In the highly competitive Well Endowed Warriors Keeper league, Close But No Ja'Marr showed their draft prowess by earning an impressive A+ grade. With the 6th pick in the draft order, they strategically maneuvered through 18 rounds to assemble a formidable team. Projected to finish 1st with a perfect 14-0-0 record, Close But No Ja'Marr is poised to leave their opponents in the dust.
While some may question their decision to draft Jordan Addison at 43, well above his ADP of 112, Close But No Ja'Marr's best pick of Bryce Young at 115, below his ADP of 124, proves their ability to find hidden gems. With a projected points total of 2229.22, Close But No Ja'Marr is set to dominate the league. Despite facing the 7th toughest schedule out of 12 teams and having 3 players on bye week 7, this team is ready to overcome any obstacle. Watch out, because Close But No Ja'Marr is here to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 23
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 7
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 125
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 4, Pick 43 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 80 - 2022 Rank: 716
After the Vikings cut ties with Adam Thielen, they were in need of a clear No. 2 receiver. They didn't waste time in addressing that need, using the 23rd pick in this year's draft to select Addison. In college, he showed the ability to run effective routes at all levels of the field. He also showed excellent separation skills. But his game wasn't without questions. The 175-pound receiver seemed to lack some physicality, which could be an issue in the NFL. Also, quite a bit of his college production came on screen passes, and that may be difficult to duplicate at the next level. Finally, he disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran a 55th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and his explosiveness testing came in at the 50th percentile. Regardless, he is expected to start across from Justin Jefferson this season. He'll also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who has shown the ability to lead a productive passing attack. Despite some knocks on his profile as he enters the pros, volume and circumstance could propel Addison to a productive rookie campaign.
- Round 5, Pick 54 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 159
Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.
- Round 6, Pick 67 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 119
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
DEF - Round 7, Pick 78 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 137
The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.
- Round 8, Pick 91 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 352 - 2022 Rank: 724
Mayer probably shouldn't have fallen to the Raiders at the 35th pick. As much as it was fair for NFL teams to find some concern in his athletic testing (4.7-second 40 at 249 pounds), it was never a good basis for letting Mayer fall out of the first round. If Mayer had run any faster, he would have been worth a top-15 pick - his barely disappointing combine was a basis to have Mayer fall out of the top-15, not out of the first round. Dalton Kincaid wasn't nearly as good of a collegiate tight end as Mayer, and Sam LaPorta probably was worse too, yet both players went ahead of Mayer. Mayer will likely be a steal for the Raiders as a result - think a better version of Zach Ertz - so the question of when Mayer breaks out as a fantasy asset might be pending how soon he can overtake the veteran Austin Hooper. Mayer is a good bet to skip the rookie-year struggles that most tight ends face (Mayer caught 42 passes as a true freshman at Notre Dame), but Hooper could be just enough of an obstacle to delay Mayer's full arrival as a fantasy option by a year.
- Round 9, Pick 102 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 705
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 10, Pick 115 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 710
The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.
- Round 11, Pick 126 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 202
It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 139 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 204 - 2022 Rank: 186
The Bengals defense had a strong 2022, ranking eighth with 24 takeaways and sixth with only 19 points allowed per game. However, the team lost both starting safeties, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, during free agency in the offseason. As a result, they will have to rely on 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill and new signing Nick Scott to step up.Additionally, the Bengals have added second-round rookie CB DJ Turner to their secondary. The team's front seven at least looks strong again, which may aid the inexperienced secondary. And from a fantasy standpoint, it helps that the Bengals have an offense capable of providing large leads throughout the season.
- Round 13, Pick 150 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 241 - 2022 Rank: 747
Downs was highly productive at UNC, but the 2023 third-round pick's measurables are nothing to write home about. His 4.48 speed isn't all that impressive given his size at 5-foot-10, 175. But Downs played faster than his 40 time suggests in college en route to 195 catches, 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns in 24 games his last two seasons. Downs will compete with former Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie for the starting job in the slot for a Colts passing game with few established pass catchers after Michael Pittman. If Downs beats out McKenzie, he and second-year wideout Alec Pierce would likely see the majority of targets behind Pittman, but there may not be all that many looks to go around. The Colts are planning to implement a run-first approach around RB Jonathan Taylor, especially if rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson starts right away at QB. The strong-armed Richardson should contribute to the run-heavy nature of Indianapolis' attack with his legs, and there are questions about his accuracy, so Downs could have an easier path to early success if Richardson loses the QB competition to veteran Gardner Minshew.
- Round 14, Pick 163 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 270 - 2022 Rank: 148
Although he's going into his age-25 season, things are not looking up for Fant. Despite seemingly having more opportunity last year in Seattle than he did in Denver, he posted career lows in yardage, targets and yards per reception. Although he's a great athlete, Fant was in the 40th percentile in yardage after the catch. To make matters worse, Seattle moved Colby Parkinson ahead of Fant as a receiver in the second half of the season. It seems unlikely that things will turn around for Fant anytime soon, and he may not be worth a draft pick in many fantasy leagues.
- Round 15, Pick 174 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 39
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 16, Pick 187 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 60
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 17, Pick 198 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 10
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 18, Pick 211 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 62
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
