In the Football Garbage Time Staff league, the Urban Sports Scene team had high hopes going into the draft, but unfortunately, their performance left much to be desired. With a draft grade of F and a projected finish of 11th, it seems like this team is destined for a season of disappointment. Their projected record of 2-12-0 doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. It's safe to say that the Urban Sports Scene team will be providing plenty of laughs for the rest of the league.
While there were a few bright spots in their draft, such as snagging Dallas Goedert at 68 when his ADP was 57, the team's worst pick of Geno Smith at 92 (ADP 117) raised some eyebrows. But perhaps the most puzzling aspect of their draft strategy was the decision to draft a whopping seven players from the same team. With Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, Washington, Sam Howell, Cole Turner, Joey Slye, and Curtis Samuel all donning the same jersey, it's clear that the Urban Sports Scene team is going all-in on a single team. Let's hope that team performs well, otherwise, this draft strategy might come back to haunt them.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 20
Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.
- Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 35
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 33
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 49
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 5, Pick 53 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 54
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 6, Pick 68 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 168
Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.
- Round 7, Pick 77 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 32
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 8, Pick 92 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 116 - 2022 Rank: 6
After throwing 34 touchdowns in 45 career games, Smith threw 30 touchdown passes last year. Before throwing for 4,282 yards last year, his best prior season was his 2013 rookie season when he threw for 3,046. He was an incredible success story after being written off as a fantasy option, and he didn't even win the Seahawks starting job until the last game of the preseason. For most of last season, Smith was very consistent. He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of 11 games between Weeks 3 and 14. However, Smith ended the season slowly. He threw exactly one touchdown pass in three of his last four games while also throwing for 215 or fewer yards in each of his last three games. There's always concern about paying up for a career year in fantasy football, and with Smith's career year coming at age 31, it raises a lot of red flags. However, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense requires a strong processor at quarterback, and Smith has always been that. In addition, he has excellent wide receiver weapons along with a good running game. Seattle also addressed their offensive line last season, so that it was no longer a liability. Overall, Smith is definitely in position to succeed with another strong season. It's also possible the stars aligned perfectly and his great prior season may see him regress back to career form. Since he is typically being selected outside the top quarterback options in fantasy drafts, there isn't a lot of risk in selecting him.
- Round 9, Pick 101 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 27 - 2022 Rank: 182
A third-round pick in 2022 out of Alabama, Robinson's rookie campaign started out in shocking fashion when he was shot during an attempted robbery. He made his debut in Week 5 and was quickly pushed into a prominent early-down role by former offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who seemed to blame Antonio Gibson for his own failures. While Robinson delivered decent volume numbers, his inability to shed tacklers and gain yards after contact kept him from separating himself from his competition and establishing himself as the Commanders' lead back of the future. Turner has since been replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and it's not clear whether Robinson, Gibson, or even 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez will emerge as the top option in Washington's backfield. If Robinson isn't in a workhorse role though, it's tough to see him making much of an impact due to his lack of passing-down work and ineffectiveness in short-yardage situations.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 116 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 59
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 125 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 154
The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.
- Round 12, Pick 140 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 161 - 2022 Rank: 425
Howell made only one start last year as a rookie, and that came in Week 18, but the North Carolina product appears poised to begin 2023 as the starting quarterback for Washington. The team cleared the way for the 2022 fifth-round pick to take over by releasing Carson Wentz and letting Taylor Heinicke walk in free agency. Howell has the arm talent to succeed in the NFL, but he lacks game-changing mobility and has to prove he can diagnose coverage quickly enough to take full advantage of a solid group of wideouts led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Commanders brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, and the former Kansas City offensive coordinator will likely focus on setting Howell up for quick strikes rather than leave him hanging in the pocket behind what was one of the league's poorer offensive lines in 2022. If Howell stumbles badly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but the younger QB will get every chance to show he can solve the franchise's long-running woes at the position.
- Round 13, Pick 149 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 256
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 14, Pick 164 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 2055 - 2022 Rank: 543
- Round 15, Pick 173 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1919 - 2022 Rank: 170
After bouncing through three different teams in 2021, Slye found a home in Washington last year and posted solid efficiency numbers over 17 games, although his opportunities were limited due to a lackluster offense that finished in the bottom 10 in scoring. The 27-year-old Slye is a career 17-for-27 from beyond 50 yards, including 4-for-6 in 2022, so improvements in the offense could allow him to become a more reliable fantasy option. If second-year quarterback Sam Howell can stabilize that position, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can bring some Kansas City magic with him, Slye should see more than last year's 30 field-goal attempts.
- Round 16, Pick 188 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 240
Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 17, Pick 197 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 217 - 2022 Rank: 104
After playing only five games in his first season with Washington in 2021, Samuel stayed healthy last year and posted solid numbers as the No. 3 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Samuel saw significant usage on the ground to supplement his 64 catches, the second-highest total of his career, but his ceiling would appear to be firmly capped given his role in a middle-of-the-pack offense. There are reasons to think the unit as a whole could take a big step forward in 2023, however. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell takes the reins under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who brings a Super Bowl-winning scheme with him from Kansas City. Barring an injury to McLaurin or Dotson though, it's hard to see a path by which Samuel would get featured prominently.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
