One and done's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 90
D- Grade
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Bill's Unmatched Team Fails to Match Expectations with Draft Disaster

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In a draft that can only be described as a train wreck, Bill's Unmatched Team managed to secure a solid D- grade, which is about as impressive as a goldfish attempting to climb Mount Everest. With the 6th pick in the draft order, Bill's Unmatched Team had high hopes of assembling a championship-caliber roster, but instead they seemed to have mistaken the draft for a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey. Their projected finish of 6th place is a fitting reflection of their draft performance, as they managed to select a lineup that is about as intimidating as a kitten wearing a feather boa.

One of the few bright spots in Bill's Unmatched Team's draft was their selection of Keenan Allen at pick 55, a steal considering his ADP of 49. However, any glimmer of hope was quickly extinguished by their mind-boggling decision to draft George Pickens at pick 54, a player with an ADP of 96. It's almost as if they were trying to sabotage their own team. In a stunning display of overconfidence, Bill's Unmatched Team managed to draft a whopping 7 wide receivers, clearly under the impression that they were participating in a WR-only league. With this level of strategic prowess, it's no wonder they're projected to finish dead last. Looks like Bill's Unmatched Team is living up to their name in more ways than one.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

RB - Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 19

Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.

TE - Round 2, Pick 7 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 20

A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.

WR - Round 3, Pick 18 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 7 - 2022 Rank: 18

It doesn't diminish his legacy with Aaron Rodgers any in hindsight, but it's quite a testament to Adams' abilities that he moved from Green Bay to the Raiders and had almost no drop off in his production. Although it took an extra game in 2022 than 2021, Adams eclipsed 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the second year in a row last year. Adams even improved on the touchdown production from Green Bay to Las Vegas, scoring 14 times on his 100 catches last year compared to 11 times on 123 catches his final year with the Packers. Adams expressed dissatisfaction with the Raiders organization and its direction following the 2022 season, but that realization probably hit him at some point before then, yet it didn't stop Adams from producing at an elite level. What could perhaps harm Adams' production is the Raiders quarterback situation. Free agent pickup Jimmy Garoppolo should be good enough for Adams to thrive, but Garoppolo's surgically-repaired foot is such a concern that the Raiders wrote an out clause in Garoppolo's contract that allows them to cut him with no cap penalty. Brian Hoyer would be the likely backup if Garoppolo were to miss time, and it's difficult to feel totally secure with Adams if that's the type of quarterbacking he might have to deal with.

WR - Round 4, Pick 19 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 62

Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.

RB - Round 5, Pick 30 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 41

During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.

QB - Round 6, Pick 31 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4

Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.

WR - Round 7, Pick 42 - Bye 14

2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 52

McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.

K - Round 8, Pick 43 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 77

Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.

WR - Round 9, Pick 54 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 108

Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.

WR - Round 10, Pick 55 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 124

Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.

WR - Round 11, Pick 66 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 54

Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.

WR - Round 12, Pick 67 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: -

Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.

RB - Round 13, Pick 78 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 31

Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.

DEF - Round 14, Pick 79 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 144 - 2022 Rank: 132

Last season, the Ravens performed impressively and ranked third, fifth, and ninth in points allowed per game, sacks and takeaways, respectively. The addition of LB Roquan Smith helped a great deal, and fellow linebacker Patrick Queen stepped up his own performance after the mid-season trade for Smith. However, the Ravens suffered a setback this offseason with the loss of DE Calais Campbell to the Falcons, while OLB Justin Houston, who posted 9.5 sacks last season, has not been signed yet. As a result, it's possible that the Ravens D/ST may not perform at the same level this season, sporting major question marks at cornerback and along the defensive line.

TE - Round 15, Pick 90 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 152

After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

One and done
1. (6) Nick Chubb (Cle - RB)
2. (7) Travis Kelce (KC - TE)
3. (18) Davante Adams (LV - WR)
4. (19) Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR)
5. (30) Joe Mixon (Hou - RB)
6. (31) Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
7. (42) Terry McLaurin (Was - WR)
8. (43) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)
9. (54) George Pickens (Pit - WR)
10. (55) Keenan Allen (Chi - WR)
11. (66) Mike Evans (TB - WR)
12. (67) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea - WR)
13. (78) Dalvin Cook (Bal - RB)
14. (79) Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
15. (90) Dalton Schultz (Hou - TE)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.