In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, the Sharp Shooters lived up to their name by taking aim and firing...at their own hopes of success. With a draft grade of D+, it's safe to say that their marksmanship was a bit off. Projected to finish 13th with a record of 5-9-0, it seems like their shots missed the mark by a wide margin. Their projected points of 1807.37 might as well be target practice for their opponents, who will surely be licking their lips at the prospect of facing this team.
The Sharp Shooters' draft strategy seemed to be quantity over quality, as they loaded up on quarterbacks and kickers like they were going out of style. With a whopping six quarterbacks and six kickers, they clearly didn't get the memo that the league average is 2.5 and 2, respectively. Maybe they're planning on starting a quarterback rotation or holding a kicking competition every week. Who knows? One thing's for sure, though: their opponents won't be shaking in their boots when they see this team's lineup. With three players on bye week 10, it's going to be a long and lonely week for the Sharp Shooters. Maybe they can use that time to practice their shooting skills, because they're going to need all the help they can get to avoid being the laughingstock of the league.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 2, Pick 38 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 140
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
- Round 3, Pick 43 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: 1499
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 4, Pick 78 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 39
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 5, Pick 83 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 80 - 2022 Rank: 1495
After the Vikings cut ties with Adam Thielen, they were in need of a clear No. 2 receiver. They didn't waste time in addressing that need, using the 23rd pick in this year's draft to select Addison. In college, he showed the ability to run effective routes at all levels of the field. He also showed excellent separation skills. But his game wasn't without questions. The 175-pound receiver seemed to lack some physicality, which could be an issue in the NFL. Also, quite a bit of his college production came on screen passes, and that may be difficult to duplicate at the next level. Finally, he disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran a 55th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and his explosiveness testing came in at the 50th percentile. Regardless, he is expected to start across from Justin Jefferson this season. He'll also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who has shown the ability to lead a productive passing attack. Despite some knocks on his profile as he enters the pros, volume and circumstance could propel Addison to a productive rookie campaign.
- Round 6, Pick 118 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 94
Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.
- Round 7, Pick 123 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 722
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
- Round 8, Pick 158 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1262 - 2022 Rank: 103
Hicks joined the Vikings in 2022, his third team in his eight-year NFL career. He didn't miss a beat with the switch, tallying 128 tackles - the second-highest mark of his career - to top the century mark for the fourth consecutive campaign. Minnesota also asked Hicks to take on additional responsibilities in coverage, and he rose to the occasion by racking up 10 passes defensed. Entering his age-31 season, Hicks has been a picture of health by playing in every game across the last four campaigns. Assuming that continues, he'll remain a prominent member of the defense and is also a good bet to add to his impressive career resume.
- Round 9, Pick 163 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1184 - 2022 Rank: 79
Singleton has quickly gone from an undrafted free agent to a key cog in the Broncos' defense. The 2022 season marked his first with Denver, but he didn't miss a beat after moving on from the Eagles to rack up a career-high 163 tackles. It was his third campaign with at least 100 tackles. More specifically, Singleton recorded double-digit tackle totals in seven games last season, while also making at least 20 stops in two games. He signed a three-year deal worth up to $18 million with the Broncos in March, pushing him to the center of the team's defensive goals. It also means that Singleton is in a position to continue to make plays on a defense that could be one of the league's strongest units.
- Round 10, Pick 198 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 2596 - 2022 Rank: 700
Even though McCoy played in four games last year and averaged 34 pass attempts per game, he wasn't a strong fantasy option. In addition to averaging 195 yards per game, he threw just one touchdown pass to three interceptions. And if he's pressed into starting duty to start the season while Kyler Murray (knee) recovers, he'll be without his top weapon from last year, DeAndre Hopkins. Since 2010, McCoy has mostly been a decent backup quarterback, but entering his age-35 season, he may just be an emergency option for an NFL team. The Cardinals released him in late August and went with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune as their quarterbacks instead.
- Round 11, Pick 203 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1160 - 2022 Rank: 71
- Round 12, Pick 238 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1585 - 2022 Rank: 234
- Round 13, Pick 243 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 496 - 2022 Rank: 169
- Round 14, Pick 278 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1006 - 2022 Rank: 316
- Round 15, Pick 283 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 2661 - 2022 Rank: 1544
Tune was selected in the fifth round of this year's draft. He's an athletic quarterback who improved throughout his college career at Houston, and he combined for 45 total touchdowns last year. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will miss at least the first four games to complete his rehab from an ACL tear, while veteran backup Colt McCoy was released two weeks before the start of the regular season. The Cardinals thus appear set to play Tune and/or Joshua Dobbs for the first few games of what looks to be a rebuilding year.
- Round 16, Pick 318 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2597 - 2022 Rank: 1397
- Round 17, Pick 323 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 223 - 2022 Rank: 509
It would be hasty to count Renfrow out after one bad season, especially since he was so solid in all of the three prior years. But his 2022 season could hardly have been more concerning. A concussion and oblique issue played a role, but for Renfrow to return just 36 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 50 targets in 10 games is the kind of dysfunction that could hint at a poor system fit. It's possible that Josh McDaniels just doesn't have much idea of how to use Renfrow, a fear that was made worse when the Raiders signed New England slot standout Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $33 million contract this offseason. Then the Raiders bizarrely targeted two more slot specialists -- former Chargers wideout DeAndre Carter in free agency and Cincinnati wideout Tre Tucker in the third round of the draft. Renfrow himself is on a two-year, $31.7 million extension signed before the 2022 season, so the Raiders are on the hook for a lot of cash either way. Even if it's not his first inclination, McDaniels has plenty of incentive to figure out how to use Renfrow more properly in 2023. It's just not clear if McDaniels is any closer to getting there.
- Round 18, Pick 358 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 205 - 2022 Rank: 390
Parker, who was traded to New England via the Dolphins last April, caught 31 of his 47 targets for 539 yards and three scores in 13 games in his first season with the Patriots. The 30-year-old is the best contested-catch option in New England's wide receiver room, though the presence of two capable pass-catching tight ends in Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki could portend significant role overlap. Parker's key to fantasy success will be to establish better chemistry with Mac Jones in their second year together, thus earning more reliable volume. Even then, JuJu Smith-Schuster profiles as the leader among the Patriots' WR room, while Tyquan Thornton and Kendrick Bourne could both realistically be featured more prominently in 2023.
- Round 19, Pick 363 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 284 - 2022 Rank: 1664
Longtime Packers kicker Mason Crosby is not under contract and will be 39 years old when the season starts, so Carlson seems in line to be the starting kicker. Green Bay selected Carlson in the sixth round of this year's draft. With the team going through transition as Jordan Love takes over at quarterback, it's uncertain as to what we can expect from the Packers offense. Between Carlson being a late-round pick and the uncertainty surrounding the team, it may be wise to rank Carlson outside the top-15 kickers.
- Round 20, Pick 398 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 185 - 2022 Rank: 492
Jackson got a chance to showcase his versatile skill set last season after Jonathan Taylor was injured and Nyheim Hines was traded. After being limited to 13 carries as an undrafted rookie out of Duke in 2021, Jackson rushed 68 times for 236 yards and a touchdown while catching 30 of 34 targets for 209 yards and a receiving TD in 2022. With Taylor back healthy, Jackson will compete with Zack Moss and rookie fifth-round pick Evan Hull for change-of-pace touches behind the lead back. Moss is better suited for early down work in the event of another Taylor injury, so Jackson's ticket to playing time will be beating out Hull for touches in passing situations. That will be easier said than done with Hull coming off a 55-catch senior season at Northwestern.
- Round 21, Pick 403 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 278 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 22, Pick 438 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1889 - 2022 Rank: 62
After moving around the league for a while, Pineiro eventually found a home with Carolina in 2022, converting 33 out of 35 FGAs along with 30 of 32 PATs. Then, in March, the Panthers signed him a two-year contract, which seemingly ensures his job security. For fantasy purposes, things look somewhat less promising for Pineiro, as the Panthers have a new coach, a rookie QB and below-average pass catchers. It could work out for Pineiro's stat line if the Panthers are able to move the ball regularly but then struggle in the red zone, but it's also possible they just struggle overall. A soft schedule in the weakling NFC South should help, with the added benefit of playing home games in one of the NFL's warmer cities.
- Round 23, Pick 443 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 2640 - 2022 Rank: 1067
Gabbert's free agency arrival to Kansas City from Tampa Bay is a case of a prodigal son returned, as Gabbert was once a star quarterback at Missouri before he was a first-round pick for the Jaguars. Now about to turn 34, it's been ages since we last saw Gabbert play meaningful snaps - 2018, to be specific. It's anyone's guess how Gabbert's game might have changed since then, but Gabbert was always a very toolsy player, both in terms of arm strength and rushing ability. There's a chance that he's learned a few new tricks since 2018 without any physical decline over the same time frame. With that said, as much as Gabbert might be a good backup for the Chiefs, they of course hope they don't have to find out.
- Round 24, Pick 478 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 155 - 2022 Rank: 631
With Jonathan Taylor on the shelf the final four weeks of 2022, Moss rushed for 334 yards and a touchdown on 69 carries, though he was limited to just 12 receiving yards over that span. That strong finish on the ground likely earned Moss a spot on the Colts' 2023 roster after the 2020 third-round pick opened his career with a pair of lackluster seasons in Buffalo. In fact, Moss even entered training camp with a shot at the second spot on the depth chart, which meant taking a lot of snaps with the starters while Taylor missed practice for what seemingly was a mix of contract and injury reasons. The opportunity may have slipped through Moss' hands, however, as a broken arm at the end of July left him with an estimated recovery timeline of six weeks. The Colts, meanwhile, are left with Deon Jackson and rookie Evan Hull as the top choices to fill in for Taylor.
- Round 25, Pick 483 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1181 - 2022 Rank: 1110
- Round 26, Pick 518 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 560 - 2022 Rank: 239
- Round 27, Pick 523 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2489 - 2022 Rank: 1656
During the offseason, the 49ers made a trade with the Panthers for Gonzalez when the team's kicker, Robbie Gould, decided not to re-sign. Gonzalez seemed like the likely replacement, but during this year's draft, San Francisco acquired Jake Moody using a third-round pick. It would be unwise for the front office to choose such a high draft pick for a player they don't plan on keeping after training camp, so Gonzalez may have to find another home by Week 1.
- Round 28, Pick 558 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2493 - 2022 Rank: 72
During the last six seasons with San Francisco, Gould had an 87.5 percent success rate on FGAs and a 96.1 percent success rate on PATs. However, the 49ers chose not to re-sign him in the current season. Instead, they used a third-round pick on Jake Moody. Although Gould, who is 40 years old, has not made more than two kicks from 50-plus yards in a season since 2017, he can still secure another job if he decides to continue playing because of his consistent performance from short range.
- Round 29, Pick 563 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2479 - 2022 Rank: 88
In March, the Bucs let go of Succop after he spent three years with the team. During his time, he successfully made 84.8 percent of field goals and 93.6 percent of PATs. However, aside from cost, the problem arose when he only converted 3 out of 10 attempts from 50-plus yards, which lowered his overall career accuracy rate on those kicks to just below 50 percent. Nevertheless, for shorter kicks, the 36-year-old remains dependable and could potentially secure a starting job before Week 1.
- Round 30, Pick 598 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 2614 - 2022 Rank: 1553
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
