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Frank’s Egg's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 12, Pick 140
D- Grade
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Brittany's Amazing Team Drafts Their Way to Mediocrity

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In the Wildcard! League draft, Brittany's Amazing Team managed to secure a solid D- grade, which is about as amazing as their team name. With a projected record of 4-10-0 and a projected finish of 9th, it's safe to say that Brittany's team is set to achieve nothing short of average. Their projected points of 1450.24 might sound impressive, but it's important to remember that projections are about as reliable as a [PLAYER_ID] with a sprained ankle.

While Brittany's Amazing Team did have a shining moment with their best pick, Dallas Goedert, drafted at 77 when their ADP was 57, they quickly plummeted back to reality with their worst pick, Elijah Moore, drafted at 92 when their ADP was 120. It seems like Brittany's Amazing Team is all about defying expectations, just not in a good way. With the 5th toughest schedule out of 12 teams and one player on bye week 10, it's going to be a long and arduous season for Brittany's Amazing Team. Maybe they should consider changing their team name to Brittany's Mediocre Team instead.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

QB - Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1

Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.

WR - Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 76

Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.

RB - Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 43

During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.

WR - Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 138

Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.

K - Round 5, Pick 53 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 62

Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.

WR - Round 6, Pick 68 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 113

Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.

TE - Round 7, Pick 77 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 161

Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.

WR - Round 8, Pick 92 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 248

Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.

RB - Round 9, Pick 101 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 32

Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.

RB - Round 10, Pick 116 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 74

McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.

WR - Round 11, Pick 125 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 312

Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.

DEF - Round 12, Pick 140 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 338

Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Frank’s Egg
1. (5) Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
2. (20) Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR)
3. (29) Joe Mixon (Hou - RB)
4. (44) Keenan Allen (Chi - WR)
5. (53) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)
6. (68) Christian Watson (GB - WR)
7. (77) Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE)
8. (92) Elijah Moore (Cle - WR)
9. (101) Jamaal Williams (NO - RB)
10. (116) Jerick McKinnon (KC - RB)
11. (125) Michael Thomas (NO - WR)
12. (140) New England (NE - DEF)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.