In the HRC Katoosh 💣🧨👊🏼 league, the Ala Wai Limu Lab made quite a splash with their draft performance. Despite picking 3rd in the draft order, they managed to secure a solid B+ draft grade. With a projected record of 12-3-0, they are poised to make a strong push for the playoffs. Their projected finish of 3rd place is nothing to scoff at, especially in a league with 12 teams. It seems like the Ala Wai Limu Lab has some tricks up their sleeves.
The Ala Wai Limu Lab's draft strategy was evident with their 8 wide receiver picks, surpassing the league average of 5.5. They clearly believe in the power of the passing game and are ready to dominate the airwaves. Their best pick was snagging Lamar Jackson at 51, well below his average draft position of 37. This steal is set to pay off big time. However, not every pick was a winner, as they reached for Jahan Dotson at 70, who had an average draft position of 99. Oops! But perhaps the most intriguing aspect of their draft was the selection of 4 players from the same team. It's like they're trying to create their own mini dream team within the Ala Wai Limu Lab. Will this bold move pay off or will it lead to a chemistry overload? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: the Ala Wai Limu Lab is ready to make some waves in the HRC Katoosh league!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 1
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 22 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 19
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 15
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 4, Pick 46 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 34
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 5, Pick 51 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 43
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 6, Pick 70 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 95
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 7, Pick 75 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 36
A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.
- Round 8, Pick 94 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 80 - 2022 Rank: 80
After the Vikings cut ties with Adam Thielen, they were in need of a clear No. 2 receiver. They didn't waste time in addressing that need, using the 23rd pick in this year's draft to select Addison. In college, he showed the ability to run effective routes at all levels of the field. He also showed excellent separation skills. But his game wasn't without questions. The 175-pound receiver seemed to lack some physicality, which could be an issue in the NFL. Also, quite a bit of his college production came on screen passes, and that may be difficult to duplicate at the next level. Finally, he disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran a 55th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and his explosiveness testing came in at the 50th percentile. Regardless, he is expected to start across from Justin Jefferson this season. He'll also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who has shown the ability to lead a productive passing attack. Despite some knocks on his profile as he enters the pros, volume and circumstance could propel Addison to a productive rookie campaign.
- Round 9, Pick 99 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1210 - 2022 Rank: 1210
Smith was dealt by the Bears just before the trade deadline last season after it became clear the sides wouldn't agree to terms on a long-term extension. He didn't take much time to acclimate to his new surroundings in Baltimore, as he managed 94 tackles, two sacks, three passes defended, and an interception across 10 games. Smith was rewarded with a five-year, $100 million contract extension in January, and will now be the long-term centerpiece of the Ravens' defense. After an offseason to learn the defense, Smith will officially become the leader of the unit and wear the green dot. While others around the league will have more gaudy sack totals, Smith has topped 160 tackles in consecutive seasons. We should expect more of the same in 2023, which makes him among the safest IDP selections available.
- Round 10, Pick 118 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 503 - 2022 Rank: 503
Injuries continue to be an issue for James, who played only 14 games and 799 defensive snaps in 2022. However, when he's on the field there are few safeties who can match the production of the 17th overall pick in 2018. He's topped 100 tackles on three occasions, but more importantly, he has a knack for the big play. In addition to breaking up 13 passes in his rookie year, James has combined to tally 11 such plays in the last two years. He's also picked off four passes in that span while forcing five fumbles. With the addition of Erick Hendricks and the ongoing presence of Joey Bosa, the Chargers could prove to be a menace to opposing quarterbacks in 2023, but James' health will play a key role in that possibility.
- Round 11, Pick 123 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: 60
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 12, Pick 142 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1203 - 2022 Rank: 1203
Jewell was limited to only two games in 2021 due to a torn pectoral, and he appeared to be in for another injury-marred season in 2022. He managed to suit up for only three of Denver's first seven games due to calf and knee injuries. However, he showed exactly what he's capable of when healthy across the second half of the campaign by racking up double-digit tackles across seven of his final nine matchups. All told, he managed a career-high 128 stops and surpassed the century mark for the second time in his career. Jewell is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and he'll be locked into a starting inside linebacker along fellow prolific tackler Alex Singleton. Assuming health is on his side, Jewell is a decent bet to top 150 tackles to go along with some sacks, pass breakups, and forced fumbles.
- Round 13, Pick 147 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 536 - 2022 Rank: 536
- Round 14, Pick 166 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 84
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 15, Pick 171 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 140
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 16, Pick 190 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1668 - 2022 Rank: 1668
- Round 17, Pick 195 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 114 - 2022 Rank: 114
Typically when each season ends, Cousins puts up very good seasonal numbers. It's the week-to-week ride that can be very problematic for fantasy managers. He threw for the second-most yardage of his career last year, but don't forget we're in a 17-game season these days, so those numbers can be skewed a bit. Cousins threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was his highest total in a season to go along with 29 touchdowns. And although he's great for having explosive games, Cousins had three games with at least three touchdown passes, he often goes flat. He had eight games in which he threw zero or one touchdown. Cousins also had three games in which he failed to surpass 175 passing yards. Still not enough? He had four games with multiple interceptions. Cousins' ceiling games make him an excellent option in best ball leagues. But in redraft leagues, the implosion games are often unpredictable, and that makes him better as a QB2 in leagues that start a single quarterback. He's obviously a great option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
- Round 18, Pick 214 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 145
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 19, Pick 219 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 112
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 20, Pick 238 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 236 - 2022 Rank: 236
After averaging 21 made field goals between 2019-2021, the Seahawks offense finally had a successful year. As a result, Myers connected on 34 field goals, which was the most he has had in any of his eight seasons. Although he's had a couple down years from an accuracy standpoint, Myers has made at least 91.7 percent of his field goals in three of the last five years. He just signed a four-year contract, so he has job security. And if the Seahawks continue their positive direction on offense, he should be a top-eight kicking option.
- Round 21, Pick 243 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 150
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
- Round 22, Pick 262 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1646 - 2022 Rank: 1646
- Round 23, Pick 267 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 199 - 2022 Rank: 199
Murray has been able to do some incredible things on the football field since coming into the league. but between personnel issues on offense and questionable coaching, it's fair to say we haven't seen the best out of him yet. Unfortunately, after suffering an ACL tear on December 12th, he's expected to miss at least the first four games of 2023. Much of last year's problems can be placed on external factors, but there's no certainty those will be any better this season. Murray had a career low 6.1 yards per attempt last year, and his 14.7 TD:INT ratio was the first time he wasn't over 2:1 since his 2019 rookie season. Of course, Murray continued to do well as a runner. He had at least 25 rushing yards in all but one game while going over 40 four times. Because of the knee injury, it's hard to recommend Murray as any more than a QB2 this season. And that is mostly in single quarterback leagues where fantasy managers take a second quarterback. To count on him in superflex leagues is difficult until we have a firm timetable for his return to complete health.
Team Forecast
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
