Travis Kelce Player Note

TE - Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 22

A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.

Patrick Mahomes Player Note

QB - Round 2, Pick 12 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1

Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.

Tee Higgins Player Note

WR - Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 78 - 2022 Rank: 69

Higgins is well established as a high-quality WR2 in both real life and fantasy football. There's been some talk of him getting a WR1 opportunity as he enters the final year of his contract, but the Bengals don't seem interested in succumbing to trade rumors. Higgins showed up for the offseason program, and the team can keep him around next year with a franchise tag even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer/fall. He had at least 908 yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns the past two years. At 6-4, he excels on jump balls and contested catches, and although he is not as fast as teammate Ja'Marr Chase or as much of a YAC threat, Higgins nonetheless has proven quite useful on short and intermediate passes. In terms of fantasy upside beyond the 1,200-yard range or so, that'll probably only happen for Higgins in Cincinnati if Chase misses extended time -- a scenario that would leave the talented 2020 second-round pick as Joe Burrow's unquestioned top option.

Calvin Ridley Player Note

WR - Round 4, Pick 32 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 697

Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.

Alexander Mattison Player Note

RB - Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 246

Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.

Terry McLaurin Player Note

WR - Round 6, Pick 52 - Bye 14

2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 64

McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.

Javonte Williams Player Note

RB - Round 7, Pick 69 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 344

Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.

Alvin Kamara Player Note

RB - Round 8, Pick 72 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 72

Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.

D'Andre Swift Player Note

RB - Round 9, Pick 89 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 119

A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.

Jamaal Williams Player Note

RB - Round 10, Pick 92 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 41

Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.

AJ Dillon Player Note

RB - Round 11, Pick 109 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 147

Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.

Courtland Sutton Player Note

WR - Round 12, Pick 112 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 172

Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.

Adam Thielen Player Note

WR - Round 13, Pick 129 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 173 - 2022 Rank: 160

Thielen scored six touchdowns last year and 30 total in his final three seasons in Minnesota, but every other stat points to decline, including his 2022 averages of 4.1 catches for 42.1 yards per game. Undeterred, the Panthers signed Thielen to a three-year, $25 million contract that includes $14 million guaranteed at signing, ensuring No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will have at least one experienced starting wideout to target. The team also brought in WR DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst, later adding WR Jonathan Mingo in the second round of the draft. It was a full revamp of the skill positions, while the offensive line has more stability after making huge strides throughout last season. A full-on renaissance is unlikely for Thielen in his age-33 season, but he does at least seem locked in for a starting job and at least a handful of targets per week. Whether that translates to low-end fantasy value or not partially depends on how Young develops under new Panthers head coach Frank Reich.

New Orleans No new player Notes

DEF - Round 14, Pick 132 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 75

The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.

Romeo Doubs Player Note

WR - Round 15, Pick 149 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 239

Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.

Tyler Boyd Player Note

WR - Round 16, Pick 152 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 155

Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.

DJ Chark Jr. Player Note

WR - Round 17, Pick 169 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 227

Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.

Anders Carlson Player Note

K - Round 18, Pick 172 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 284 - 2022 Rank: 890

Longtime Packers kicker Mason Crosby is not under contract and will be 39 years old when the season starts, so Carlson seems in line to be the starting kicker. Green Bay selected Carlson in the sixth round of this year's draft. With the team going through transition as Jordan Love takes over at quarterback, it's uncertain as to what we can expect from the Packers offense. Between Carlson being a late-round pick and the uncertainty surrounding the team, it may be wise to rank Carlson outside the top-15 kickers.