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Chris-A-Roni.'s Draft Report Card

--hidden-- | Drafted Round 17, Pick 199
A Grade
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The Chair Force Drafts Their Way to a High-Flying Second Place

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In the Rich Kotite's All Stars fantasy draft, The Chair Force soared above the competition with their impressive draft performance, earning them a well-deserved A grade. Despite being in the middle of the pack with the 7th draft order, they managed to secure a roster that is projected to finish in 2nd place with a stellar record of 10-4-0. With a projected point total of 2243.08, The Chair Force is set to dominate the league, leaving their opponents feeling as deflated as a punctured air mattress.

The Chair Force's draft strategy proved to be a force to be reckoned with. Their best pick came in the form of Derrick Henry, who they snagged at the 18th spot, well ahead of their ADP of 15. This steal of a pick is sure to be a game-changer for The Chair Force, propelling them to new heights. However, not every pick was a touchdown. Their worst pick was Christian Kirk, who was drafted at 66, much higher than their ADP of 87. Hopefully, this pick won't leave The Chair Force feeling as uncomfortable as sitting on a wobbly chair.

ADP Analysis

Pick Number

Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.

Inside the Draft

Player Outlooks

TE - Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 19

A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.

RB - Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 14

It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.

RB - Round 3, Pick 31 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 32

Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.

QB - Round 4, Pick 42 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4

Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.

WR - Round 5, Pick 55 - Bye 5

2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 41

Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.

WR - Round 6, Pick 66 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 39

A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.

WR - Round 7, Pick 79 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 60

After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.

RB - Round 8, Pick 90 - Bye 6

2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 109

Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.

RB - Round 9, Pick 103 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 152

Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.

QB - Round 10, Pick 114 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 114 - 2022 Rank: 11

Typically when each season ends, Cousins puts up very good seasonal numbers. It's the week-to-week ride that can be very problematic for fantasy managers. He threw for the second-most yardage of his career last year, but don't forget we're in a 17-game season these days, so those numbers can be skewed a bit. Cousins threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was his highest total in a season to go along with 29 touchdowns. And although he's great for having explosive games, Cousins had three games with at least three touchdown passes, he often goes flat. He had eight games in which he threw zero or one touchdown. Cousins also had three games in which he failed to surpass 175 passing yards. Still not enough? He had four games with multiple interceptions. Cousins' ceiling games make him an excellent option in best ball leagues. But in redraft leagues, the implosion games are often unpredictable, and that makes him better as a QB2 in leagues that start a single quarterback. He's obviously a great option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.

TE - Round 11, Pick 127 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 751

Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.

DEF - Round 12, Pick 138 - Bye 7

2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 66

Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,

WR - Round 13, Pick 151 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 108 - 2022 Rank: 73

Jones is coming off a breakout season in which he set career highs in targets (121), catches (82) and receiving yards (823). He also had five touchdowns, which was the 28-year-old's second most behind his seven TDs with Buffalo in 2018. After being used deeper downfield by the Bills and Raiders, Jones' increased success coincided with a change in role after joining Jacksonville. His average depth of target dropped from 14.0 yards with the Raiders in 2021 to 8.6 with the Jaguars in 2022, as Trevor Lawrence peppered Jones with targets underneath and set the wide receiver up to do damage after the catch. Jones should play a similar role in 2023, though matching last season's volume will be difficult, as Jacksonville added WR Calvin Ridley while retaining WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, who soaked up 133 and 98 targets in 2022. If Jones can cut down on his drops -- he led the league with 13 last season - and improve on last year's lackluster 6.8 yards per target, he could replicate last year's production despite the expected dip in volume.

K - Round 14, Pick 162 - Bye 13

2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 131

Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.

WR - Round 15, Pick 175 - Bye 9

2023 Rank: 209 - 2022 Rank: 103

Peoples-Jones, a 2020 sixth-round pick, progressed from being a part-time deep threat his first two seasons to a regular starter in 2022. In 17 games played last season, he had a receiving line of 61 catches, 839 yards and three touchdowns on 96 targets. Compared to the previous year, Peoples-Jones had 38 more targets but recorded a drop in his average depth of target (aDOT) from 15.4 to 11.7. Furthermore, his yards per catch (YPC) and yards per target (YPT) decreased from 17.6 to 13.8 and 10.3 to 8.7, respectively. However, the Browns swung a trade this offseason for fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore, a 2021 second-round pick who is much smaller than Peoples-Jones at 5-10, 178, but also far more agile and faster (4.35 40). Although it's unclear whether Peoples-Jones and Moore will compete for a starting job or if Moore will be limited to being the No. 3 receiver in the slot, there is tough target competition behind Amari Cooper this year either way. The Browns also added WR Cedric Tillman in the third round to assist QB Deshaun Watson, and they already have a legitimate receiving threat at tight end in David Njoku.

RB - Round 16, Pick 186 - Bye 10

2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 236

It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.

WR - Round 17, Pick 199 - Bye 11

2023 Rank: 237 - 2022 Rank: 215

Pierce is coming off a boom-or-bust rookie season. The 2022 second-round pick out of Cincinnati caught 41 of 78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns, including seven catches for 243 yards and a touchdown on his 15 deep targets. Pierce ranked third on the team in targets as a rookie, but the speedy big-play threat is penciled into a starting role opposite Michael Pittman (141 targets in 2022) after the Colts let Parris Campbell (91 targets) walk in free agency. Indianapolis added slot receivers Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie to replace Campbell, but the team's most impactful offseason changes came under center. The Colts parted ways with Matt Ryan and brought in fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, as well as free agent Gardner Minshew. Richardson's strong arm and Pierce's 4.41 speed could make for an intriguing downfield combination, but it remains to be seen if the raw rookie has the accuracy to consistently link up with the second-year wideout.

Team Forecast

Bye Week Points Lost

Points

Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.

Schedule by Opponent Points

Week

Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.

Chris-A-Roni.
1. (7) Travis Kelce (KC - TE)
2. (18) Derrick Henry (Bal - RB)
3. (31) Aaron Jones (Min - RB)
4. (42) Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
5. (55) Tyler Lockett (Sea - WR)
6. (66) Christian Kirk (Jax - WR)
7. (79) Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind - WR)
8. (90) AJ Dillon (GB - RB)
9. (103) Samaje Perine (Den - RB)
10. (114) Kirk Cousins (Atl - QB)
11. (127) Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE)
12. (138) Dallas (Dal - DEF)
13. (151) Zay Jones (Jax - WR)
14. (162) Tyler Bass (Buf - K)
15. (175) Donovan Peoples-Jones (Det - WR)
16. (186) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC - RB)
17. (199) Alec Pierce (Ind - WR)

Best Draft

Best Draft is awarded to the team with the most projected season points based on weekly optimal starting lineups.

League Draft Grades

Draft Day Projected Standings

Draft Day Power Rankings

Power Rankings are based on projected points for the remainder of the season.