In a draft that had other teams feeling like sitting ducks, Snipe Hunter swooped in and took the league by storm. With a flawless A+ draft grade, this team is set to dominate the competition and leave them quacking in their wake. Projected to finish in first place with a record of 11-3-0, Snipe Hunter is ready to make a splash in the Texas Swimming league.
Snipe Hunter's strategic prowess was on full display, starting with their first overall pick in the draft order. They didn't miss a beat and selected the talented Jonathan Taylor at 85, a steal considering their ADP of 29. However, even the best hunters can have an off day, as evidenced by their worst pick of Tua Tagovailoa at 28, who had an ADP of 96. But with the rest of their roster packed with potential, Snipe Hunter is sure to overcome this minor hiccup and soar to victory. Watch out, opponents, because Snipe Hunter is ready to take aim and hit the bullseye!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 55
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 28 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 16
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 195
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 4, Pick 56 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 104
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 5, Pick 57 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 88
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 6, Pick 84 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 164
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 7, Pick 85 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 130
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 8, Pick 112 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 105
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 9, Pick 113 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 258 - 2022 Rank: 377
Hardman couldn't take advantage of Tyreek Hill's departure in his fourth season with the Chiefs last year, averaging less than 40 yards per game in the eight games he played. He'll once again get the advantage of playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in New York, though Aaron Rodger's substandard 2022 campaign could be reason for tampering expectations. The Jets' receiving corps is less crowded behind No. 1 Garrett Wilson after Corey Davis retired in August. Hardman is the only real speedster of the group, and his skillset doesn't significantly overlap with Allen Lazard, a more big-bodied chain mover. Tthe 25-year-old Hardman could well be a regular fixture in three-wide sets. The argument for Hardman as a post-hype sleeper isn't difficult, as long as he's indeed able to get healthy without setbacks, but fantasy may be fatigued enough for him to fall to the last round of drafts.
- Round 10, Pick 140 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 174
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 11, Pick 141 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 685
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 168 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 21
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 13, Pick 169 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 420
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 14, Pick 196 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1130 - 2022 Rank: 143
Wagner suited up for a team other than the Seahawks for the first time in 2022, as he signed with the division-rival Rams. He has managed at least 100 tackles in each of his 11 seasons as a pro and has proven he can remain productive as he heads into the back end of his career. In fact, he showed a new facet to his game, racking up a career-high six sacks with Los Angeles. Despite things going well away from Seattle on a personal level, Wagner returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal this offseason. He'll certainly be locked into a starting role, and with Jordyn Brooks on the mend from an ACL tear, Wagner should have the chance to lead the team in tackles.
- Round 15, Pick 197 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 154
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 16, Pick 224 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2337 - 2022 Rank: 257
Agnew's a key contributor on special teams, but his role in Jacksonville's offense will likely remain limited to gadget plays. The Jaguars let Marvin Jones walk but will be replacing him with Calvin Ridley, leaving Agnew as the team's WR4 at best behind Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Agnew had 23 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets last season while adding 86 rushing yards on 12 attempts. His career high in scrimmage yards is 340, and Agnew's unlikely to see a drastic change in role at age 28. Agnew averaged 26.0 yards per kick return and 8.2 yards per punt return last season. He has four punt return TDs and two kickoff return TDs in his six-year NFL career.
- Round 17, Pick 225 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1184 - 2022 Rank: 159
Singleton has quickly gone from an undrafted free agent to a key cog in the Broncos' defense. The 2022 season marked his first with Denver, but he didn't miss a beat after moving on from the Eagles to rack up a career-high 163 tackles. It was his third campaign with at least 100 tackles. More specifically, Singleton recorded double-digit tackle totals in seven games last season, while also making at least 20 stops in two games. He signed a three-year deal worth up to $18 million with the Broncos in March, pushing him to the center of the team's defensive goals. It also means that Singleton is in a position to continue to make plays on a defense that could be one of the league's strongest units.
- Round 18, Pick 252 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 232 - 2022 Rank: 136
Foreman is one of the true success stories of a player making it back from an Achilles injury. Once Christian McCaffrey was traded away by the Panthers last year, Foreman stepped into a large role. His 203 carries was the first big workload he had in his career. And he responded very well by posting a career-high 4.5 yards per carry. Despite having just a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was 76th percentile in yards after contact. But as good as some of his numbers looked, he was inconsistent. He had five games with at least 113 rushing yards. Conversely, he was held to fewer than 25 yards four times. And his performances weren't based on the level of competition. He had some excellent games against strong defenses while having some poor performances against weaker defenses. Now with Chicago, Foreman should bring the thunder to Khalil Herbert's lighting to form a one-two punch in the backfield. Foreman should profile as the primary goal-line back, though Justin Fields is sure to be a factor at the goal. Even though the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round, Foreman is likely a better RB at this stage, and Johnson may not be a major threat to Foreman's role. In his current situation, Foreman has RB2 or flex value in drafts.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
