In the sunny paradise of the HRC Aloha 🤙🏼🏝🌋 league, the Austin808 team made a splash with their A+ draft grade. Positioned at the 3rd spot in the draft order, they rode the wave of success, making 18 rounds of picks that left their opponents green with envy. With a projected record of 12-3-0 and a projected finish in 1st place, it seems like the Austin808 team is set to conquer the fantasy football world like a lava flow engulfing a palm tree-shaped trophy.
While the Austin808 team made several shrewd picks, their best move was snagging Jonathan Taylor at the 70th spot, a steal considering his ADP of 25. This pick alone could ignite a fire in their lineup that rivals the eruption of a volcano. However, not every pick was as hot as molten lava. The selection of Miles Sanders at 46, when his ADP was 54, raised a few eyebrows. But hey, even in paradise, not every sunset is picture-perfect. Despite this minor hiccup, the Austin808 team managed to draft three players from the same team, proving that they have the cohesiveness of a synchronized hula dance. With their team spirit and talent, the Austin808 squad is poised to ride the waves of victory and leave their opponents in a state of aloha-induced awe.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 42
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 22 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 32
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 35
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 4, Pick 46 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 53 - 2022 Rank: 64
Sanders signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers in March, cashing in after a career year in 2022 which included 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 17 games for Philadelphia. He won't be playing in a top offense anymore, but with the Panthers, he'll make far more money and have a secure rushing workload. The Eagles had a variety of options at their disposal and would sometimes go away from Sanders in the game plan, which made his production inconsistent even in 2022. He'll likely average fewer yards per carry with the Panthers, but he may also get more overall touches after averaging between 13.5 and 16.4 per game in four seasons with the Eagles. Chuba Hubbard looms as a capable alternative, though he might get the bulk of his work on passing downs where Sanders is less useful. While that might come with the risk of getting phased out of the offense when the Panthers abandon the run, it's also possible Sanders gets more involved in the passing game (only 20 catches last year) on early downs.
- Round 5, Pick 51 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 109
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 6, Pick 70 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 141
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 7, Pick 75 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 68
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
- Round 8, Pick 94 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 13
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 9, Pick 99 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 162
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 118 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 131
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 11, Pick 123 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 149
Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.
- Round 12, Pick 142 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 130
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 13, Pick 147 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 255
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 14, Pick 166 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 233
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
- Round 15, Pick 171 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 228
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
- Round 16, Pick 190 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 161 - 2022 Rank: 453
Howell made only one start last year as a rookie, and that came in Week 18, but the North Carolina product appears poised to begin 2023 as the starting quarterback for Washington. The team cleared the way for the 2022 fifth-round pick to take over by releasing Carson Wentz and letting Taylor Heinicke walk in free agency. Howell has the arm talent to succeed in the NFL, but he lacks game-changing mobility and has to prove he can diagnose coverage quickly enough to take full advantage of a solid group of wideouts led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Commanders brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, and the former Kansas City offensive coordinator will likely focus on setting Howell up for quick strikes rather than leave him hanging in the pocket behind what was one of the league's poorer offensive lines in 2022. If Howell stumbles badly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but the younger QB will get every chance to show he can solve the franchise's long-running woes at the position.
- Round 17, Pick 195 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 217 - 2022 Rank: 104
After playing only five games in his first season with Washington in 2021, Samuel stayed healthy last year and posted solid numbers as the No. 3 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Samuel saw significant usage on the ground to supplement his 64 catches, the second-highest total of his career, but his ceiling would appear to be firmly capped given his role in a middle-of-the-pack offense. There are reasons to think the unit as a whole could take a big step forward in 2023, however. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell takes the reins under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who brings a Super Bowl-winning scheme with him from Kansas City. Barring an injury to McLaurin or Dotson though, it's hard to see a path by which Samuel would get featured prominently.
DEF - Round 18, Pick 214 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 97
The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
