In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, Chaka Khan managed to secure a disappointing D+ grade. With a projected record of 6-8-0, it seems like this team is destined for mediocrity. The draft order didn't do them any favors either, as they were stuck with the 3rd pick. Despite having 16 rounds to make their mark, Chaka Khan's performance fell flat.
While there were a few bright spots, such as snagging Christian Watson at 98 when their ADP was 78, the team's worst pick was a head-scratcher. They reached for Garrett Wilson at 18, even though their ADP was 21. It's clear that Chaka Khan is willing to take risks, but it remains to be seen if those risks will pay off. With the 2nd toughest schedule in the league and two players on bye week 9, it's going to be an uphill battle for this team. Let's hope Chaka Khan can hit the right notes on the field, because their draft performance certainly didn't impress.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 15
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 116
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 3, Pick 23 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 43
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: 753
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 5, Pick 43 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 54
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 6, Pick 58 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 6
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 7, Pick 63 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 261
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 78 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 69
The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.
- Round 9, Pick 83 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 90
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 10, Pick 98 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 143
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 11, Pick 103 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 102 - 2022 Rank: 194
Brown is at his best when he's used as a downfield target, however he had a career low 6.6 yards per target and 10.6 yards per reception with the Cardinals last year. It didn't help that Kyler Murray missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but regardless, this was far from a big play offense last year. There's also concern that Murray may not be ready to start the season due to his injury. Brown did miss Weeks 7 through 11 with an injury last year, but he had been coming on just before then. He posted at least 68 yards in each of the five games leading up to week 11. And during that stretch, he averaged 11.6 targets with no fewer than nine in any game. but once he returned, and specially due to the quarterback play, he never surpassed 61 yards the rest of the way. If Murray was going to be a full go for the season, Brown's fantasy value would be much higher. but if Murray misses time, the drop off in quarterback play is so significant that it hurts Brown's fantasy value.
- Round 12, Pick 118 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 29
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 13, Pick 123 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 244
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 14, Pick 138 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 23
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 143 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 144 - 2022 Rank: 68
Last season, the Ravens performed impressively and ranked third, fifth, and ninth in points allowed per game, sacks and takeaways, respectively. The addition of LB Roquan Smith helped a great deal, and fellow linebacker Patrick Queen stepped up his own performance after the mid-season trade for Smith. However, the Ravens suffered a setback this offseason with the loss of DE Calais Campbell to the Falcons, while OLB Justin Houston, who posted 9.5 sacks last season, has not been signed yet. As a result, it's possible that the Ravens D/ST may not perform at the same level this season, sporting major question marks at cornerback and along the defensive line.
- Round 16, Pick 158 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 296 - 2022 Rank: 109
Gay signed a record-setting four-year, $22.5 million contract with the Colts in the offseason. Even if the pressure of signing the biggest free agent deal for a kicker in NFL history doesn't get to Gay, his volume figures to be depressed on a run-first offense led by a rookie QB in Anthony Richardson, especially since the Colts averaged just 17.0 PPG with veteran Matt Ryan under center in 2022. Gay made 74 of 80 field-goal attempts with the Rams over the previous three seasons, including 12 of 15 from 50-plus yards, so he figures to remain reliable when given opportunities.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
