Schenkel's Chiefs's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 169
C+ Grade
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Schenkel's Chiefs: Drafting Their Way to a Mediocre 6th Place Finish

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In the FantasyStars league, Schenkel's Chiefs kicked off the draft with the coveted 1st overall pick. Armed with their 15 rounds, they managed to secure a C+ draft grade, which is about as exciting as watching paint dry. Despite their lackluster performance, the Chiefs are projected to finish 6th, which is a solid meh in a league of 12 teams. With a projected record of 8-7-0, they'll be the epitome of average.

While Schenkel's Chiefs may not have hit it out of the park with their draft, they did manage to make a few notable moves. Their best pick came in the form of Rashaad Penny, who was snatched up at pick 120, well below their ADP of 101. It's always a win when you can get a steal like that. On the flip side, their worst pick was D'Andre Swift, who was selected at pick 49, a far cry from their ADP of 81. Oops. And let's not forget that Schenkel's Chiefs went all-in on one team, drafting not one, not two, but three players from the same team. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket, or in this case, all your Chiefs in one draft.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

WR - Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 45

The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.

WR - Round 2, Pick 24 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 34

Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.

QB - Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 3

Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.

WR - Round 4, Pick 48 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 124

Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.

RB - Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 72

A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.

K - Round 6, Pick 72 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 77

Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.

RB - Round 7, Pick 73 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 127

Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.

TE - Round 8, Pick 96 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 152 - 2022 Rank: 139

There were positives and negatives to be taken from Kmet's 2022 season. He set career highs with seven touchdowns, 7.9 yards per target and 10.9 yards perception. However, his targets fell from 93 to 69, so obviously his catches and production regressed from 2021. Chicago had a nearly invisible passing attack early in the season. As a result, Kmet had 16 or fewer yards in four of the first six games. Things ended up getting better as the season went on. He didn't fall below 27 yards in any of his last nine games. And during that time Kmet saw between five and seven targets in seven of those contests. He'll benefit from the Bears having added DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation. Between Moore and Darnell Mooney, Chicago has speed on the outside, which should open up room in the middle of the field for Kmet to operate. It's unlikely Kmet moves into the top tier of fantasy tight ends. But based on demonstrated ability and the potential for increased opportunity, Kmet has a solid chance to end up as a top-10 tight end.

DEF - Round 9, Pick 97 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 185

It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.

RB - Round 10, Pick 120 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 288

The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.

QB - Round 11, Pick 121 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 116 - 2022 Rank: 6

After throwing 34 touchdowns in 45 career games, Smith threw 30 touchdown passes last year. Before throwing for 4,282 yards last year, his best prior season was his 2013 rookie season when he threw for 3,046. He was an incredible success story after being written off as a fantasy option, and he didn't even win the Seahawks starting job until the last game of the preseason. For most of last season, Smith was very consistent. He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of 11 games between Weeks 3 and 14. However, Smith ended the season slowly. He threw exactly one touchdown pass in three of his last four games while also throwing for 215 or fewer yards in each of his last three games. There's always concern about paying up for a career year in fantasy football, and with Smith's career year coming at age 31, it raises a lot of red flags. However, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense requires a strong processor at quarterback, and Smith has always been that. In addition, he has excellent wide receiver weapons along with a good running game. Seattle also addressed their offensive line last season, so that it was no longer a liability. Overall, Smith is definitely in position to succeed with another strong season. It's also possible the stars aligned perfectly and his great prior season may see him regress back to career form. Since he is typically being selected outside the top quarterback options in fantasy drafts, there isn't a lot of risk in selecting him.

WR - Round 12, Pick 144 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 286

Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.

WR - Round 13, Pick 145 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 258 - 2022 Rank: 228

Hardman couldn't take advantage of Tyreek Hill's departure in his fourth season with the Chiefs last year, averaging less than 40 yards per game in the eight games he played. He'll once again get the advantage of playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in New York, though Aaron Rodger's substandard 2022 campaign could be reason for tampering expectations. The Jets' receiving corps is less crowded behind No. 1 Garrett Wilson after Corey Davis retired in August. Hardman is the only real speedster of the group, and his skillset doesn't significantly overlap with Allen Lazard, a more big-bodied chain mover. Tthe 25-year-old Hardman could well be a regular fixture in three-wide sets. The argument for Hardman as a post-hype sleeper isn't difficult, as long as he's indeed able to get healthy without setbacks, but fantasy may be fatigued enough for him to fall to the last round of drafts.

RB - Round 14, Pick 168 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 224

Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.

RB - Round 15, Pick 169 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 113 - 2022 Rank: -

Even though the Seahawks had a strong rookie season from Kenneth Walker last year, the team used their second-round draft pick for the second year in a row to add Charbonnet. While in college, Charbonnet forced many missed tackles while also having the power to break tackles as well. In addition, he caught 37 passes and proved to be a solid receiver. It's possible that he was drafted to add depth to a thin backfield, but Seattle may also want Charbonnet to be a big factor in their backfield. It's likely that Walker has the edge for lead work going into the season, though Charbonnet should see significant work each week. However, if Charbonnet outplays Walker, don't be surprised if coach Pete Carroll changes the running back roles.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Schenkel's Chiefs
1. (1) Ja'Marr Chase (Cin - WR)
2. (24) Jaylen Waddle (Mia - WR)
3. (25) Jalen Hurts (Phi - QB)
4. (48) Keenan Allen (Chi - WR)
5. (49) D'Andre Swift (Chi - RB)
6. (72) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)
7. (73) Isiah Pacheco (KC - RB)
8. (96) Cole Kmet (Chi - TE)
9. (97) Denver (Den - DEF)
10. (120) Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB)
11. (121) Geno Smith (Sea - QB)
12. (144) Kadarius Toney (KC - WR)
13. (145) Mecole Hardman (KC - WR)
14. (168) Damien Harris (Buf - RB)
15. (169) Zach Charbonnet (Sea - RB)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.