John 3.16's Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 15, Pick 179
B Grade
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John 3.16 Drafts Their Way to a Solid B Grade and a Middle-of-the-Pack Finish

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In the fantasy draft for the A Few Good Men league, John 3.16 had the 11th pick out of 12 teams. Despite their less-than-ideal draft position, they managed to put together a respectable team that earned them a solid B grade. With a projected record of 7-7-0, John 3.16 is expected to finish in 6th place, right in the middle of the pack. Their projected points of 1809.02 indicate that they have the potential to put up a fight, but they'll need to bring their A-game to overcome the 7th toughest schedule in the league.

While John 3.16 made some solid picks, they also had a few questionable choices. Their best pick came in the form of Deshaun Watson, who was drafted at 107 despite having an ADP of 92. This steal of a pick could prove to be a valuable asset for the team. On the other hand, their worst pick was Aaron Jones, who was taken at 14 despite having an ADP of 33. It seems like John 3.16 may have reached a bit too far for this player. Additionally, they took a risk by drafting three players from the same team: Isiah Pacheco, Kadarius Toney, and Kansas City. While this could pay off if the team performs well, it also leaves them vulnerable to a single team's poor performance. All in all, John 3.16 has a decent lineup, but they'll need some divine intervention to truly make a mark in the league.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

WR - Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 11

After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.

RB - Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 33

Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.

RB - Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 256

A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.

RB - Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 125

Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.

TE - Round 5, Pick 59 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 184

Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.

RB - Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 92

Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.

WR - Round 7, Pick 83 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 103

Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.

QB - Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 24

The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.

QB - Round 9, Pick 107 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 227

When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.

WR - Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 66

Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.

RB - Round 11, Pick 131 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 348

Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.

WR - Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 312

Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.

TE - Round 13, Pick 155 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 257 - 2022 Rank: 115

Hill remained in the hybrid role he's been in for years. But last year, his primary job was running the ball. He threw 19 passes and caught nine balls, but he rushed 96 times. HIll was excellent as a runner, averaging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry. Hill will realize his best fantasy value in leagues where he is TE-eligible. But going into his age-33 season, it's fair to question whether he'll enter the decline phase of his career. However, he didn't show those signs last year. Consistent usage is probably the bigger problem, especially if new Saint QB Derek Carr stays healthy. Hill could see an increase in work if Alvin Kamara receives league discipline based on his July 31 court case from a battery charge. Hill is an intriguing upside pick should you miss out on the more standard, Top-10 tight end options.

K - Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 97

Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.

DEF - Round 15, Pick 179 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 174 - 2022 Rank: 129

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense will always be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Chiefs, but the defense could be on the verge of becoming one of their best in a long time. It's already a pretty good defense -- their 55 sacks last year were tied for second behind the Eagles (70), and that was before adding first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State. The Chiefs will continue to see ample pass-rushing opportunities with Mahomes forcing opponents to play catch-up, and both the linebackers and secondary are loaded with young, improving talents.The Chiefs defense is deep and varied with talent, which should afford defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a wide variety of unpredictable personnel and playcalling combinations. High-scoring division or not, the Chiefs should be a good fantasy defense if only due to their pass-rushing and turnover upside.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

John 3.16
1. (11) Justin Jefferson (Min - WR)
2. (14) Aaron Jones (Min - RB)
3. (35) J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB)
4. (38) Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)
5. (59) Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE)
6. (62) Isiah Pacheco (KC - RB)
7. (83) Gabe Davis (Jax - WR)
8. (86) Aaron Rodgers (NYJ - QB)
9. (107) Deshaun Watson (Cle - QB)
10. (110) Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR)
11. (131) Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB)
12. (134) Kadarius Toney (KC - WR)
13. (155) Taysom Hill (NO - TE)
14. (158) Younghoe Koo (Atl - K)
15. (179) Kansas City (KC - DEF)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.