADP was 80. But hey, even the Brady Bunch fumbles every now and then. With three players drafted from the same team, the Brady Bunch is ready to show the league that they are the ultimate fantasy football dream team.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 57
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 17 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 19
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 3, Pick 24 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 36
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 11
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 5, Pick 44 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 55
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 6, Pick 57 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 261
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 7, Pick 64 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 133
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 8, Pick 77 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 47
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 9, Pick 84 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 95
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 10, Pick 97 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: -
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 11, Pick 104 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 183
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 12, Pick 117 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 165
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 13, Pick 124 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 302
The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.
- Round 14, Pick 137 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 9
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 144 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 64
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 16, Pick 157 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 242
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
